Abrupt transition to irreversible damage in the overdrafted Sacramento Valley aquifer system

Groundwater extraction can cause both reversible and irreversible ground deformation, with the latter leading to permanent land subsidence and loss of groundwater storage capacity. Satellite observations of land surface deformation reveal that large areas of the Sacramento Valley abruptly transitioned from reversible to irreversible compaction over the 2020–2022 California drought—a transition not anticipated from the groundwater monitoring network alone. Subsidence rates reaching several decimeters per year and not following groundwater levels indicate lasting damage to the aquifer system and underscore the need for more conservative groundwater management. By imaging this sharp transition at the regional scale, our analysis demonstrates the potential of space-based monitoring for early detection of groundwater overdraft and the resulting loss of aquifer storage capacity worldwide.