South Lahontan

Tree height explains mortality risk during an intense drought

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 26th, 2019

Forest mortality is accelerating due to climate change and the largest trees may be at the greatest risk, threatening critical ecological, economic, and social be

Forest mortality is accelerating due to climate change and the largest trees may be at the greatest risk, threatening critical ecological, economic, and social benefits. Here, we combine high-resolution airborne LiDAR and optical data to track tree-level mortality rates for ~2 million trees in California over 8 years, showing that tree height is the strongest predictor of mortality during extreme drought. Large trees die at twice the rate of small trees and environmental gradients of temperature, water, and competition control the intensity of the height-mortality relationship. These findings suggest that future persistent drought may cause widespread mortality of the largest trees on Earth.

Trend analysis of ground-water levels and spring discharge in the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada and California, 1960–2000

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 2002

Twenty-first Annual Report of the Mojave Basin Area Watermaster

Mojave Basin Area Watermaster | May 1st, 2015

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 14th, 2022

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effect

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate-model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought-/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes.

Two-dimensional, steady-state model of ground-water flow, Nevada Test Site and vicinity, Nevada- California: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 82-4085

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 1962

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 10th, 2021

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

Understanding End-of-Century Snowpack Changes Over California’s Sierra Nevada

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 29th, 2019

Updated Study Reporting Levels (SRLs) for Trace-Element Data Collected for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project, October 2009–October 2018

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | April 16th, 2020

Groundwater samples have been collected in California as part of statewide investigations of groundwater quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Groundwat

Groundwater samples have been collected in California as part of statewide investigations of groundwater quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Priority Basin Project (PBP) since 2004. The GAMA-PBP is being conducted in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board to assess and monitor the quality of groundwater resources used for public and domestic drinking-water supply and to improve public knowledge of groundwater quality in California. Quality-control samples (including but not limited to field, equipment, and source-solution blanks) were collected to evaluate and quantify the quality of the groundwater sample results. The GAMA-PBP previously determined study reporting levels (SRLs) for trace-element results based primarily on field blanks collected in California from May 2004 through March 2013. SRLs are raised reporting levels used to reduce the likelihood of reporting false detections attributable to contamination bias. The purpose of this report is to identify any changes in the pattern or magnitude of concentrations or detections in field blanks since the last evaluation that would require changing or ending the use of SRLs implemented in October 2009. Constituents analyzed were aluminum, antimony, arsenic, barium, beryllium, boron, cadmium, chromium, hexavalent chromium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, lithium, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, selenium, silver, strontium, thallium, uranium, vanadium, and zinc. For this review, data from 167 field blanks collected from October 2009 through October 2018 by the GAMA-PBP for trace elements were compiled. Based on a consistent pattern of decreasing cobalt and manganese concentrations in field blanks from 2009 to 2013, the GAMA-PBP decided to reevaluate all trace-element SRLs, effectively setting an end date for previously defined SRLs. Beginning October 2013, SRLs would be determined from field-blank data collected through October 2018. The detection frequency and upper limit of potential contamination bias (BD-90/90) were determined from field blanks for each trace element. The BD-90/90, that is, the upper 90-percent confidence limit of the 90th percentile concentration of potential extrinsic contamination, was calculated by assuming the binomial probability distribution. These results were compared to each constituent’s detection limit to determine whether an SRL was necessary to minimize the potential for detections in the groundwater samples, attributed principally to contamination bias. Results of the evaluation were used to set SRLs for trace-element data collected by the GAMA-PBP between October 2013 and October 2018. Trace elements prescribed an SRL based on this review were hexavalent chromium, cobalt, copper, lead, and zinc. This review also resulted in the removal of SRLs from iron, manganese, molybdenum, and nickel. Although an SRL for hexavalent chromium could not be evaluated in the earlier reviews because the data were not collected regularly until 2015, one was established herein as 0.34 micrograms per liter (μg/L). The SRL for cobalt, as previously implemented, had been to reject all results; it was changed to 0.16 μg/L following a reduction in cobalt field-blank detection frequency resulting from mitigation steps, starting in 2014, aimed at reducing contamination bias introduced by high-capacity capsule filters used during sample collection. The SRL for copper did not change, and the SRL for lead changed very little based on this review. Lastly, the SRL for zinc was lowered from 6.2 μg/L to 3.9 μg/L.

Updating California Water Laws to Address Drought and Climate Change

California Planning & Conservation League Foundation | February 3rd, 2022

Urban and Agricultural Water Use in California, 1960–2015

Pacific Institute | June 22nd, 2020

Water is the lifeblood of California. It provides for the household needs of 40 million people. It generates electricity and cools power plants. It supports one of the mo

Water is the lifeblood of California. It provides for the household needs of 40 million people. It generates electricity and cools power plants. It supports one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world and various commercial and industrial activities, ultimately fueling the fifth largest economy in the world. Water is also critical to the health and viability of the state’s diverse aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. This paper examines statewide urban and agricultural water-use trends from 1960 to 2015 using data from the California Department of Water Resources (DWR). We find that California has experienced a dramatic decoupling between water use and growth. Since 1967, California’s population has doubled, and its economic output has increased by a factor of five. Yet statewide water use increased by only 20 percent over this period due to improvements in urban and agricultural efficiency, as well as a shift to higher-value crops and less water-intensive commercial and industrial activities.  Despite positive signs, water use in California remains high. Across the state, rivers and streams are under stress from overuse, and groundwater is over-tapped. Climate change and continued growth are increasing pressure on the state’s water resources, including on water supply, demand, and quality. To address these challenges, we must continue and even expand efforts to improve the water-use efficiency of our homes, businesses, industries, and farms. Moreover, we urge the state to improve data collection and online systems to make data more easily, quickly, and readily available.