San Joaquin River

Chowchilla Subbasin Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) Groundwater Sustainablity Plan

Chowchilla Subbasin GSP Advisory Committee | January 1st, 2020

Civic Engagement and Water Data: How Can California Make Data Work for Decision Makers?

University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) | September 1st, 2020

 Much attention is focused on water data in California, and for good reason. California is struggling to make decisions that adapt its water systems to pressures such as

 Much attention is focused on water data in California, and for good reason. California is struggling to make decisions that adapt its water systems to pressures such as climate change and population growth. Fully informed decisions are impossible without accurate and accessible data and information to support them. California already produces immense amounts of water-related data. However, agencies and stakeholders currently struggle to bring these data together to support routine decision making. Overall, we lack any systematic understanding of whether and how existing data can support the needs of decision makers. 

Classifying California’s stream thermal regimes for cold-water conservation

PLOS | August 20th, 2021

Stream temperature science and management is rapidly shifting from single-metric driven approaches to multi-metric, thermal regime characterizations of streamscapes. Giv

Stream temperature science and management is rapidly shifting from single-metric driven approaches to multi-metric, thermal regime characterizations of streamscapes. Given considerable investments in recovery of cold-water fisheries (e.g., Pacific salmon and other declining native species), understanding where cold water is likely to persist, and how coldwater thermal regimes vary, is critical for conservation. California’s unique position at the southern end of cold-water ecosystems in the northern hemisphere, variable geography and hydrology, and extensive flow regulation requires a systematic approach to thermal regime classification. We used publicly available, long-term (> 8 years) stream temperature data from 77 sites across California to model their thermal regimes, calculate three temperature metrics, and use the metrics to classify each regime with an agglomerative nesting algorithm. Then, we assessed the variation in each class and considered underlying physical or anthropogenic factors that could explain differences between classes. Finally, we considered how different classes might fit existing criteria for cool- or cold-water thermal regimes, and how those differences complicate efforts to manage stream temperature through regulation. Our results demonstrate that cool- and cold-water thermal regimes vary spatially across California. Several salient findings emerge from this study. Groundwater-dominated streams are a ubiquitous, but as yet, poorly explored class of thermal regimes. Further, flow regulation below dams imposes serial discontinuities, including artificial thermal regimes on downstream ecosystems. Finally, and contrary to what is often assumed, California reservoirs do not contain sufficient cold-water storage to replicate desirable, reach-scale thermal regimes. While barriers to cold-water conservation are considerable and the trajectory of cold-water species towards extinction is dire, protecting reaches that demonstrate resilience to climate warming remains worthwhile.

Climate Action Plan Phase 1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan Update 2023

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 22nd, 2024

DWR developed the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan Update 2023 (Update 2023) to review its GHG reductions since Update 2020 and to update strategies for further re

DWR developed the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan Update 2023 (Update 2023) to review its GHG reductions since Update 2020 and to update strategies for further reduction consistent with legislative changes, including the GHG emissions reduction targets established in SB 1020 (2022) and SB 1203 (2022). It also includes DWR’s new role in emergency energy generation. Since the 2012 Plan was adopted, California’s wholesale electricity market has also seen a significant increase in renewable resources. To reflect this change and to align with industry practice in emission reporting, Update 2023 incorporates updated emission factors to determine emissions from unspecified market resources.

Climate Adaptation Master Plan for Water (CAMP4W)

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) | March 26th, 2025

To ensure the continued reliability of water supplies for the communities we serve, Metropolitan embarked on the development of a comprehensive Climate Adaptati

To ensure the continued reliability of water supplies for the communities we serve, Metropolitan embarked on the development of a comprehensive Climate Adaptation Master Plan for Water (CAMP4W), a comprehensive set of policy directives and decision-making tools that ensure the Board of Directors is equipped to consider climate risks to water supplies, water quality, infrastructure, operations, workforce, public health, and financial sustainability to its deliberations and investment decisions. It provides a roadmap to guide future investments and decision-making as we confront our new climate reality in the years and decades ahead.

Climate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: a case study from California’s Central Valley

Landscape Ecology (Springer) | January 7th, 2022

Concept California’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited wa

Concept California’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited water supplies and climate change will impact the long-term viability of these intensively managed habitats. Objectives Forecast the distribution, abundance, and connectivity of surface water and managed wetland habitats, using 5 spatially explicit (270 m2) climate/land use/water prioritization scenarios. Mapping potential future dynamic flooded habitat used by waterbirds and other wetland-dependent wildlife to inform management decisions. Methods We integrated a climate-driven hydrologic water use model with a spatially explicit land change model, to examine stakeholder-driven scenarios of future land change, climate, and water use and their impacts on future habitat availability. Results Declining water availability is the dominant driver of habitat loss across scenarios. The hot/dry scenarios showed the greatest declines in January flooded area by 2101—an important month for overwintering waterbirds. In contrast, higher water supplies in wet climates drive perennial cropland conversion and loss of potential habitat. Potential flooded cropland declined (25 and 33%) under warmer/wetter climate conditions due to this conversion to perennial crops, exposing habitat vulnerability. Conclusion Climate-driven loss of water availability had a greater impact on flooded habitat availability than land-use change. When combined, climate change and the conversion of potentially flooded cropland to perennial cropland will threaten future waterbird habitat particularly in January, the peak of the migratory bird season, even when habitat restoration goals are met. Stakeholder-informed scenario analysis can identify target areas for potential habitat change, vulnerability, and conservation.

Climate Change and the Delta

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | October 1st, 2016

Climate change amounts to a fast approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic

Climate change amounts to a fast approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. Future precipitation changes are less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporation and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include sea level rise, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflow, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision-making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal.

Climate Change and the Delta: A Synthesis (Public Review Draft)

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | March 23rd, 2018

The Delta Reform Act of 2009 (Water Code Section 85066) requires that the Delta Stewardship Council adopt a Delta Plan (the Plan) to achieve the coequal goals of providin

The Delta Reform Act of 2009 (Water Code Section 85066) requires that the Delta Stewardship Council adopt a Delta Plan (the Plan) to achieve the coequal goals of providing a more reliable water supply for California and protecting, restoring, and enhancing the Delta ecosystem (Water Code Section 85000). In the time since the Plan was adopted in 2013, a significant shift in State planning for Delta ecosystem protection, restoration, and enhancement has occurred, prompting review of the Delta Plan to  examine whether its strategies are still suited to achieve the ecological goals of the Delta Reform Act. As such, the Delta Stewardship Council (Council) is developing an amendment of the Plan’s Chapter 4, Protect, Restore, and Enhance the Delta Ecosystem. Council staff are reviewing the best-available science to inform amendment of Chapter 4 of the Delta Plan. To support this effort, Council staff have developed three science  synthesis papers. This paper focuses on the effects of climate change in the Delta and is accompanied by two other papers focused on the Delta ecosystem (terrestrial and  aquatic resources) and restoration. Climate change is of interest for the Chapter 4  amendment given recent rapid advancements in research on climate change and its  effects on the Delta ecosystem that have occurred since the Delta Plan was adopted in  2013 (Dettinger et al. 2016). Climate change has the potential to significantly affect the Delta ecosystem by raising  air and water temperatures, changing the timing and volume of flows into and through  the Delta, increasing tidal inundation with sea-level rise (SLR), and increasing salinity  intrusion into the Delta. Climate change is recognized as a global stressor in Chapter 4 of the 2013 Delta Plan, but the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems are  discussed only briefly and with limited consideration of management strategies that address the issue. Chapter 4 of the Delta Plan identifies five key stressors to the Delta  ecosystem and core strategies for addressing each. Climate change has interrelated  effects on all five core strategy areas: Delta flows, habitat, water quality, non-native 28 species, and hatcheries and harvest management. The Delta Reform Act specifies consideration of “the future impact of climate change and sea-level rise” (Water Code Section 85066), and identifies a restoration timeline horizon of 2100 (Water Code Section 85302). More generally, Executive Order B-30-15, signed by Governor Brown in April 2015, requires that State agencies incorporate climate change into planning and investment decisions, and that they prioritize natural infrastructure and actions for climate preparedness.

Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | August 20th, 2020

California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These autumn wildfires have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of stro

California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These autumn wildfires have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of strong offshore winds coincident with unusually dry vegetation enabled by anomalously warm conditions and late onset of autumn precipitation. In this study, we quantify observed changes in the occurrence and magnitude of meteorological factors that enable extreme autumn wildfires in California, and use climate model simulations to ascertain whether these changes are attributable to human-caused climate change. We show that state-wide increases in autumn temperature (~1 °C) and decreases in autumn precipitation (~30%) over the past four decades have contributed to increases in aggregate fire weather indices (+20%). As a result, the observed frequency of autumn days with extreme (95th percentile) fire weather—which we show are preferentially associated with extreme autumn wildfires—has more than doubled in California since the early 1980s. We further find an increase in the climate model-estimated probability of these extreme autumn conditions since ~1950, including a long-term trend toward increased same-season co-occurrence of extreme fire weather conditions in northern and southern California. Our climate model analyses suggest that continued climate change will further amplify the number of days with extreme fire weather by the end of this century, though a pathway consistent with the UN Paris commitments would substantially curb that increase. Given the acute societal impacts of extreme autumn wildfires in recent years, our findings have critical relevance for ongoing efforts to manage wildfire risks in California and other regions.

Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | August 12th, 2022

Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods. Here, we investigate the physical characteristics of

Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods. Here, we investigate the physical characteristics of “plausible worst case scenario” extreme storm sequences capable of giving rise to “megaflood” conditions using a combination of climate model data and high-resolution weather modeling. Using the data from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we find that climate change has already doubled the likelihood of an event capable of producing catastrophic flooding, but larger future increases are likely due to continued warming. We further find that runoff in the future extreme storm scenario is 200 to 400% greater than historical values in the Sierra Nevada because of increased precipitation rates and decreased snow fraction. These findings have direct implications for flood and emergency management, as well as broader implications for hazard mitigation and climate adaptation activities.