Warming and Elevated CO2 Have Opposing Influences on Transpiration. Which is more Important?

Current Forestry Reports (Springer) | March 14th, 2018

Plant transpiration is a key component of the terrestrial water cycle, and it is important to understand whether rates are likely to increase or decrease in the

Plant transpiration is a key component of the terrestrial water cycle, and it is important to understand whether rates are likely to increase or decrease in the future. Plant transpiration rates are affected by biophysical factors, such as air temperature, vapour pressure deficits and net radiation, and by plant factors, such as canopy leaf area and stomatal conductance. Under future climate change, global temperature increases, and associated increases in vapour pressure deficits, will act to increase canopy transpiration rates. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, however, is likely to lead to some reduction in stomatal conductance, which will reduce canopy transpiration rates. The objective of the present paper was to quantitatively compare the importance of these opposing driving forces. First, we reviewed the existing literature and list a large range of observations of the extent of decreasing stomatal conductance with increasing CO2 concentrations. We considered observations ranging from short-term laboratory-based experiments with plants grown under different CO2 concentrations to studies of plants exposed to the naturally increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Using these empirical observations of plant responses, and a set of well-tested biophysical relationships, we then estimated the net effect of the opposing influences of warming and CO2 concentration on transpiration rates. As specific cases studies, we explored expected changes in greater detail for six specific representative locations, covering the range from tropical to boreal forests. For most locations investigated, we calculated reductions in daily transpiration rates over the twenty-first century that became stronger under higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. It showed that the effect of CO2-induced reduction of stomatal conductance would have a stronger transpiration-depressing effect than the stimulatory effect of future warming. For currently cold regions, global warming would, however, lengthen the growing seasons so that annual sums of transpiration could increase in those regions despite reductions in daily transpiration rates over the summer months.

Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 8th, 2026

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwat

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwater–streamflow interactions above 2,500 m, new measurements in the Upper Colorado River headwaters indicate declining groundwater storage that is dated decades to millennia old. Here we use integrated hydrologic modelling spanning water years 2015–2021 to determine whether the loss of old-age groundwater buffers streamflow during low-snow years and whether that loss is exacerbated with warming. Results show that old-groundwater contributions to streams remain relatively steady through time, unlike the more variable contributions from young groundwater. Numerical experiments of increased surface air temperatures (+2.5 °C and +4 °C) increase rain–snow fractions and evapotranspiration and decrease runoff ratio by 2–3% per degree Celsius increase. As streamflow declines with warming, the age of groundwater supporting it gets older, in part owing to intermediate-aged (1–3 year) groundwater declining twice as fast. Simulations show that water table depths at higher elevations (>3,700 m) decline disproportionately and fail to recover even during wet years. These findings suggest altered groundwater–streamflow interactions with warming and snow loss, with implications for water resources.

Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 16th, 2022

Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger

Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions1,2, capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions—and their associated role as fire reducers—are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPDt), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours—when VPD exceeds VPDt—increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires.

Water Ages Explain Tradeoffs Between Long-Term Evapotranspiration and Ecosystem Drought Resilience

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 23rd, 2023

Water and climate: Recognize anthropogenic drought

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 27th, 2015

Water and Energy Sector Vulnerability to Climate Warming in the Sierra Nevada: Simulating the Regulated Rivers of California’s West Slope Sierra Nevada

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 7th, 2012

Climate warming is expected to affect the beneficial uses of water in the Sierra Nevada, impacting nearly every resident of California. This paper describes the developme

Climate warming is expected to affect the beneficial uses of water in the Sierra Nevada, impacting nearly every resident of California. This paper describes the development and results from an integrated water resource management model encompassing water operations and hydropower generation for the west slope Sierra Nevada spanning the Feather River basin in the north to the Kern River basin in the south at the weekly time step. This model application includes management of reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower plants, water supply demand locations, conveyances, and instream flow requirement. Model validation indicates that most major hydropower turbine flows were simulated well, with wetter years modeled more effectively than drier years. The results of this work indicated that hydropower generation will be reduced by approximately 8 percent with 6°C (10.8°F) warming, consistent with other studies, with a conservative parameterization of no change in precipitation. Reservoir operations adapt to capture earlier and greater runoff volumes that result from earlier and greater runoff due to climate warming. Seasonal compensation in operations is insufficient to overcome warming mediated losses.

Water and Energy Sector Vulnerability to Climate Warming in the Sierra Nevada: Water Year Classification in Non?Stationary Climates

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

This paper explores the sensitivity of water indexing methods to climate change scenarios to better understand how water management decisions and allocations will be affe

This paper explores the sensitivity of water indexing methods to climate change scenarios to better understand how water management decisions and allocations will be affected by climate change. Many water management decisions, such as environmental flow requirements and water supply allocations, are based on numerical “water year type” designations. Water year type designations vary by region and index, but most are defined by some measure of runoff in the current water year compared to average historical runoff, with numerical thresholds categorizing year types. Climate change is anticipated to alter the timing and volume of runoff, and change the relative frequency of water year types as presently defined. California’s Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley Indices are used as a case study to examine climatic changes. These indices provide a framework for allocating and transferring water among users. Streamflow estimates for 1951–2099 from the climate-forced Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model are used to estimate potential changes in runoff and water year type frequency, using six global circulation models for the A2 and B1 emissions scenarios. Results vary by emissions scenario and global circulation model, but indicate that critically dry water years in the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley are expected to be about 8 percent and 32 percent more likely by the latter half of the twenty-first century, respectively, if water year type definitions remain unchanged. If current water year type thresholds are maintained, more years will be classified as dry and less water will be allocated for environmental outflows, perhaps failing to provide adequate hydrologic variability to support species, habitats, and ecosystems. If thresholds are redefined to reflect the historical distribution of year types, the burden of climate change falls to consumptive users and water exporters. This case study illustrates how water policy and allocation frameworks were designed assuming climatic stationarity, and that adapting water policy (or maintaining the status quo) affects which users bear the burden of climate change.

Water Demand Projection Accuracy and Demand Management Trends in California Cities

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 21st, 2025

This study investigates the accuracy of long-term water demand projections and tracks the evolution of water demand management incentives across 61 California water suppl

This study investigates the accuracy of long-term water demand projections and tracks the evolution of water demand management incentives across 61 California water suppliers from 2000 to 2020. Through a systematic analysis of Urban Water Management Plans, we find that water suppliers consistently overestimated future demand by an average of 25% for 5-year projections and 74% for 20-year projections. This overestimation stems primarily from assumptions about per capita water demand rather than population growth estimates. While suppliers generally projected stable or increasing per capita demand, actual water demand per capita declined by 1.9% annually between 2000 and 2020, leading to a decoupling of water demand from population growth. Concurrently, we document a substantial increase in water demand management incentives, with non-voluntary regulations emerging as the dominant demand management approach by 2020, largely driven by state policies like the Model Water Efficient Landscape Ordinance and California Green Building Standards. Demand management efforts have evolved from primarily indoor and educational initiatives toward outdoor-focused non-voluntary regulations and rebates. This shift appears closely linked to the reduction in per capita demand that suppliers failed to fully capture in their water demand projections. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating dynamic conservation trends into demand projections and suggest that suppliers should develop more sophisticated forecasting methods that account for the continuing evolution of water efficiency incentives. This research provides valuable insights for water resource planners seeking to improve the accuracy of water demand projections in an era of increasing conservation and climate uncertainty.

Water Forward 2024 Plan Report - Austin's 100 Year Plan

City of Austin | December 6th, 2024

Water Forward 2024 is Austin’s 100-year integrated water resource plan. The purpose of Water Forward is to develop and implement diverse and environmentally conscious w

Water Forward 2024 is Austin’s 100-year integrated water resource plan. The purpose of Water Forward is to develop and implement diverse and environmentally conscious water management strategies to adapt to growth, drought, and climate change and ensure a sustainable, resilient, equitable, and affordable water future for our community for the next 100 years. Austin Water has developed this plan to address near- and long-term water needs through a collaborative process in alignment with guiding principles crafted to reflect the Austin community’s values. 

Water is a master variable: Solving for resilience in the modern era

Water Security, Elsevier | November 21st, 2019

Resilience is increasingly recognized as an imperative for any prospect of sustainable development, as it relates to our ability to sustain human well-being and progress

Resilience is increasingly recognized as an imperative for any prospect of sustainable development, as it relates to our ability to sustain human well-being and progress under the planetary and societal changes that we face now and into the future. Yet, we are ill-prepared to meet this challenge. We neither fully understand nor manage consistently for resilience of the human and natural systems that we must steward through extraordinary change. A unifying approach and common currency would help us to understand and manage for resilience under uncertain futures. Water is an essential, defining element in human and natural systems. Human civilization and water systems have co-evolved as a coupled system, with the majority of natural freshwater systems transformed to meet our demands. Shifting patters of water availability in space and time will define key pathways and tipping points for our resilience, and thus requirements for water system resilience must guide the trajectories and boundaries of human development. Here, we consider the thesis that water offers a key to unlocking the complex challenge of designing and managing for the resilience of coupled human-natural systems. We examine what constitutes a resilient system, what drives freshwater resilience, and how pathways to human resilience may be charted and navigated through the medium of water. Our theoretical treatise frames a portfolio of research that tests this thesis, including modeling and applications to water and water-dependent systems.