Historical and future relations between large storms and droughts in California

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 14th, 2016

California precipitation varies more dramatically from year to year than elsewhere in the conterminous United States. This paper analyzes the extent to which contribution

California precipitation varies more dramatically from year to year than elsewhere in the conterminous United States. This paper analyzes the extent to which contributions of the wettest days to overall precipitation dictate the state’s precipitation seasonality and frequent multiyear periods of drought (as precipitation deficit) and plenty is analyzed, historically and in projections of future climates. The wettest 5% of wet days in California contribute about a third of precipitation but about two-thirds of the variance of water-year precipitation. Year-to-year fluctuations in precipitation strongly reflect year-to-year fluctuations of contributions from the largest storms, with the large-storm contributions explaining about twice as much precipitation fluctuation as do contributions from all remaining storms combined. This extreme dominance of large storms is largely unique to California within the United States. In climate-change projections, eight of ten climate models considered here yield increases in precipitation from the largest storms, and when the increases are large, total precipitation follows suit. All of the models project declines in contributions from the smaller storms and models projecting total-precipitation declines reflect this decline. Projected changes in variance of water-year precipitation reflect changes in variance of large-storm contributions. The disproportionately large overall contributions from California’s largest storms, and their outsized year-to-year variability, ensure that the state’s largest storms dictate the state’s regimes of wet and dry spells, historically and in climate-change projections.

Holocene paleoclimate records from a large California estuarine system and its watershed region: linking watershed climate and bay conditions

Quaternary Science Reviews (Elsevier) | July 10th, 2006

The San Francisco Bay-Delta system includes a watershed that covers a large area of California and provides water to two-thirds of the State's population. Climate

The San Francisco Bay-Delta system includes a watershed that covers a large area of California and provides water to two-thirds of the State's population. Climate over the estuary and its watershed in the dry summer months is controlled by the subtropical high which dominates and deflects storms from California. The subtropical high weakens and migrates south as the Aleutian Low strengthens, bringing wet winter storms to the region. Paleoclimatic records from the Bay and its greater watershed, spanning the Holocene, are reviewed here in order to better understand natural variations of precipitation and runoff and the linkages between those variations and the salinity and ecosystems of the estuary. To better understand regional-scale climate patterns, paleoclimate records from coastal California and the Great Basin are also considered. Large fluctuations in climate have occurred during the period of interest, and there is generally good agreement between the paleoclimate records from different regions. Early Holocene climate throughout California was marked by rising temperatures and reduced moisture as seen in fire records from the watershed. This warmth and aridity peaked about 5000–7000 years ago and was followed by a cooling trend, with variable moisture conditions. The Estuary formed relatively rapidly in response to a high rate of sea level rise that dominated the Holocene until about 6000 years ago, and the subsequent reduced rate of inundation allowed vast tidal marshes to form along the edges of the estuary, which have since been recording changes in environmental conditions. The impacts of changing regional climate patterns are experienced in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system, as altered fresh water flows result in altered estuary salinity. For example, approximately 3800 cal yr B.P., records from throughout the state indicate a cool, moist period, and Bay salinity was reduced; this period was followed by a general drying trend throughout California over the last two millennia, punctuated by decades to centuries-long droughts and brief, extremely wet events. In particular, during the period ca. 1000–800 cal yr B.P. (A.D. 950–1150) conditions seem to have been unusually dry in many parts of the watershed, reducing the fresh water flows to the estuary, and shifting tidal marsh plant assemblages toward less diverse, but more salt-tolerant plants. In contrast, the Little Ice Age (ca. 550–200 cal yr B.P.) brought unusually cool and wet conditions to much of the watershed, and lowered salinity in the Bay. Many reconstructions suggest that notably stable conditions have prevailed over the instrumental period, i.e., after ca. A.D. 1850, even including the severe, short-term anomalies experienced during this period. Interdecadal variability is common in many of the records, with timescales of ca. 55, 70, 90, 100, 150, and 200 years.

Hot Drought of Summer 2023 in Southwestern North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 17th, 2025

Hot droughts, or compound drought and heatwaves, have a significant impact on arid regions in southwestern North America (SWNA). In the summer of 2023, SWNA experienced u

Hot droughts, or compound drought and heatwaves, have a significant impact on arid regions in southwestern North America (SWNA). In the summer of 2023, SWNA experienced unusually intense hot droughts during both the daytime and nighttime, with their severity amplified three to five times above values during the prior four decades. Over this period, a significant increase was found in the coupling between nighttime and daytime conditions at local scales and across different regions of the SWNA. The hot drought was due to a suppressed North American monsoon (NAM) in response to synoptic-scale subsidence and moisture divergence. Nevertheless, we identified a remote connection between soil moisture in upwind areas and hot drought conditions in downwind regions across the US-Mexico border. Our findings indicate that hot droughts need to be analyzed over complete diurnal cycles and over regions that are connected through atmospheric pathways to improve their prediction, response, and mitigation.

Hot extremes have become drier in the United States Southwest

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 17th, 2021

The impacts of summer heat extremes are mediated by humidity. Increases in temperatures due to human-caused climate change are generally expected to increase specific hum

The impacts of summer heat extremes are mediated by humidity. Increases in temperatures due to human-caused climate change are generally expected to increase specific humidity; however, it remains unclear how humidity extremes may change, especially in climatologically dry (low-humidity) regions. Here we show that specific humidity on dry days during summer (defined here as July–September) has decreased over the past seven decades in the United States Southwest, and that the greatest decreases co-occur with the hottest temperatures. Hot, dry summers have anomalously low evapotranspiration that is linked to low summer soil moisture. The recent decrease in summer soil moisture is explained by declines in June soil moisture, whereas the interannual variability is controlled by summer precipitation. Future projections of hot, dry days in the Southwest are uncertain due to the large spread in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) trends in soil moisture and precipitation through 2100.

How to address agriculture’s water woes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 19th, 2024

How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | December 30th, 2014

For the past three years (2012–2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two

For the past three years (2012–2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the context of the last millennium. We demonstrate that while 3 year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years. Tree ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability. The current California drought is exceptionally severe in the context of at least the last millennium and is driven by reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures.

Human contributions to evapotranspiration mitigate swings in dry-to-wet year transitions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 9th, 2026

California’s food and economic security depends on water availability, particularly under increasingly extreme climate scenarios. A key component of the water balance i

California’s food and economic security depends on water availability, particularly under increasingly extreme climate scenarios. A key component of the water balance is evapotranspiration, the combination of soil and surface evaporation and plant transpiration. Evapotranspiration is influenced by natural drivers (e.g., climate, vegetation cover) and human intervention (e.g., irrigation, land management). Here, we analyze the transition between one of California’s driest years (2022) to an exceptionally wet year (2023) to assess evapotranspiration responses to climate extremes. Despite increased precipitation, total statewide evapotranspiration changed less than 10%. In 2022, human contributions accounted for 30% of statewide evapotranspiration and 80% in managed lands. In 2023, natural evapotranspiration increased, and human contributions fell by 30%, yet still comprised nearly 50% of evapotranspiration in managed areas. Our findings underscore the enduring role of human activity on California’s hydrology, even during wet years, and demonstrate a framework to separate natural and anthropogenic controls on evapotranspiration.

Human emissions drive recent trends in North Pacific climate variations

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 14th, 2025

Click here for a plain language discussion of the article by co-authors Pedro N. DiNezio and Timothy M. Shanahan

Click here for a plain language discussion of the article by co-authors Pedro N. DiNezio and Timothy M. Shanahan

Human Impacts Dominate Global Loss of Lake Ecosystem Resilience

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 5th, 2024

Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 6th, 2020

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we us

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, FM1(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, FM2(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California, the Sahel and India. FM2(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.