South Lahontan

A holistic stochastic model for precipitation events

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 7th, 2025

In the western United States, much of the annual precipitation falls during relatively few storm events. When precipitation is measured as daily (or hourly, etc.) accumul

In the western United States, much of the annual precipitation falls during relatively few storm events. When precipitation is measured as daily (or hourly, etc.) accumulations, these events appear as sequences of various durations. We describe a trivariate probability distribution and assert that it provides a natural description for the durations, magnitudes, and maximum intensities of such events. We show that this distribution, in its most straightforward application, indeed describes precipitation events composed of daily observations at most long-term weather stations across the western United States, allowing for a flexible assessment of specific event probabilities and return periods with respect to their three defining components. This characterization opens the door to further understanding of risk associated with out-of-sample meteorological events.

A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Groundwater Levels in California Reveals Ecosystems at Risk

Frontiers in Earth Science (Frontiers) | December 17th, 2021

Groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are increasingly threatened worldwide, but the shallow groundwater resources that they are reliant upon are seldom monitored. In t

Groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are increasingly threatened worldwide, but the shallow groundwater resources that they are reliant upon are seldom monitored. In this study, we used satellite-based remote sensing to predict groundwater levels under groundwater dependent ecosystems across California, USA. Depth to groundwater was modelled for a 35-years period (1985–2019) within all groundwater dependent ecosystems across the state (n = 95,135). Our model was developed within Google Earth Engine using Landsat satellite imagery, climate data, and field-based groundwater data [n = 627 shallow (< 30 m) monitoring wells] as predictors in a Random Forest model. Our findings show that 1) 44% of groundwater dependent ecosystems have experienced a significant long-term (1985–2019) decline in groundwater levels compared to 28% with a significant increase; 2) groundwater level declines have intensified during the most recent two decades, with 39% of groundwater dependent ecosystems experiencing declines in the 2003–2019 period compared to 27% in the 1985–2002 period; and 3) groundwater declines are most prevalent within GDEs existing in areas of the state where sustainable groundwater management is absent. Our results indicate that declining shallow groundwater levels may be adversely impacting California’s groundwater dependent ecosystems. Particularly where groundwater levels have fallen beneath plant roots or streams thereby affecting key life processes, such as forest recruitment/succession, or hydrological processes, such as streamflow that affects aquatic habitat. In the absence of groundwater monitoring well data, our model and findings can be used to help state and local water agencies fill in data gaps of shallow groundwater conditions, evaluate potential effects on GDEs, and improve sustainable groundwater management policy in California.

A New Technique for Modeling Land Subsidence Facilitates Better Groundwater Management

Stanford University | December 1st, 2019

Land subsidence – the sudden sinking or gradual settling of Earth’s surface – can occur naturally or be triggered by human activity. One of the most comm

Land subsidence – the sudden sinking or gradual settling of Earth’s surface – can occur naturally or be triggered by human activity. One of the most common human-affected factors is groundwater pumping, a practice that has been steadily increasing due to prolonged periods of drought. Groundwater pumping is so prevalent in some areas that it is severely compromising the quantity and quality of the groundwater as well as the physical structure of the land and aquifer capacity beneath it. Large-scale initiatives for putting water back into the ground, or groundwater recharge, are being implemented in some regions. However, groundwater resource managers still need better information to determine where the land is at greatest risk of subsidence as well as where recharge efforts would be the most effective. Integrating two reliable data gathering sources – helicopter-deployed systems (airborne electromagnetic or AEM technology) that measure electromagnetic fields and satellite-deployed systems (interferometric synthetic aperture radar or InSAR) to measure deformations – offers groundwater managers an improved method for more accurately modeling changes in the land surface related to the pumping and recharge of groundwater. Additionally, the ability to more precisely detect subsidence may offer an early warning system for declining groundwater levels.

A Path Forward for California’s Freshwater Ecosystems

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | December 2nd, 2019

Californians rely on freshwater ecosystems for many things: water supply, hydropower, recreation, fisheries, flood risk reduction, biodiversity, and more. These ecosystem

Californians rely on freshwater ecosystems for many things: water supply, hydropower, recreation, fisheries, flood risk reduction, biodiversity, and more. These ecosystems—and the social, economic and environmental benefits they provide—are part of the state’s natural infrastructure. But they are changing in undesirable ways in response to water and land use, pollution, introduction of non-native species, and a changing climate. Declines in native biodiversity are the most direct measure of these changes, with numerous species now protected by state and federal endangered species acts (ESAs) and many times more likely to need protection in future.  For the past 40 years, the ESAs have played a prominent role in managing the state’s freshwater ecosystems. While this approach has prevented extinctions, it also places an emphasis on reducing harm to listed species, rather than improving overall ecosystem condition necessary to recover their populations. And these laws are not forward-looking enough to help species adapt to changing climate and reduce future species listings. This approach also fuels controversy and litigation due to perceptions about trade-offs between species protection and economic uses of land and water.  To maintain the benefits that Californians derive from their freshwater ecosystems—and arrest the decline of native biodiversity—a new approach is needed. We recommend that the state adopt the principles and practices of ecosystem-based management. This involves the simultaneous management of water, land, and organisms to achieve a desired ecosystem condition that benefits both native biodiversity and human well-being. The goal of ecosystem-based planning is to develop a shared vision for the ecosystem, agreement upon a common set of facts, and a unified plan to achieve it. We are not proposing major reforms to state or federal endangered species acts. Rather, we recommend a shift in the way these acts are implemented.  Ecosystem-based management relies on robust governance frameworks that are transparent, collaborative, and supported by science and secure funding. Many programs are starting to adopt its principles and practices, but much more needs to be done. Actions needed to achieve ecosystem-based objectives include setting aside water budgets for the environment and using this water to improve ecosystem condition and create multiple benefits. Binding comprehensive agreements between regulatory agencies, stakeholders, and water users—developed as part of sustainable watershed management plans—should guide implementation. These plans can be used to align agency actions and permitting and can be adopted by the State Water Board as water quality control plans.  California needs to change course in how it manages freshwater ecosystems to protect the many beneficial uses they provide. Ecosystem-based management offers a more comprehensive, flexible, and adaptive approach, and one that is compatible with existing laws. We believe this approach is better able to improve ecosystem outcomes that benefit both people and nature and respond to today’s challenges while preparing for an uncertain future. 

A Review of the Hydrologic Response Mechanisms During Mountain Rain-on-Snow

Frontiers in Earth Science (Frontiers) | April 26th, 2022

Mountain rain-on-snow (ROS) generates large flooding events worldwide. Climate warming will enhance the frequency, magnitude, and widespread nature of these events. Past

Mountain rain-on-snow (ROS) generates large flooding events worldwide. Climate warming will enhance the frequency, magnitude, and widespread nature of these events. Past studies indicate rainfall, not snowmelt, typically drives much of the runoff response during ROS. However, there is substantial event-to-event variability—resulting from shifting atmospheric drivers and nuanced physical mechanisms governing water flow through a snowpack. Historically, turbulent fluxes were assumed to dominate the energy balance for snowmelt during ROS. Recent research nonetheless suggests that other components of the energy balance might be larger drivers depending on: 1) the time of year; 2) the elevation; and 3) the aspect of the slope. This mini review summarizes the literature on the physical processes governing ROS and proposes that moving forward we utilize the terms “active” and “passive” to describe a snowpack’s contribution (via snowmelt) to terrestrial water input (TWI) during ROS. Active snowpacks readily contribute meltwater to TWI via the energy balance, bolstering rainfall-runoff totals. Passive snowpacks do not melt, but simply convey rainwater through the snow matrix. In both snowpack cases, preferential flow paths enhance transmissivity. This proposed classification scheme will help researchers and water managers better communicate and interpret past findings, and aid in forecasting discussions of future events.

A State Role in Supporting Groundwater Trading with Safeguards for Vulnerable Users: Findings and Next Steps

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | May 18th, 2022

In those parts of California where groundwater pumping has long exceeded replenishment, people are striving to bring groundwater basins into sustainable conditions within

In those parts of California where groundwater pumping has long exceeded replenishment, people are striving to bring groundwater basins into sustainable conditions within 20 years, between 2040 and 2042, as the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) requires. In some areas, groundwater sustainability agencies (GSAs) – the local agencies tasked with sustainable groundwater management – are beginning to work with other entities and stakeholders to discuss and experiment with the idea of giving groundwater pumpers allocations – allowances to remove a certain amount of water from a groundwater basin – and allowing them to either use their allocation individually or trade allocations between specified parties. Ideally, groundwater trading could ease the economic disruption of cutting back the overall amount of water pumped from a groundwater basin; growers who have less need for pumping could sell their allocation to others willing to pay for it, helping buyers keep their operations functional while compensating sellers. But the concept of groundwater trading raises many questions: How would wetlands, streams, and other ecosystems fed by aquifers be treated in a groundwater trading program? Would operators of farms who lack the resources of larger neighbors be able to benefit from trading? How might trading affect people who depend upon a household well or communities that need reliable groundwater supplies for homes and businesses? How can GSAs work with local stakeholders to develop, implement, and oversee trading programs that help with sustainable groundwater management? There is a State interest behind all of these questions – and a clear need for a focused discussion about groundwater trading.

A three-dimensional numerical model of predevelopment conditions in the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 2002

A western United States snow reanalysis dataset over the Landsat era from water years 1985 to 2021

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 7th, 2022

Water stored in mountain snowpacks (i.e., snow water equivalent, SWE) represents an important but poorly characterized component of the terrestrial water cycle. The Weste

Water stored in mountain snowpacks (i.e., snow water equivalent, SWE) represents an important but poorly characterized component of the terrestrial water cycle. The Western United States snow reanalysis (WUS–SR) dataset is novel in its combination of spatial resolution (~500 m), spatial extent (31°–49° N; 102°–125° W), and temporal continuity (daily over 1985–2021). WUS–SR is generated using a Bayesian framework with model-based snow estimates updated through the assimilation of cloud-free Landsat fractional snow-covered area observations. Over the WUS, the peak SWE verification with independent in situ measurements show correlation coefficient, mean difference (MD), and root mean squared difference (RMSD) of 0.77, −0.15 m, and 0.28 m, respectively. The effects of forest cover and Landsat image availability on peak SWE are assessed. WUS–SR peak SWE is well correlated (ranging from 0.75 to 0.91) against independent lidar-derived SWE taken near April 1st, with MD

Achieving Groundwater Access for All: Why Groundwater Sustainability Plans are Failing Many Users

Groundwater Leadership Forum | July 3rd, 2023

California made a serious commitment to bring the most depleted groundwater basins back into balance when it passed the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) in 2

California made a serious commitment to bring the most depleted groundwater basins back into balance when it passed the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) in 2014. This commitment is being carried out at the local level through the formation of hundreds of new groundwater agencies, the launch of basin-level planning processes, and the creation of groundwater sustainability plans. This report summarizes the results of a scientific study published in Nature Communications. that analyzed the degree to which these groundwater plans equitably integrate and protect vulnerable groundwater users, and suggests course corrections in the ongoing SGMA process to ensure we are preparing our groundwater basins for a changed climate.

Achieving the Human Right to Water in California: An Assessment of the State's Community Water Systems

Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) | January 15th, 2021

The Human Right to Water Framework and Data Tool (CalHRTW 1.0) provides a consolidated, stand-alone, quantitative assessment of baseline conditions in the quality, acces

The Human Right to Water Framework and Data Tool (CalHRTW 1.0) provides a consolidated, stand-alone, quantitative assessment of baseline conditions in the quality, accessibility and affordability of California’s drinking water. This assessment can help screen for drinking water challenges and analyze changes over time and complements existing cumulative impacts analyses (e.g., CalEnviroScreen (OEHHA, 2021b)) by providing information at a greater level of detail regarding drinking water.