Shrinking lakes, air pollution, and human health: Evidence from California’s Salton Sea

Due to increased water withdrawals and ongoing climate change, many inland lakes around the world are shrinking and dry lake beds can be significant sources of particulate matter air pollution. Using a natural experiment provided by the shrinking Salton Sea in California, this paper shows that each one-foot drop in lake elevation is associated with a 0.28 μg/m3 (2.6%) increase in PM2.5 concentrations. IV model results then show that Salton Sea-induced changes in PM2.5 over 1998–2014 led to increases in respiratory mortality of 1.4/yr.–15.6/yr. in the counties surrounding the lake, generating $13.2–$147.3 million in annual health costs.