Assumptions and Estimates for California Water Plan Update 2018

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | April 13th, 2017

The California Water Plan (Water Plan) is the State government’s strategic plan for sustainably managing and developing water resources statewide for current and future

The California Water Plan (Water Plan) is the State government’s strategic plan for sustainably managing and developing water resources statewide for current and future generations. The Water Plan development process provides a planning framework for elected officials, agencies, tribes, water and resource managers, businesses, academia, stakeholders, and the public to collaborate on findings and recommendations and make informed decisions regarding California’s water future. The goal for each update of the Water Plan is to receive broad input and support from Californians, meet California Water Code (Water Code) requirements, guide State investments, and advance integrated water management and regional sustainability.  This draft report and the related data posted online comprise the Draft Assumptions and Estimates Report (Draft A&E Report) for California Water Plan Update 2018 (Update 2018). The Draft A&E Report presents key assumptions and estimates, data and data sources, and companion plans that will be considered for the preparation of Update 2018. The report increases the transparency of the Water Plan process by disclosing the data, tools, methods, and references used to prepare Update 2018. This report meets Water Code requirements, which stipulate that the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) must publish the Water Plan’s assumptions and estimates one year prior to the plan’s publication, as well as provide an opportunity for public review and comment. Water code requirements for the Draft A&E Report are presented below.  The Draft A&E Report also describes the approach DWR is taking to improve the analytical tools and data being used to develop Update 2018. DWR will continue to update Draft A&E Report content online during the remainder of the Update 2018 development process. A draft glossary for Update 2018 is included as part of this report, and the final version of that glossary will be published as a component of Update 2018. The final data and data sources will be included in the Update 2018 reference and technical information. 

Assumptions and Estimates for California Water Plan Update 2023 (Draft)

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 14th, 2022

The draft Assumptions and Estimates for California Water Plan Update 2023 (draft A&E Report) describes key assumptions and estimates, data and data sources; improvements

The draft Assumptions and Estimates for California Water Plan Update 2023 (draft A&E Report) describes key assumptions and estimates, data and data sources; improvements to analytical tools, methods, and approaches; and the supporting documents and companion State plans being used to prepare California Water Plan Update 2023 (Update 2023), State government’s strategic plan for managing and developing water resources for sustainability and resilience. The draft A&E Report cites the statutory requirements for the California Water Plan (Water Plan), key legislative and policy drivers, assumptions, and estimates related to water data portfolios, future scenarios, water accounting, watershed resilience planning, and equity in water resource management. Also discussed are resource management strategies, the alignment of integrated watershed programs and plans, and integration and alignment of State plans.

Asymmetric emergence of low-to-no snow in the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 14th, 2022

Societies and ecosystems within and downstream of mountains rely on seasonal snowmelt to satisfy their water demands. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced mountain sn

Societies and ecosystems within and downstream of mountains rely on seasonal snowmelt to satisfy their water demands. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced mountain snowpacks worldwide, altering snowmelt magnitude and timing. Here the global warming level leading to widespread and persistent mountain snowpack decline, termed low-to-no snow, is estimated for the world’s most latitudinally contiguous mountain range, the American Cordillera. We show that a combination of dynamical, thermodynamical and hypsometric factors results in an asymmetric emergence of low-to-no-snow conditions within the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera. Low-to-no-snow emergence occurs approximately 20 years earlier in the southern hemisphere, at a third of the local warming level, and coincides with runoff efficiency declines (8% average) in both dry and wet years. The prevention of a low-to-no-snow future in either hemisphere requires the level of global warming to be held to, at most, +2.5 °C.

At Risk: Public Supply Well Vulnerability Under California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act

Pacific Institute | June 1st, 2021

At the Great Salt Lake, record salinity and low water imperils millions of birds

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | September 9th, 2022

Utah’s Great Salt Lake is smaller and saltier than at any time in recorded history. In July, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported that the world’s third-largest

Utah’s Great Salt Lake is smaller and saltier than at any time in recorded history. In July, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported that the world’s third-largest saline lake had dropped to the lowest level ever documented. And last week researchers measured the highest salt concentrations ever seen in the lake’s southern arm, a key bird habitat. Salinity has climbed to 18%, exceeding a threshold at which essential microorganisms begin to die. The trends, driven by drought and water diversion, have scientists warning that a critical feeding ground for millions of migrating birds is at risk of collapse. “We’re into uncharted waters,” says biochemist Bonnie Baxter of Westminster College, who has been documenting the lake’s alarming changes. “One week the birds are gone from a spot we usually see them. The next week we see dead flies along the shore. And each week we have to walk further to reach the water.” After years of inaction, the prospect of a dying lake, plus the risk of harmful dust blowing from the dry lakebed, is galvanizing policymakers to find ways to restore water to the shrinking lake.

Atlantic-Pacific influence on western U.S. hydroclimate and water resources

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 11th, 2023

Atmospheric circulation during Holocene lake stands in the Mojave Desert: evidence of regional climate change

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 7th, 1989

It is commonly thought that the climate conditions that supported lakes over a period of years in the Mojave Desert in southern California, only existed before 8,

It is commonly thought that the climate conditions that supported lakes over a period of years in the Mojave Desert in southern California, only existed before 8,000 yr BP and that the environment has been arid since. Here we look at a drill core in the Silver Lake playa at the terminus of the Mojave River and find Holocene lake deposits which indicate that shallow lakes existed for at least a few decades. These deposits were radiocarbon dated at 3620 ±70 and 390 ± 90 yr BP, corresponding to the early Neo-glacial and the 'little ice age' respectively. To identify the conditions necessary to produce these Holocene lake events we have examined the modern climate and hydrological patterns that produce ephemeral lakes in this usually arid watershed. Available data indicate that there is a link between anomalous winter atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and Mojave River floods that produced ephemeral lakes in the Silver Lake playa and that the Mojave River filters out small to medium floods and allows only the extreme floods to reach the terminal playa and leave a record of the anomalous conditions. We suggest that the late Holocene lakes may have resulted from persistent similar atmospheric circulation patterns and winter floods.

Atmospheric river activity during the late Holocene exceeds modern range of variability in California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 25th, 2024

Atmospheric rivers are associated with some of the largest flood-producing precipitation events in western North America, particularly California. Insight into past extre

Atmospheric rivers are associated with some of the largest flood-producing precipitation events in western North America, particularly California. Insight into past extreme precipitation can be reconstructed from sedimentary archives on millennial timescales. Here we document atmospheric river activity near Leonard Lake, California, over 3,200 years, using a key metric of atmospheric river intensity, that is silicon/aluminum enriched layers that are highly correlated with modern records of integrated vapor transport. The late twentieth century had the highest median integrated vapor transport since the onset of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, with integrated vapor transport increasing during the Little Ice Age. The reconstruction suggests California has experienced pluvial episodes that exceeded any in the meteorologic instrumental era, with the largest episodes occurring two and three millennia ago. These results provide critical data to help avoid underestimation of potential risks and aid future planning scenarios.

Atmospheric River Precipitation Enhanced by Climate Change: A Case Study of the Storm That Contributed to California's Oroville Dam Crisis

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 9th, 2022

California's reliance on precipitation from atmospheric rivers is expected to increase as our climate warms. Understanding how climate change is impacting this increasing

California's reliance on precipitation from atmospheric rivers is expected to increase as our climate warms. Understanding how climate change is impacting this increasingly dominant mode of precipitation is vitally important for water-resource management throughout the state, across the North American West Coast, and for other similarly impacted regions. Our case study of an impactful atmospheric river from early February 2017 that contributed to the Oroville Dam crisis in Northern California, modeled under preindustrial, present-day, mid-, and late-21st century unabatedly warming environments, demonstrates an overwhelming increase in precipitation throughout the event. This particular storm was comprised of two distinct pulses, and while both pulses of the storm are enhanced in the warmer future epochs, the estimated precipitation increases are disproportionately higher for the second pulse due to larger increases in temperature and moisture. Our results therefore suggest that not all atmospheric rivers are similarly affected by climate change and point to specific directions for relevant future research.

Atmospheric Rivers as Drought Busters on the U.S. West Coast

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | April 25th, 2013

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have, in recent years, been recognized as the cause of the large majority of major floods in rivers all along the U.S. West Coast and as the sour

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have, in recent years, been recognized as the cause of the large majority of major floods in rivers all along the U.S. West Coast and as the source of 30%–50% of all precipitation in the same region. The present study surveys the frequency with which ARs have played a critical role as a common cause of the end of droughts on the West Coast. This question was based on the observation that, in most cases, droughts end abruptly as a result of the arrival of an especially wet month or, more exactly, a few very large storms. This observation is documented using both Palmer Drought Severity Index and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index measures of drought occurrence for climate divisions across the conterminous United States from 1895 to 2010. When the individual storm sequences that contributed most to the wet months that broke historical West Coast droughts from 1950 to 2010 were evaluated, 33%–74% of droughts were broken by the arrival of landfalling AR storms. In the Pacific Northwest, 60%–74%of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by the arrival of AR storms. In California, about 33%–40% of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by landfalling AR storms, with more localized low pressure systems responsible for many of the remaining drought breaks.