Central Coast

Tracking California’s sinking coast from space: Implications for relative sea-level rise

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 31st, 2020

Coastal vertical land motion affects projections of sea-level rise, and subsidence exacerbates flooding hazards. Along the ~1350-km California coastline, record

Coastal vertical land motion affects projections of sea-level rise, and subsidence exacerbates flooding hazards. Along the ~1350-km California coastline, records of high-resolution vertical land motion rates are scarce due to sparse instrumentation, and hazards to coastal communities are underestimated. Here, we considered a ~100-km-wide swath of land along California’s coast and performed a multitemporal interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis of large datasets, obtaining estimates of vertical land motion rates for California’s entire coast at ~100-m dimensions—a ~1000-fold resolution improvement to the previous record. We estimate between 4.3 million and 8.7 million people in California’s coastal communities, including 460,000 to 805,000 in San Francisco, 8000 to 2,300,00 in Los Angeles, and 2,000,000 to 2,300,000 in San Diego, are exposed to subsidence. The unprecedented detail and submillimeter accuracy resolved in our vertical land motion dataset can transform the analysis of natural and anthropogenic changes in relative sea-level and associated hazards.

Trading Sustainably: Critical Considerations for Local Groundwater Markets Under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act

University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) | June 1st, 2017

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), passed in 2014, is changing the way California manages its groundwater resources. SGMA calls for the creation of loc

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), passed in 2014, is changing the way California manages its groundwater resources. SGMA calls for the creation of local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) and tasks them with developing and implementing Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs) to achieve sustainable groundwater management. SGMA offers GSAs a broad palette of tools to choose from and significant flexibility to tailor their management activities to local conditions and needs. Because it allows GSAs to assign groundwater extraction allocations to pumpers and to authorize transfers of these allocations under certain circumstances, SGMA potentially opens the door for the development of local groundwater markets. In such a market, a willing seller might trade a portion of their groundwater extraction allocation to a willing buyer, allowing the buyer to pump groundwater in the seller’s stead.

Tree height explains mortality risk during an intense drought

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 26th, 2019

Forest mortality is accelerating due to climate change and the largest trees may be at the greatest risk, threatening critical ecological, economic, and social be

Forest mortality is accelerating due to climate change and the largest trees may be at the greatest risk, threatening critical ecological, economic, and social benefits. Here, we combine high-resolution airborne LiDAR and optical data to track tree-level mortality rates for ~2 million trees in California over 8 years, showing that tree height is the strongest predictor of mortality during extreme drought. Large trees die at twice the rate of small trees and environmental gradients of temperature, water, and competition control the intensity of the height-mortality relationship. These findings suggest that future persistent drought may cause widespread mortality of the largest trees on Earth.

Twentieth-century shifts in forest structure in California: Denser forests, smaller trees, and increased dominance of oaks

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | January 20th, 2015

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 14th, 2022

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effect

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate-model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought-/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes.

Two-dimensional and three-dimensional digital flow models of the Salinas Valley ground-water basin, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | November 16th, 1978

The Salinas Valley is a topographic and ground-water basin in central coastal California. The ground-water basin extends from Monterey Bay south­eastward along the Salin

The Salinas Valley is a topographic and ground-water basin in central coastal California. The ground-water basin extends from Monterey Bay south­eastward along the Salinas River to San Arda, a distance of 70 miles, and has a maximum thickness of 2,000 feet. Annual recharge to the ground-water basin, which is derived mostly from the Salinas River, is about 290,000 acre­feet. Annual discharge, which is mostly from pumpage but also includes the consumptive use of ground water by riparian vegetation along the Salinas River, is about 507,000 acre-feet. About 45 percent of the pumpage, or 217,000 acre-feet of water annually, returns to the ground-water system. A group of interacting hydrologic models was developed for the Salinas Valley. These models include the small-stream model, river model, two­dimensional ground-water model, and three-dimensional ground-water model. The small-stream model simulates ground-water recharge from small streams that are tributary to the Salinas River. The river model simulates ground­water recharge from and surface-water discharge in the Salinas River. The two-dimensional and three-dimensional ground-water models simulate hydraulic head in the ground-water basin. The ground-water models were calibrated by comparing water level com­puted by the models to the corresponding measured water level for both steady-state and transient-state simulations. For the steady-state simulation, which was used to calibrate transmissivity for the two-dimensional model and hydraulic conductivity for the three-dimensional model, the median deviation of the model-generated water level from measured water level was 6 and 5 feet for the two-dimensional and three-dimensional models, respectively. For the transient-state simulation, which was used to calibrate storage coefficient for the two-dimensional model and specific storage for the three-dimensional model, the median deviation of the model-generated water level (at the end of a 3-year calibration period) from measured water level was 6 feet for both models.

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 10th, 2021

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

Update on an Analysis of a Potential Groundwater Storage and Recovery Program in the Carpinteria Groundwater Basin

Montecito Water District (MWD) | March 11th, 2025

Updated Study Reporting Levels (SRLs) for Trace-Element Data Collected for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project, October 2009–October 2018

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | April 16th, 2020

Groundwater samples have been collected in California as part of statewide investigations of groundwater quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Groundwat

Groundwater samples have been collected in California as part of statewide investigations of groundwater quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Priority Basin Project (PBP) since 2004. The GAMA-PBP is being conducted in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board to assess and monitor the quality of groundwater resources used for public and domestic drinking-water supply and to improve public knowledge of groundwater quality in California. Quality-control samples (including but not limited to field, equipment, and source-solution blanks) were collected to evaluate and quantify the quality of the groundwater sample results. The GAMA-PBP previously determined study reporting levels (SRLs) for trace-element results based primarily on field blanks collected in California from May 2004 through March 2013. SRLs are raised reporting levels used to reduce the likelihood of reporting false detections attributable to contamination bias. The purpose of this report is to identify any changes in the pattern or magnitude of concentrations or detections in field blanks since the last evaluation that would require changing or ending the use of SRLs implemented in October 2009. Constituents analyzed were aluminum, antimony, arsenic, barium, beryllium, boron, cadmium, chromium, hexavalent chromium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, lithium, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, selenium, silver, strontium, thallium, uranium, vanadium, and zinc. For this review, data from 167 field blanks collected from October 2009 through October 2018 by the GAMA-PBP for trace elements were compiled. Based on a consistent pattern of decreasing cobalt and manganese concentrations in field blanks from 2009 to 2013, the GAMA-PBP decided to reevaluate all trace-element SRLs, effectively setting an end date for previously defined SRLs. Beginning October 2013, SRLs would be determined from field-blank data collected through October 2018. The detection frequency and upper limit of potential contamination bias (BD-90/90) were determined from field blanks for each trace element. The BD-90/90, that is, the upper 90-percent confidence limit of the 90th percentile concentration of potential extrinsic contamination, was calculated by assuming the binomial probability distribution. These results were compared to each constituent’s detection limit to determine whether an SRL was necessary to minimize the potential for detections in the groundwater samples, attributed principally to contamination bias. Results of the evaluation were used to set SRLs for trace-element data collected by the GAMA-PBP between October 2013 and October 2018. Trace elements prescribed an SRL based on this review were hexavalent chromium, cobalt, copper, lead, and zinc. This review also resulted in the removal of SRLs from iron, manganese, molybdenum, and nickel. Although an SRL for hexavalent chromium could not be evaluated in the earlier reviews because the data were not collected regularly until 2015, one was established herein as 0.34 micrograms per liter (μg/L). The SRL for cobalt, as previously implemented, had been to reject all results; it was changed to 0.16 μg/L following a reduction in cobalt field-blank detection frequency resulting from mitigation steps, starting in 2014, aimed at reducing contamination bias introduced by high-capacity capsule filters used during sample collection. The SRL for copper did not change, and the SRL for lead changed very little based on this review. Lastly, the SRL for zinc was lowered from 6.2 μg/L to 3.9 μg/L.

Updating California Water Laws to Address Drought and Climate Change

California Planning & Conservation League Foundation | February 3rd, 2022