Assessing future hydrologic extremes using an integrated hydrology and river operations model in the Russian River watershed

Elsevier | January 6th, 2026

This paper introduces an integrated hydrology and river operations model for the Russian River watershed. This model is distinct from models in previous studies because i

This paper introduces an integrated hydrology and river operations model for the Russian River watershed. This model is distinct from models in previous studies because it represents surface-groundwater interactions and uses climate forcings to estimate dynamic water use demands that are superimposed onto both reservoir operations and water supply constraints. The model was used to examine three historical (1990–2015) and eight future (2016–2099) water use and climate change scenarios.

Assessing Natural Recharge in Indian Wells Valley, California: A Basin Characterization Model Case Study

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | March 18th, 2026

The communities in Indian Wells Valley (IWV), in the northern Mojave Desert in California, rely on groundwater for domestic and agricultural use. Mountain front recharge

The communities in Indian Wells Valley (IWV), in the northern Mojave Desert in California, rely on groundwater for domestic and agricultural use. Mountain front recharge from the surrounding Sierra Nevada is the main source of natural recharge to the valley. Increased urbanization, agricultural development, and groundwater pumping during recent decades put IWV in a state of critical overdraft. The U.S. Geological Survey Basin Characterization Model, version 8 (BCMv8) was used to evaluate historical and future climate and hydrologic conditions in IWV. The BCMv8 estimated natural recharge in IWV at 10.7 million cubic meters (Mm3) per year for the period from 1981 to 2010. Future patterns of water balance variables using three future climate scenarios, hot- wet, hot-dry, and warm-moderately wet, were calculated for mid-century (2040–69) and end-of-century (2070–99) periods. Results for both wet models projected an increase in recharge in both periods, whereas the hot-dry model projected a decrease in recharge in both periods. All models reported a large increase in seasonal variability in recharge, indicating more future availability and frequent occurrences of drought years. All climate scenarios projected an increase in climatic water deficit in both periods. These increases in irrigation demand and variability of water supply highlight the importance of strategic management planning for the sustainability of water resources in IWV.

Assessing potential effects of changes in water use with a numerical groundwater-flow model of Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, and Alpine County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 2012

Assessing risk of groundwater pollution exposure from sea level rise in California

Publisher not available | June 12th, 2025

Sea level rise (SLR) will cause a groundwater table rise in coastal aquifers, and this can trigger exposure to toxic chemicals via direct contact with contaminated water

Sea level rise (SLR) will cause a groundwater table rise in coastal aquifers, and this can trigger exposure to toxic chemicals via direct contact with contaminated water or through vapor intrusion. This study presents deep learning- and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) models to assess risk of polluted groundwater exposure due to SLR in California. Our method quantifies risk based on (1) SLR-related groundwater rise projections and (2) a prioritization of 2296 hazardous sites according to a geochemical indexing algorithm applied to groundwater data from the California State Water Resources Control Board. Our results indicate that nearly half a million people in California may be potentially exposed to marginal or poor groundwater by the end of the century. We show that feature collinearity renders numerous indicators on socioeconomics, demography, health and environment as dependent- and thus insignificant risk predictors. Our XAI models furthermore indicate that features on total population and features related to demographics (households of color and low income) and pollution source (proximity to wastewater dischargers) exert strongest controls on risk. However performance differences between randomly- and spatially cross-validated models highlight generalization challenges due to spatial autocorrelation. While the former model yields better results for California-specific analysis, only the latter model should be applied for unbiased risk assessments in other coastal regions.

Assessing the accuracy of OpenET satellite-based evapotranspiration data to support water resource and land management applications

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 15th, 2024

Remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data offer strong potential to support data-driven approaches for sustainable water management. However, practitioners require rob

Remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data offer strong potential to support data-driven approaches for sustainable water management. However, practitioners require robust and rigorous accuracy assessments of such data. The OpenET system, which includes an ensemble of six remote sensing models, was developed to increase access to field-scale (30 m) ET data for the contiguous United States. Here we compare OpenET outputs against data from 152 in situ stations, primarily eddy covariance flux towers, deployed across the contiguous United States. Mean absolute error at cropland sites for the OpenET ensemble value is 15.8 mm per month (17% of mean observed ET), mean bias error is −5.3 mm per month (6%) and r2 is 0.9. Results for shrublands and forested sites show higher inter-model variability and lower accuracy relative to croplands. High accuracy and multi-model convergence across croplands demonstrate the utility of a model ensemble approach, and enhance confidence among ET data practitioners, including the agricultural water resource management community.

Assessing the Microclimate Effects and Irrigation Water Requirements of Mesic, Oasis, and Xeric Landscapes

Hydrology (MDPI) | June 10th, 2022

Urban irrigation is an essential process in land–atmosphere interactions. It is one of the uncertain parameters of urban hydrology due to various microclimates. This s

Urban irrigation is an essential process in land–atmosphere interactions. It is one of the uncertain parameters of urban hydrology due to various microclimates. This study investigated the microclimate effects and irrigation water requirements of three landscape types in an arid region of Phoenix, AZ. The microclimate effect encompassed surface temperature, air temperature, and wind speed. The simulations of the three landscapes were conducted using ENVI-met software for the hottest day of the year (23 June 2011). The simulated model was validated using ground data. Results show that the mesic landscape induced cooling effects, both in the daytime and nighttime, by reducing surface and air temperatures. However, the mesic landscape showed highwater consumption because of a high leaf area density. The oasis landscape showed 2 degrees C more daytime cooling than the mesic landscape, but the nighttime warming (surface temperature) was comparable to the xeric landscape. The potential irrigation water requirement was 1 mm/day lower than the mesic landscape. Moreover, microclimate conditions varied spatially in each neighborhood. The xeric landscape showed lower wind speeds and air temperatures between the buildings. The wind speed variations in the three landscapes were inconclusive due to differences in building orientations and discrepancies in trees’ heights. The findings can have implications for restricting the municipal irrigation budget. In addition, they can help water managers in choosing a landscape in urban areas. Urban scientists can adapt the methodology to quantify urban ET in arid regions.

Assessment of Interconnected Subbasins

Butte County | June 30th, 2017

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) requires groundwater sustainability agencies (GSAs) to develop groundwater sustainability plans (GSPs) that achieve sust

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) requires groundwater sustainability agencies (GSAs) to develop groundwater sustainability plans (GSPs) that achieve sustainable groundwater management within 20 years of adoption. All critically overdrafted basins must adopt GSPs by January 31, 2020; all other medium and high priority basins must complete GSPs by January 31, 2022. Since many subbasins are hydrologically connected to adjoining subbasins, sustainable groundwater management will require accounting for groundwater interactions with adjoining subbasins. Often, adjoining subbasins will use different analytical methods or apply different levels of technical rigor. Many GSAs are concerned that different methodologies for developing interbasin flows can lead to different results that will call into question the ability to achieve sustainability and would potentially create issues with SGMA compliance. This effort evaluated opportunities and barriers for agencies to account for interconnected basin dynamics through the collaboration of technical experts focused on a portion of the northern Sacramento Valley Integrated Regional Water Management (NSVIRWM) Plan area. As interbasin flows (i.e., groundwater flow between interconnected basins) cannot be directly measured, the project reviewed available tools to investigate how they may or may not be suitable for use in estimating interbasin flows within the region. This process highlighted areas for local agencies to consider in addressing interbasin issues, developed a framework for analysis in other areas of the state, and identified areas where the state and federal government can assist local agencies implementing SGMA. This report is developed to provide summary level information appropriate for decision makers, with more detailed technical information and examples provided in the appendices or by reference. Interbasin flow is groundwater entering or exiting a defined subbasin through its boundaries in the subsurface and may vary significantly in space and time based on the dynamics of inflow and outflow from the basins. Interbasin flows are driven by differences in groundwater levels (i.e. head gradients) across the basin boundary. Groundwater levels are, in turn, impacted by processes on the land surface. Land use and crop acreages drive water demand in a subbasin and indirectly drive groundwater pumping, which has a direct effect on groundwater levels (i.e., groundwater heads). The direction and magnitude of interbasin flow depends on the groundwater head gradient across the basin boundary and the conductivity of the aquifer materials. It is widely recognized that the groundwater subbasins in the Sacramento Valley, and throughout the Central Valley, are interconnected to varying degrees. The Sacramento Valley Groundwater Basin includes many subbasins, extends over a wide geographic area, and includes numerous established and eligible GSAs. With interconnected subbasins, management decisions and actions in one subbasin may influence one or more adjoining subbasins. Such influence may positively or negatively impact sustainability. Thus, interbasin flows become critical to both GSAs’ development of GSPs and to DWR reviewing GSPs.

Assessment of Interconnected Subbasins: Regional Collaboration and Model Selection Process

Groundwater Resources Association of California (GRA) | October 3rd, 2017

In basins with complex spatial and temporal variations in water budget components, integrated groundwater-surface water modeling is the best approach to quantify and eval

In basins with complex spatial and temporal variations in water budget components, integrated groundwater-surface water modeling is the best approach to quantify and evaluate interbasin groundwater flows.

Associations between per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and county-level cancer incidence between 2016 and 2021 and incident cancer burden attributable to PFAS in drinking water in the United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 9th, 2025

Assumptions and Estimates for California Water Plan Update 2018

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | April 13th, 2017

The California Water Plan (Water Plan) is the State government’s strategic plan for sustainably managing and developing water resources statewide for current and future

The California Water Plan (Water Plan) is the State government’s strategic plan for sustainably managing and developing water resources statewide for current and future generations. The Water Plan development process provides a planning framework for elected officials, agencies, tribes, water and resource managers, businesses, academia, stakeholders, and the public to collaborate on findings and recommendations and make informed decisions regarding California’s water future. The goal for each update of the Water Plan is to receive broad input and support from Californians, meet California Water Code (Water Code) requirements, guide State investments, and advance integrated water management and regional sustainability.  This draft report and the related data posted online comprise the Draft Assumptions and Estimates Report (Draft A&E Report) for California Water Plan Update 2018 (Update 2018). The Draft A&E Report presents key assumptions and estimates, data and data sources, and companion plans that will be considered for the preparation of Update 2018. The report increases the transparency of the Water Plan process by disclosing the data, tools, methods, and references used to prepare Update 2018. This report meets Water Code requirements, which stipulate that the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) must publish the Water Plan’s assumptions and estimates one year prior to the plan’s publication, as well as provide an opportunity for public review and comment. Water code requirements for the Draft A&E Report are presented below.  The Draft A&E Report also describes the approach DWR is taking to improve the analytical tools and data being used to develop Update 2018. DWR will continue to update Draft A&E Report content online during the remainder of the Update 2018 development process. A draft glossary for Update 2018 is included as part of this report, and the final version of that glossary will be published as a component of Update 2018. The final data and data sources will be included in the Update 2018 reference and technical information.