Flood Management – California Water Library

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Assessing Causes and Consequences of Winter Surface Water Dynamics in California's Central Valley Using Satellite Remote Sensing

Wiley Online Library | June 3rd, 2025

Summary

California's Central Valley is increasingly vulnerable to winter floods. A comprehensive spatial baseline of flood extents is critical for inundation analyses that can en

California's Central Valley is increasingly vulnerable to winter floods. A comprehensive spatial baseline of flood extents is critical for inundation analyses that can enhance future flood predictions, but cloud cover has prevented the regular observation of surface water extents with optical satellite imagery. In this study, we leveraged the daily resolution of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data to create a continuous series of monthly Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWEmod) images across the Central Valley from January 2003 to January 2023. We used the timeseries to assess the climatic driving forces of winter (Oct–April) surface water variability at sub-basin and pixel scales. At the sub-basin scale, we evaluated the influences of winter precipitation, occurrence of atmospheric rivers, and antecedent soil moisture on monthly surface water extents and found that the greatest correspondence occurs in mid-winter (Dec–Feb); in contrast, non-precipitation drivers such as water management play a stronger role in autumn and spring. The pixel-level analysis identified the probabilities of precipitation-driven surface water occurrences in the Sacramento basin are highest along rivers, conveyance channels, and floodways, with higher probabilities under wetter antecedent soil moisture conditions. Precipitation-driven surface water occurrences are also common in leveed areas and outside flood boundaries designated by state and federal agencies where exposure of structures to inundation was larger in terms of their value. Finally, areas with more frequent precipitation-driven flooding have poor recharge potential but are commonly within 5 km of areas classified as having good potential. This study demonstrates a novel approach for exploring the utility of MODIS for understanding surface water dynamics in mid-winter, a period characterized by peak precipitation, flood risk, and surface water extent. This information can provide valuable insights for (1) assessing flood risks for infrastructure and populations, (2) identifying areas most suited to strategic water management investments to increase recharge, and (3) analyzing precipitation thresholds that trigger flooding to allow proactive water management strategies to minimize damage and maximize recharge.

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Assessing the climate‐scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 3rd, 2017

Summary

We have created a new seven‐decade‐long catalog of atmospheric river behavior land‐falling upon the west coast of North America. The catalog has been validated agai

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Atmospheric River Precipitation Enhanced by Climate Change: A Case Study of the Storm That Contributed to California's Oroville Dam Crisis

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 9th, 2022

Summary

California's reliance on precipitation from atmospheric rivers is expected to increase as our climate warms. Understanding how climate change is impacting this increasing

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Atmospheric rivers cause warm winters and extreme heat events

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 18th, 2024

Summary

Click here for a plain language summary and interview with the authors by Yale News.

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Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | December 4th, 2019

Summary

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extratropical storms that produce extreme precipitation on the west coasts of the world’s major landmasses. In the United States, ARs caus

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Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multi-model, global evaluation

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 1st, 2017

Summary

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play importantroles in the global water cycle and meteorological/hydrological extremes.

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Benefit Accounting of Nature-Based Solutions for Watersheds

Pacific Institute | March 1st, 2021

Summary

Nature-based solutions (NBS) have the potential to combat pressing global problems, including climate change, water security and biodiversity loss. This guide builds on

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Benefit Accounting of Nature-Based Solutions for Watersheds Landscape Assessment

United Nations (UN) | August 3rd, 2020

Summary

This landscape assessment is the outcome of Phase 1 of a tri-phased project and was designed to inform the path forward for engaging the private sector to invest in natu

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Brief communication: Meteorological and climatological conditions associated with the 9 January 2018 post-fire debris flows in Montecito and Carpinteria, California, USA

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, European Geosciences Union | November 19th, 2018

Summary

The Thomas Fire burned 114,078 ha in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, southern California, during December 2017–January 2018. On 9 January 2018, high-intensity rai

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Building Ecological Resilience in Highly Modified Landscapes

Oxford University Press (OUP) | November 7th, 2018

Summary

Ecological resilience is a powerful heuristic for ecosystem management in the context of rapid environmental change. Significant efforts are underway to improve

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