Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future

Frontiers in Conservation Science (Frontiers) | January 13th, 2021

We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. First, we review the evidence that future enviro

We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. First, we review the evidence that future environmental conditions will be far more dangerous than currently believed. The scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms—including humanity—is in fact so great that it is difficult to grasp for even well-informed experts. Second, we ask what political or economic system, or leadership, is prepared to handle the predicted disasters, or even capable of such action. Third, this dire situation places an extraordinary responsibility on scientists to speak out candidly and accurately when engaging with government, business, and the public. We especially draw attention to the lack of appreciation of the enormous challenges to creating a sustainable future. The added stresses to human health, wealth, and well-being will perversely diminish our political capacity to mitigate the erosion of ecosystem services on which society depends. The science underlying these issues is strong, but awareness is weak. Without fully appreciating and broadcasting the scale of the problems and the enormity of the solutions required, society will fail to achieve even modest sustainability goals.

Understanding End-of-Century Snowpack Changes Over California’s Sierra Nevada

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 29th, 2019

Understanding the Contributions of Paleo-Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes to Hydroclimate Extremes in the San Joaquin Valley of California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 13th, 2023

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 18th, 2023

Unintended consequences of using maps to communicate sea-level rise

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 26th, 2024

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | February 12th, 2015

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions never

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for bench- marking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium.

Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 25th, 2025

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE- FO data to show that the continents have undergon

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE- FO data to show that the continents have undergone unprecedented TWS loss since 2002. Areas experiencing drying increased by twice the size of California annually, creating “mega-drying” regions across the Northern Hemisphere. While most of the world’s dry/wet areas continue to get drier/wetter, dry areas are now drying faster than wet areas are wetting. Changes in TWS are driven by high-latitude water losses, intense Central American/European droughts, and groundwater depletion, which accounts for 68% of TWS loss over non-glaciated continental regions. “Continental drying” is having profound global impacts. Since 2002, 75% of the population lives in 101 countries that have been losing freshwater water. Furthermore, the continents now contribute more freshwater to sea level rise than the ice sheets, and drying regions now contribute more than land glaciers and ice caps. Urgent action is required to prepare for the major impacts of results presented

Urban Ecological Planning Guide for Santa Clara Valley

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | June 20th, 2019

Like most cities, the urbanized region of Santa Clara Valley is a challenging place for plants and animals to make a home. Largely covered with pavement, crisscrossed by

Like most cities, the urbanized region of Santa Clara Valley is a challenging place for plants and animals to make a home. Largely covered with pavement, crisscrossed by major freeways, and fragmented by a variety of land uses, the urban landscape creates barriers to the movement of wildlife and hostile environments for plants. While a small set of species tolerant of cities (such as pigeons and raccoons) can tolerate these difficult conditions, our cities have the potential to support much greater biodiversity. Urban greening projects are already occurring piecemeal across urban landscapes. Harnessing this momentum can help these efforts build greater benefits for biodiversity and for people.  Urban greening projects may take many forms, such as rain gardens beside roadways; bike trails with vegetated medians; planted and expanded riparian vegetation along stream corridors; and landscaping in corporate campuses, municipal parks and private gardens. While often driven by a narrow set of goals such as stormwater capture, public safety, shade, or beautification, these green spaces can be designed and coordinated to support enhanced biodiversity as well. Rain gardens can support native wetland plants, bike trail medians can support ribbons of wildflowers for native insects, street trees can shade pedestrians and provide acorns for birds and squirrels, and stream revegetation or daylighting projects can provide a reflective place for people and strengthen corridors for regional species movement. While each of these types of projects provides benefits, strategically designing these features to reflect ecologically-minded planning, and where possible, coordinating across the landscape, can provide value for humans and nature alike.  This document provides some of the scientific foundation needed to guide planning for urban biodiversity in the Santa Clara Valley region, grounded in an understanding of landscape history, urban ecology and local setting. It can be used to envision the ecological potential for individual urban greening projects, and to guide their siting, design and implementation. It also can be used to guide coordination of projects across the landscape, with the cooperation of a group of stakeholders (such as multiple agencies, cities and counties). Users of this report may include a wide range of entities, such as local nonprofits, public agencies, city planners, and applicants to the Open Space Authority’s Urban Open Space Grant Program.  This document is not intended to inform all aspects of site-specific planning. Much guidance on these topics is already available, and we reference some of those resources here. Rather, it is intended as a companion to existing materials, to inform a broader vision of how such site-scale projects can fit into the larger fabric of the Santa Clara Valley landscape. This document also recommends appropriate habitats and lists of their associated plants for the region, as well as general guidance on practical considerations related to project implementation. 

Urban Growth in California: Projecting Growth (2000–2050) Under Six Alternative Policy Scenarios and Assessing Impacts to Future Dispersal Corridors, Fire Threats, and Climate-Sensitive Agriculture

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

This paper documents the development of land use models that represent different urban growth policy scenarios for California, a contribution to the Public Interest Energ

This paper documents the development of land use models that represent different urban growth policy scenarios for California, a contribution to the Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Climate Vulnerability and Assessment Project of 2010–2011. The research team produced six UPlan model runs that portray the following policies as footprint scenarios to 2050: Business as Usual, Smart Growth, Fire Adaptation, Infill, Conservation of Projected Connectivity for Plant Movement under Climate Change, and Conservation of Vulnerable Agricultural Lands. This paper compares the outputs from these six scenarios on outputs from three other PIER vulnerability studies: biodiversity, fire return interval, and agricultural sensitivity. While not directly targeting any conservation or agricultural objective, the Infill scenario preserved more open space for other use than any of the other scenarios. The results suggest that combining Infill objectives with other open space goals will produce better conservation goals for those objectives than merely directing growth away from landscape elements of conservation interest.

Urban water and electricity demand data for understanding climate change impacts on the water-energy nexus

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 23rd, 2024