Evaluating GFS and ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Integrated Water Vapor Transport along the U.S. West Coast

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | October 28th, 2022

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow regions in the atmosphere of enhanced integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and can produce extreme precipitation and high s

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow regions in the atmosphere of enhanced integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and can produce extreme precipitation and high societal impacts. Reliable and skillful forecasts of landfalling ARs in the western United States are critical to hazard preparation and aid in decision support activities, such as Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO). The purpose of this study is to compare the cool-season water year skill of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) forecasts of IVT along the U.S. West Coast for 2017–20. The skill is analyzed using probability-over-threshold forecasts of IVT magnitudes ≥ 250 kg m−1 s−1 (P250) using contingency table skill metrics in coastal Northern California and along the west coast of North America. Analysis of P250 with lead time (dProg/dt) found that the EPS provided ∼1 day of additional lead time for situational awareness over the GEFS at lead times of 6–10 days. Forecast skill analysis highlights that the EPS leads over the GEFS with success ratios 0.10–0.15 higher at lead times > 6 days for P250 thresholds of ≥25% and ≥50%, while event-based skill analysis using the probability of detection (POD) found that both models were largely similar with minor latitudinal variations favoring higher POD for each model in different locations along the coast. The relative skill of the EPS over the GEFS is largely attributed to overforecasting by the GEFS at longer lead times and an increase in the false alarm ratio.

Evaluation of Non-hydrostatic Simulations of Northeast Pacific Atmospheric Rivers and Comparison to In-situ Observations

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | August 31st, 2015

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of concentrated atmospheric water vapor transport that provide an important atmospheric linkage between the subtropics and the m

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of concentrated atmospheric water vapor transport that provide an important atmospheric linkage between the subtropics and the midlatitudes, facilitating over 90% of meridional water vapor flux and often resulting in extreme precipitation events in regions of enhanced coastal orography. In this investigation, the authors conduct continuous (3 month), large-domain (3600 km × 3200 km), high-resolution (4 km), nonhydrostatic simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and compare the observations to previously reported dropsonde observations from the California Land-Falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) and the Pacific Land-Falling Jets Experiment (PACJET) in order to address an existing gap in knowledge regarding the ability of atmospheric models to simulate the finescale vertical and horizontal structure of atmospheric rivers. The WRF simulations reproduce key structural and thermodynamic characteristics of atmospheric rivers—including well-defined corridors of strong water vapor transport, moist-neutral stability in the lower troposphere, and strong low-level jet/water vapor transport maxima near ~1 km MSL. While WRF does generally capture the extreme values of instantaneous vertically integrated water transport—a defining feature of real-world atmospheric rivers—constituent variables exhibit biases relative to observations, including −11.2% for integrated vapor transport, +5.9% for integrated water vapor, and −17.7% for 1 km MSL wind speed. Findings suggest that high-resolution nonhydrostatic atmospheric simulations are an appropriate tool for investigating atmospheric rivers in contexts where finescale spatial structure and realistic water vapor transport maxima are important.

Evaluation of the Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Floods Associated with Atmospheric Rivers in Coastal Western U.S. Watersheds

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | May 27th, 2021

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month) is a critical lead time for proactive mitigation of flood disasters. The NOAA Climate Testbed Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a research-to-operations project with almost immediate availability of forecasts. It has produced a reforecast database that facilitates evaluation of flood forecasts at these subseasonal lead times. Here, we examine the SubX-driven forecast skill of AR-related flooding out to 4-week lead using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), with particular attention to the role of antecedent soil moisture (ASM), which modulates the relationship between meteorological and hydrological forecast skill. We study three watersheds along a transect of the U.S. West Coast: the Chehalis River basin in Washington, the Russian River basin in Northern California, and the Santa Margarita River basin in Southern California. We find that the SubX-driven flood forecast skill drops quickly after week 1, during which there is relatively high deterministic forecast skill. We find some probabilistic forecast skill relative to climatology as well as ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) in week 2, but minimal skill in weeks 3–4, especially for annual maximum floods, notwithstanding some probabilistic skill for smaller floods in week 3. Using ESP and reverse-ESP experiments to consider the relative influence of ASM and SubX reforecast skill, we find that ASM dominates probabilistic forecast skill only for small flood events at week 1, while SubX reforecast skill dominates for large flood events at all lead times.

Examining the Contribution of the Observed Global Warming Trend to the California Droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | September 30th, 2014

In this study, we examine the November–February California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14. During 2013/14, California had its warmest and third driest rainy se

In this study, we examine the November–February California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14. During 2013/14, California had its warmest and third driest rainy season on record (1895–2014), while the 2012/13 season registered as the 45th warmest and 38th driest (Vose et al. 2014). The 2013 January–December calendar year was the driest on record (Water CA 2014). These consecutive below-normal seasons conspired with warm temperatures to reduce California’s snowpack to the second lowest level since 1960, when recording began, with snowpack at 24% of normal (Water CA 2014). Between January 2013 and January 2014, satellite observations documented dramatic snowpack-related land cover change (NASA Earth Observatory 2014): in 2014, the Cascade, Sierra Nevada, and Coastal ranges were almost completely devoid of snow. In February and March of 2014, air temperatures were extremely warm (NOAA NCDC 2014; HPRC 2014), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) observations indicated extreme or moderate hydrologic drought (USGS 2014) and high levels of vegetation stress (VegDRI 2014). The state declared a drought emergency (NIDIS 2014). While it is too soon to assess the full impact of the 2012/13 and 2013/14 California droughts, they seem likely to substantially impact the state’s ability to generate hydrologic power, support agriculture, reduce the risk of forest and bush fires, and protect fragile ecosystems (Huffington Post 2014). *Chapter 4, Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9)

Expansion and Intensification of the North American Monsoon During the Pliocene

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 10th, 2022

Exploring the Origins of Snow Drought in the Northern Sierra Nevada, California

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | February 22nd, 2018

The concept of snow drought is gaining widespread interest as the climate of snow-dominated mountain watersheds continues to change. Warm snow drought is defined

The concept of snow drought is gaining widespread interest as the climate of snow-dominated mountain watersheds continues to change. Warm snow drought is defined as above- or near-average accumulated pre- cipitation coinciding with below-average snow water equivalent at a point in time. Dry snow drought is defined as below-average accumulated precipitation and snow water equivalent at a point in time. This study contends that such point-in-time definitions might miss important components of how snow droughts originate, persist, and terminate. Using these simple definitions and a variety of observations at monthly, daily, and hourly time scales, the authors explore the hydrometeorological origins of potential snow droughts in the northern Sierra Nevada from water years 1951 to 2017. This study finds that snow droughts can result from extreme early season precipitation, frequent rain- on-snow events, and low precipitation years. Late-season snow droughts can follow persistent warm and dry periods with effects that depend upon elevation. Many snow droughts were characterized by lower snow fractions and midwinter peak runoff events. These findings can guide improved evaluations of historical and potential future snow droughts, particularly with regards to how impacts on water resources and mountain ecosystems may vary depending on how snow droughts originate and evolve in time.

Extreme and persistent drought in California and Patagonia during medieval time

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 16th, 1994

STUDIES from sites around the world1–5 have provided evidence for anomalous climate conditions persisting for several hundred years before about AD 1300. Early workers

STUDIES from sites around the world1–5 have provided evidence for anomalous climate conditions persisting for several hundred years before about AD 1300. Early workers emphasized the temperature increase that marked this period in the British Isles, coining the terms 'Mediaeval Warm Epoch' and 'Little Climatic Optimum', but many sites seem to have experienced equally important hydrological changes. Here I present a study of relict tree stumps rooted in present-day lakes, marshes and streams, which suggests that California's Sierra Nevada experienced extremely severe drought conditions for more than two centuries before ad ∼ 1112 and for more than 140 years before ad ∼ 1350. During these periods, runoff from the Sierra was significantly lower than during any of the persistent droughts that have occurred in the region over the past 140 years. I also present similar evidence from Patagonia of drought conditions coinciding with at least the first of these dry periods in California. I suggest that the droughts may have been caused by reorientation of the mid-latitude storm tracks, owing to a general contraction of the circumpolar vortices and/or a change in the position of the vortex waves. If this reorientation was caused by mediaeval warming, future natural or anthropogenically induced warming may cause a recurrence of the extreme drought conditions.

Extreme California Rains During Winter 2015/16: A Change in El Niño Teleconnection?

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | January 25th, 2018

This is a story of two extreme events—one that was expected but failed to occur and the other that actually did occur but was not anticipated. The one that failed was

This is a story of two extreme events—one that was expected but failed to occur and the other that actually did occur but was not anticipated. The one that failed was extreme wetness over Southern California (SCAL) during winter 2015/16, which was predicted by seasonal forecasts. The extreme event that did occur was dryness whose considerable magnitude exacerbated one of the worst droughts on record over SCAL. *Chapter 10,  Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective, Herring, S. C., N. Christidis, A. Hoell, J. P. Kossin, C. J. Schreck III, and P. A. Stott, Eds., 2018: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99 (1), S1–S157.

Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | September 21st, 2016

The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of C

The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive arti cial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. Here we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble modeling approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to Southern California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift towards more rainfall, reduced cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in the frequency and the intensity of both drier conditions and ooding events. The 50 year extreme daily maximum precipitation and runoff events are 1.5–6 times more likely to occur depending on the water supply basin. Simultaneously, a clear de cit in total annual runoff over mountainous snow generating regions like the Sierra Nevada is projected. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and signicantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from control reservoirs, which may potentially decrease water availability outside of the wet season. Lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with projected climate changes and population increases may leave the area in extended periods of shortages.

Extreme Precipitation-Temperature Scaling in California: The Role of Atmospheric Rivers

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 25th, 2023