Hydroclimate Variability in Snow-fed River Systems

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | June 25th, 2019

Snow-fed river system communities are highly sensitive to climate change because the majority of their water supply is derived from snow. A warmer climate shift

Snow-fed river system communities are highly sensitive to climate change because the majority of their water supply is derived from snow. A warmer climate shifts precipitation phase from snow to rain, altering snowpack dynamics, shifting peak streamflow timing, reducing groundwater recharge, and increasing winter and spring flooding. Warmer spring and summer temperatures further compound these “snow droughts” by increasing evapotranspiration rates and irrigation water demand. This presents critical challenges in managing seasonal water supply and demand engineered for stationary climate patterns.

Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 9th, 2025

Hydroclimatic Extremes as Challenges for the Water Management Community: Lessons from Oroville Dam and Hurricane Harvey

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 31st, 2018

Record-breaking extreme storms were a hallmark of 2017 in the United States. An extremely wet winter on the West Coast and brutally damaging hurricane season in

Record-breaking extreme storms were a hallmark of 2017 in the United States. An extremely wet winter on the West Coast and brutally damaging hurricane season in the U.S. Southeast and the Caribbean challenged communities and power-, water- and flood-management systems in ways that raised climate change concerns. Among the most severe were two periods of heavy precipitation and high runoff that exposed dangerous weaknesses in water management infrastructure and land use practices in California and Texas. In California, a record-breaking string of atmospheric river landfalls and remarkably wet winter conditions came close to causing a catastrophic failure of the emergency spillway at Oroville Dam (France et al. 2018; Abbott 2018; White et al. 2019) and less publicized concerns elsewhere (Holland et al. 2018; CNRFC 2017). In Texas, near record-doubling rainfall accumulations from Hurricane Harvey led to massive flooding (Blake and Zelinsky 2018) and dam safety challenges in Houston (Wax-Thibodeaux et al. 2017). We use these events as examples to ground the concept that attribution studies, with careful management-focused framing, can help water management better navigate such unprecedented extremes. *Chapter from the American Meteorological Society's Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective.

Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 9th, 2022

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, resulting in an increase in floods and droughts. These changes increase the complexity of water resource management t

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, resulting in an increase in floods and droughts. These changes increase the complexity of water resource management that must balance between releasing water to reduce flood risk and storing water for long periods without precipitation. Using updated climate model projections, we show that the amount of precipitation during events will become larger combined with longer dry periods where the daily evaporative demand exceeds precipitation for much of the Earth's surface. Additionally, for the late 21st century, a large portion of the years will be hydrologically intense in major river basins, resulting in conditions that deviate from those for which infrastructure and management policies were developed.

Hydrometeorological characteristics of rain-on-snow events associated with atmospheric rivers

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 29th, 2016

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic corridors of enhanced water vapor transport that play an important role in regional weather/hydrology. Rain-on-s

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic corridors of enhanced water vapor transport that play an important role in regional weather/hydrology. Rain-on-snow (ROS) events during ARs present enhanced flood risks due to the combined effects of rainfall and snowmelt. Focusing onCalifornia’s Sierra Nevada, the study identifies ROS occurrences and their connection with ARs during the 1998–2014 winters. AR conditions, which occur during 17% of all precipitation events, are associated with 50% of ROS events (25 of 50). Composite analysis shows that compared to ARs without ROS, ARs with ROS areon average warmer by ~2 K, with snow water equivalent loss of ~0.7 cm/d (providing 20% of the combined water available for runoff) and ~50% larger streamflow/precipitation ratios. Atmospheric Infrared Sounderretrievals reveal distinct offshore characteristics of the two types of ARs. The results highlight the potential value of observing these events for snow, rain, and flood prediction.

Identifying American climate change free riders and motivating sustainable behavior

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 19th, 2024

Identifying and Overcoming Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation in San Francisco Bay: Results from Case Studies

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

The research goals of this project were threefold: (1) to systematically identify the adaptation barriers encountered by local government entities in San Francisco Bay; (

The research goals of this project were threefold: (1) to systematically identify the adaptation barriers encountered by local government entities in San Francisco Bay; (2) to test empirically the robustness and usefulness of a diagnostic framework (previously developed by the authors) so as to modify or refine its components; and (3) to draw larger lessons about the adaptation process and the importance of adaptation barriers—even in highly developed nations—for the scientific community in terms of future research priorities and for policy-makers. To fulfill these goals, an in-depth study of five California case studies in the San Francisco Bay region (Hayward, San Francisco, Santa Clara and Marin Counties, and the regional adaptation process) was undertaken. Relevant data were collected through key informant interviews, public documents, observation of and/or participation in public meetings, and a statewide survey. The study found growing, but still very limited activities in the case studies. Institutional and attitudinal barriers dominate, but economic barriers are also important, even in wealthy locales. Leadership emerged as a critical factor in moving them forward on adaptation. Science mattered some, but policy and planning opportunities were more significant in motivating or launching the adaptation process. The study also found that communities have assets, aids, and advantages that can help them avoid barriers and that there is significant opportunity to affect and overcome the barriers that are being encountered in the “here and now.” However, local communities need outside intervention to address “legacy” and “remote” barriers. With still very little visible adaptation activity “on the ground,” the study concluded that a big portion of what communities are doing to date is working on overcoming the barriers to adaptation instead.

Identifying Major Hydrologic Change Drivers in a Highly Managed Transboundary Endorheic Basin: Integrating Hydro-ecological Models and Time-Series Data Mining Techniques

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 23rd, 2022

The fragile balance of endorheic lakes in highly managed semi-arid basins with transboundary water issues has been altered by the intertwined effects of global warming an

The fragile balance of endorheic lakes in highly managed semi-arid basins with transboundary water issues has been altered by the intertwined effects of global warming and long-term water mismanagement to support agricultural and industrial demand. The alarming rate of global endorheic lakes’ depletion in recent decades necessitates formulating mitigation strategies for ecosystem restoration. However, detecting and quantifying the relative contribution of causal factors (climate variability and anthropogenic stressors) is challenging. This study developed a diagnostic multivariate framework to identify major hydrologic drivers of lake depletion in a highly managed endorheic basin with a complex water distribution system. The framework integrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulations with time-series decomposition and clustering methods to identify the major drivers of change. This diagnostic framework was applied to the Salton Sea Transboundary Basin (SSTB), the host of the world's most impaired inland lake. The results showed signs of depletion across the SSTB since late 1998 with no significant changes in climate conditions. The time-series data mining of the SSTB water balance components indicated that decreases in lake tributary inflows (-16.4 Mm3 yr-2) in response to decline in Colorado River inflows, associated with state water transfer agreements, are causing the Salton Sea to shrink, not changes in the irrigation operation as commonly believed. The developed multivariate detection and attribution framework is useful for identifying major drivers of change in coupled natural-human systems.

Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 System in the Oceans

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 16th, 2004

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations over the past two centuries have led to greater CO2 uptake by the oceans. This acidification process has changed

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations over the past two centuries have led to greater CO2 uptake by the oceans. This acidification process has changed the saturation state of the oceans with respect to calcium carbonate (CaCO3) particles. Here we estimate the in situ CaCO3 dissolution rates for the global oceans from total alkalinity and chlorofluorocarbon data, and we also discuss the future impacts of anthropogenic CO2 on CaCO3 shell–forming species. CaCO3 dissolution rates, ranging from 0.003 to 1.2 micromoles per kilogram per year, are observed beginning near the aragonite saturation horizon. The total water column CaCO3 dissolution rate for the global oceans is approximately 0.5  0.2 petagrams of CaCO 3-C per year, which is approximately 45 to 65% of the export production of CaCO 3.

Impacts of California’s Five-Year (2012-2016) Drought on Hydroelectricity Generation

Pacific Institute | April 13th, 2017

The severe hydrological drought afflicting California between 2012 and 2016 has ended, with an extremely wet winter beginning in October 2016. That five-year per

The severe hydrological drought afflicting California between 2012 and 2016 has ended, with an extremely wet winter beginning in October 2016. That five-year period was the driest and hottest in the instrumental record going back to the late 1800s. Impacts on communities, ecosystems, farmers, and the economy were widespread but have been unevenly distributed. The Pacific Institute has regularly analyzed the consequences of California droughts, beginning with comprehensive assessments of the 1987-1992 drought (Gleick and Nash 1991, Nash 1993), the 2007-2009 drought (Christian-Smith et al. 2011), and this most recent drought (Cooley et al. 2015, Gleick 2015, Cooley et al. 2016, Feinstein et al. 2017). This analysis is the third assessment of the impacts of the drought on hydropower production and greenhouse gas emissions from California’s energy sector (Gleick 2015, Gleick 2016). This analysis finds that during the five years ending September 30, 2016 (the end of the 2016 “water year”), hydropower generation was substantially below average, and the associated economic cost to California ratepayers was approximately $2.45 billion dollars. The additional combustion of fossil fuels for electricity generation also led to a 10 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions from California’s in-state power plants (CARB 2015) along with increased emissions of other pollutants.