Loss and Transformation of Coastal Wetlands due to Global Change in the Conterminous United States: Past, Present, and Future

Publisher not available | June 26th, 2026

Coastal wetlands are being transformed by global change, impacting the ecological and societal benefits provided by these ecosystems. Synthesizing knowledge of historical

Coastal wetlands are being transformed by global change, impacting the ecological and societal benefits provided by these ecosystems. Synthesizing knowledge of historical and expected future transformations in coastal wetlands can help inform forward-looking planning and stewardship efforts. Here, we review anticipated future ecological transformations in coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States and contrast them with past transformations. We examine trends at the national scale but focus in detail on the following six wetland-rich regions: (1) Everglades, (2) Mississippi River delta, (3) Chesapeake Bay, (4) San Francisco Estuary, (5) Puget Sound, and (6) Great Lakes. This review is among the first to integrate and compare coastal wetland transformations in the Great Lakes with their oceanic counterparts. Between 1850 and 1970, wetland losses across the nation were high because coastal wetlands were viewed as flooded wastelands needing to be drained, filled, or excavated to make room for other land uses. Over the last 50 years, growing public and scientific appreciation of the ecological and societal benefits provided by coastal wetlands has fostered tremendous gains in wetland restoration and legal protection. Looking to the future, climate change and accelerated sea-level rise have become critical threats to coastal wetlands and are emerging as major drivers of ecological loss and transformation. This review synthesizes regional knowledge regarding past, present, and future changes to help coastal scientists, environmental managers, and the public better anticipate and prepare for future coastal wetland transformations due to climate change, accelerated sea-level rise, land-use change, and other aspects of global change.

Evaluating groundwater quality influences from oil field operations and other anthropogenic activities in an urban setting, Santa Fe Springs, California

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | June 22nd, 2026

Groundwater quality is often affected by anthropogenic activities in urban settings. This study examines groundwater quality in and around the Santa Fe Springs Oil Field

Groundwater quality is often affected by anthropogenic activities in urban settings. This study examines groundwater quality in and around the Santa Fe Springs Oil Field in Los Angeles County, California, where oil and gas production commonly intersects with high density industrial, commercial and residential land uses. Utilizing a combination of new and historical data, we evaluated potential pathways that would allow for oil field formation fluids to migrate into groundwater and whether mixing may have occurred based on the distribution of groundwater and oil field formation fluid tracers in samples. Samples were analyzed for a wide array of constituents including volatile organic compounds, light hydrocarbons, major ions, and various isotopic compositions. Despite evidence of oil field infrastructure providing potential pathways of migration via uncemented annular spaces, casing breaches and historical disposal of oil field formation water in surface ponds, the distribution and occurrence of stable isotopes of water, chloride, boron, and total dissolved solids do not indicate mixing of oil field formation water and groundwater. However, methane isotopic signatures and the presence of heavier alkanes suggest gas from oil-bearing formations have migrated from depth via oil field well infrastructure. Volatile organic compound detections were mainly from manufactured compounds unrelated to oil and gas production, with a relatively limited number of petroleum hydrocarbons also detected. Volatile organic compounds were generally found in wells tapping shallow, modern aged groundwater, indicating anthropogenic activities occurring at or near land surface as the source. Study results suggest that while oil field infrastructure provides migration pathways for oil field formation fluids to be introduced into groundwater, urban land uses not related to oil and gas production are the primary drivers of groundwater quality degradation.

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the San Joaquin Valley Kern County subbasin domestic-supply aquifer study unit, 2022—California GAMA Priority Basin Project

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | May 19th, 2026

The quality of water accessed by domestic wells (here referred to as domestic groundwater resources) in the San Joaquin Valley Kern County subbasin (basin number 5-022.14

The quality of water accessed by domestic wells (here referred to as domestic groundwater resources) in the San Joaquin Valley Kern County subbasin (basin number 5-022.14) was assessed as part of the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project (GAMA-PBP), in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board. Kern County is at the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley in California, and about 30,000 residents are estimated to use privately owned domestic wells for drinking water. Domestic wells typically draw from shallower parts of the aquifer system than public-supply wells and can be more vulnerable to effects from surface activities. Kern County is host to a highly productive agricultural industry, with Bakersfield as the main urban center. The Kern River runs through Bakersfield from the southern Sierra Nevada and intersects the Kern Water Bank, one of the largest groundwater banking operations in California, at the Kern River Intertie. The section of the Kern River running through the Kern Water Bank is dry most years. Kern County also encompasses some of the most productive oil and gas basins in California, with extensive underground and surface disposal of oil-field wastewater.

Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 8th, 2026

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwat

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwater–streamflow interactions above 2,500 m, new measurements in the Upper Colorado River headwaters indicate declining groundwater storage that is dated decades to millennia old. Here we use integrated hydrologic modelling spanning water years 2015–2021 to determine whether the loss of old-age groundwater buffers streamflow during low-snow years and whether that loss is exacerbated with warming. Results show that old-groundwater contributions to streams remain relatively steady through time, unlike the more variable contributions from young groundwater. Numerical experiments of increased surface air temperatures (+2.5 °C and +4 °C) increase rain–snow fractions and evapotranspiration and decrease runoff ratio by 2–3% per degree Celsius increase. As streamflow declines with warming, the age of groundwater supporting it gets older, in part owing to intermediate-aged (1–3 year) groundwater declining twice as fast. Simulations show that water table depths at higher elevations (>3,700 m) decline disproportionately and fail to recover even during wet years. These findings suggest altered groundwater–streamflow interactions with warming and snow loss, with implications for water resources.

Cascading impacts of natural disasters in a connected world

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | March 26th, 2026

Decadal Shifts in Groundwater Age Detected by Environmental Tracers Across California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 23rd, 2026

Groundwater age tells us how long water has been underground since it last infiltrated the land surface. Monitoring changes in groundwater age helps identify aquifer stre

Groundwater age tells us how long water has been underground since it last infiltrated the land surface. Monitoring changes in groundwater age helps identify aquifer stress from pumping or shifts toward new hydrologic conditions—key factors for sustainable water management. In this study, changes in groundwater age were tested by comparing chemical tracer data collected about 10 years apart from hundreds of wells across California. Chemical tracers are dissolved substances with known historical records and decay rates that can be used to infer groundwater age. Using models that estimate expected tracer concentrations under steady-age conditions, this study found that nearly one-third of the wells showed significant changes in groundwater age over time. These changes were most common in areas with heavy agricultural use, where pumping and irrigation have altered how water moves underground. These shifts in age can also affect water quality, especially when younger water carries contaminants like nitrate. By using a statistical modeling approach, this study shows how changes in groundwater age can help identify aquifers under stress and support efforts to manage groundwater sustainably.

Assessing Natural Recharge in Indian Wells Valley, California: A Basin Characterization Model Case Study

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | March 18th, 2026

The communities in Indian Wells Valley (IWV), in the northern Mojave Desert in California, rely on groundwater for domestic and agricultural use. Mountain front recharge

The communities in Indian Wells Valley (IWV), in the northern Mojave Desert in California, rely on groundwater for domestic and agricultural use. Mountain front recharge from the surrounding Sierra Nevada is the main source of natural recharge to the valley. Increased urbanization, agricultural development, and groundwater pumping during recent decades put IWV in a state of critical overdraft. The U.S. Geological Survey Basin Characterization Model, version 8 (BCMv8) was used to evaluate historical and future climate and hydrologic conditions in IWV. The BCMv8 estimated natural recharge in IWV at 10.7 million cubic meters (Mm3) per year for the period from 1981 to 2010. Future patterns of water balance variables using three future climate scenarios, hot- wet, hot-dry, and warm-moderately wet, were calculated for mid-century (2040–69) and end-of-century (2070–99) periods. Results for both wet models projected an increase in recharge in both periods, whereas the hot-dry model projected a decrease in recharge in both periods. All models reported a large increase in seasonal variability in recharge, indicating more future availability and frequent occurrences of drought years. All climate scenarios projected an increase in climatic water deficit in both periods. These increases in irrigation demand and variability of water supply highlight the importance of strategic management planning for the sustainability of water resources in IWV.

Mono Lake in a Changing Climate

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) | March 17th, 2026

This summary report provides an accessible overview of the methods and takeaways from using the University of California, Los Angeles Mono Lake Model (UCLA-MLM) to study

This summary report provides an accessible overview of the methods and takeaways from using the University of California, Los Angeles Mono Lake Model (UCLA-MLM) to study Mono Lake’s water level for varying export and climate conditions. This is also intended to be a summary of the main report. This summary was created for policy makers, organizers, community advocates and members of the public.

Development of a Mono Lake Water Level Model and Projections across the 21st Century

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) | March 17th, 2026

The UCLA Mono Lake Model (UCLA-MLM) was developed to assess how climate-driven changes and existing and alternative export criteria influence Mono Lake’s water level th

The UCLA Mono Lake Model (UCLA-MLM) was developed to assess how climate-driven changes and existing and alternative export criteria influence Mono Lake’s water level throughout the 21st century.

Appendix for the Development of a Mono Lake Water Level Model and Projections across the 21st Century

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) | March 17th, 2026

Main Report: Development of a Mono Lake Water Level Model and Projections across the 21st Century; Summary: Mono Lake in a Changing Climate

Main Report: Development of a Mono Lake Water Level Model and Projections across the 21st Century; Summary: Mono Lake in a Changing Climate