Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 26th, 2017

Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region

Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate’s response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10–23 and 10–45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth system model along with 3-dimensional ocean data assimilation and by prescribing the external radiative forcings, this system simulates the observed low-frequency variability of precipitation, soil water, and wildfire probabilities in close agreement with observational records and reanalysis data. The underlying source of multi-year predictability can be traced back to variations of the Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, external radiative forcings, and the low-pass filtering characteristics of soils.

Multiscale drivers of extreme southern California flooding: ENSO, MJO, North Pacific jet, and atmospheric rivers

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 20th, 2025

Extreme rainfall and flooding, driven by a powerful atmospheric river (AR) and a persistent Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), hit Southern California in February 2024 duri

Extreme rainfall and flooding, driven by a powerful atmospheric river (AR) and a persistent Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), hit Southern California in February 2024 during the 2023–2024 El Niño, affecting over 10 million people. ARs are key contributors to extreme rainfall and flooding along the U.S. West Coast. Although the AR-MJO link has been documented, its spatio-temporal variability remains a major forecasting and risk-management challenge. Combining precipitation, stream gauge and demographic data, we quantify the physical drivers and population exposure to this extreme event. Leveraging a Lagrangian MJO precipitation tracking algorithm, we unravel the multiscale interactions responsible for the AR’s development. El Niño favored a large, long-lived MJO that interacted with the North Pacific Jet (NPJ) over more than three weeks. The MJO convective outflow modulated the NPJ by inducing negative potential vorticity advection along the tropopause. The ensuing NPJ extension and acceleration induced explosive cyclogenesis, whose AR-driven moisture transport resulted in extreme rainfall.

Napa County Baseline Data Report, Chapter 16, Groundwater Hydrology

Napa County | November 30th, 2005

This chapter summarizes the basic groundwater hydrology of Napa County and documents the construction of a local integrated groundwater model. The groundwater hydrology a

This chapter summarizes the basic groundwater hydrology of Napa County and documents the construction of a local integrated groundwater model. The groundwater hydrology analysis and model development were designed to establish a baseline of existing conditions to support countywide programs.

National-Scale Flood Hazard Data Unfit for Urban Risk Management

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 19th, 2024

New Method for Estimating Landslide Losses from Major Winter Storms in California and Application to the ARkStorm Scenario

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | May 30th, 2014

ARkStorm is a statewide emergency planning scenario hypothesizing severe atmospheric river storms that transport huge amounts of moisture from the tropical Pacific to Cal

ARkStorm is a statewide emergency planning scenario hypothesizing severe atmospheric river storms that transport huge amounts of moisture from the tropical Pacific to California, where it falls as intense rain. The storm is projected to be similar to historic storms that have struck California in recent decades, but include extended periods of intense rainfall that approach the massive storms of 1861–1862 in total rainfall. A meteorological model for the ARkStorm has been developed from records of the 1969 and 1986 storms, both of which caused widespread landslides and severe damage in California. Estimating the numbers and impact of landslides from the ARkStorm requires models relating rainfall to the number and distribution of landslides and detailed records of the impact of landslides in past storms. Neither of these basic data sets exist. However, models that estimate the areas with the greatest susceptibility to landsliding do exist and can be combined with detailed maps of small areas showing the numbers of landslides triggered in individual storms. This study extrapolated from local landslide damage to private property in past storms by using a new statewide landslide susceptibility map. These methods may provide a framework for other landslide loss estimates, which can be greatly improved with additional data. Records of landslide losses to the state highway system are more complete than records of damage to private property; it was possible to assemble records for only the past 10 years. Even within these short records, the amount of damage to the state highway system appears to be correlated with rainfall. Projecting from these records, the amount of landslide damage to highways and other infrastructure from the ARkStorm can be estimated. Overall, it is estimated that the ARkStorm would trigger landslides that directly cause billions of dollars in damage.

Nitrogen Fertilizer Loading to Groundwater in the Central Valley

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | October 31st, 2017

Nitrate‐nitrogen is the most common pollutant found in the Central Valley aquifer system of California. This project provides a long‐term assessment of past and curr

Nitrate‐nitrogen is the most common pollutant found in the Central Valley aquifer system of California. This project provides a long‐term assessment of past and current potential nitrogen loading to groundwater on irrigated and natural lands across the entire Central Valley of California using a nitrogen mass balance approach; assesses the long‐term implications for groundwater quality in the Central Valley (Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, and Tulare Lake Basin); evaluates potential best management practices to reduce groundwater nitrogen loading from irrigated lands; and provides a planning tool to better understand local and regional groundwater quality response to specific best management practices and policy/regulatory actions. The project complements other work to assess the vulnerability of Central Valley groundwater to nitrate contamination, sources of nitrate in groundwater, and how to reduce source loading.

North American drought: Reconstructions, causes, and consequences

Earth Science Reviews (Elsevier) | January 3rd, 2007

Severe drought is the greatest recurring natural disaster to strike North America. A remarkable network of centuries-long annual tree-ring chronologies has now allowed fo

Severe drought is the greatest recurring natural disaster to strike North America. A remarkable network of centuries-long annual tree-ring chronologies has now allowed for the reconstruction of past drought over North America covering the past 1000 or more years in most regions. These reconstructions reveal the occurrence of past “megadroughts” of unprecedented severity and duration, ones that have never been experienced by modern societies in North America. There is strong archaeological evidence for the destabilizing influence of these past droughts on advanced agricultural societies, examples that should resonate today given the increasing vulnerability of modern water-based systems to relatively short-term droughts. Understanding how these megadroughts develop and persist is a timely scientific problem. Very recently, climate models have succeeded in simulating all of the major droughts over North America from the Civil War to the severe 1998–2004 drought in the western U.S. These numerical experiments indicate the dominating importance of tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in determining how much precipitation falls over large parts of North America. Of central importance to drought formation is the development of cool “La Niña-like” SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific region. This development appears to be partially linked to changes in radiative forcing over that region, which affects the Bjerknes feedback mechanism of the ENSO cycle there. Paradoxically, warmer conditions over the tropical Pacific region lead to the development of cool La Niña-like SSTs there, which is drought inducing over North America. Whether or not this process will lead to a greater prevalence of drought in the future as the world warms due to accumulating greenhouse gases is unclear at this time.

North American droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century: a history, simulation and implication for Mediaeval drought

Holocene (Sage Journals) | February 1st, 2006

Unlike the major droughts of the twentieth century that are readily identified in the instrumental record, similar events in the nineteenth century have to be identified

Unlike the major droughts of the twentieth century that are readily identified in the instrumental record, similar events in the nineteenth century have to be identified using a combination of proxy data, historical accounts and a sparse collection of early instrumental records. In the USA, three distinct periods of widespread and persistent drought stand out in these records for the latter half of the nineteenth century: 1856-1865, 1870-1877 and 1890-1896. Each of these events is shown to coincide with the existence of an anomalously cool, La Nifia-like tropical Pacific. To examine the physical mechanisms behind these droughts two ensembles of simulations with an atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM) were generated: the first forces an AGCM with the observed history of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) everywhere from 1856 to 2001 (the GOGA experiment), the second forces the AGCM only with tropical Pacific SSTs, being coupled to a two-layer entraining mixed layer (ML) ocean elsewhere (the POGA-ML experiment). Owing to a sparsity of instrumental precipitation data at this time, proxy evidence from tree rings is used as verification. A comparison of modelled soil moisture with tree-ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a proxy for soil moisture, from the North American Drought Atlas is made. Both the POGA-ML and GOGA ensemble means capture the three multi-year droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century, indicating that the droughts were SST forced. The similarity of the POGA-ML and GOGA simulations implies that the component of each drought signal that is forced by the SST is driven ultimately by the La Nifia-like tropical Pacific. The global atmosphere-ocean context of each of the mid to late-nineteenth century droughts reveals a zonally and hemispherically symmetric pattern consistent with forcing from the tropics. In addition, Rossby wave propagation from the cooler equatorial Pacific amplifies dry conditions over the USA. Finally, using published coral data for the last millennium to reconstruct a NINO 3.4 history, the modern-day relationship between NINO 3.4 and North American drought is applied to recreate two of the severest Mediaeval ‘drought epochs’ in the western USA. The large-scale spatial similarity to the Drought Atlas data demonstrates the potential link between a colder eastern equatorial Pacific and the persistent North American droughts of the Mediaeval period.

Numerical Simulation of Ground-Water Flow and Assessment of the Effects of Artificial Recharge in the Rialto–Colton Basin, San Bernardino County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 2001

Nutrient Chemistry in the Elizabeth Lake Subwatershed: Effects of Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems on Groundwater and Lake Water Quality, Los Angeles County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | April 16th, 2024

Nutrient (nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] chemistry) down-gradient from onsite wastewater treatment system (OWTS) was evaluated with a groundwater study in the area surr

Nutrient (nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] chemistry) down-gradient from onsite wastewater treatment system (OWTS) was evaluated with a groundwater study in the area surrounding Elizabeth Lake, the largest of three sag lakes within the Santa Clara River watershed of Los Angeles County, California. Elizabeth Lake is listed on the “303 (d) Impaired Waters List” for excess nutrients and is down-gradient from more than 600 OWTS. The primary objective of this study was to develop a conceptual hydrogeological model to determine if discharge from OWTS is transported into shallow groundwater within the Elizabeth Lake subwatershed and contributes nutrients to Elizabeth Lake in excess of the total maximum daily load limit.