El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 7th, 2017

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty i

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Elevated Grand Canyon groundwater recharge during the warm Early Holocene

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 2nd, 2023

Summer rainfall is an important contributor to water budgets in western North American deserts, where intense rainfall sustains ecosystems while also causing flash floods

Summer rainfall is an important contributor to water budgets in western North American deserts, where intense rainfall sustains ecosystems while also causing flash floods and damaging erosion. A better understanding of Grand Canyon palaeoclimate and the long-term history of the summer monsoon from summer-sensitive palaeoclimate records will improve our ability to project future hydroclimatic changes under warmer conditions. Here we show multi-proxy evidence for an intensification of the Early Holocene (11,700–8,200 years ago) hydrological cycle linked to a stronger and expanded summer North American Monsoon from calcite oxygen and uranium isotopes in a uranium-series precisely dated stalagmite from a Grand Canyon cave. Our results suggest that subsurface infiltration was greater in the Early Holocene than today at Grand Canyon. A data–model comparison with an isotope-enabled climate model suggests that enhanced infiltration was due to an Early Holocene monsoon intensification associated with rising atmospheric temperature. Projections of a future increase in precipitation intensity or more frequent and expanded North American monsoon rain events may paradoxically result in increased subsurface infiltration at Grand Canyon and other high-altitude plateaus, even within the context of western North American aridification in a hotter climate.

Emergency Drought Barriers

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | April 26th, 2022

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 25th, 2024

Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationar

Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends

Emerging trends in global freshwater availability

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 17th, 2018

Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) sat

Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites during 2002–2016 and categorize their drivers as natural interannual variability, unsustainable groundwater consumption, climate change or combinations thereof. Several of these trends had been lacking thorough investigation and attribution, including massive changes in northwestern China and the Okavango Delta. Others are consistent with climate model predictions. This observation-based assessment of how the world’s water landscape is responding to human impacts and climate variations provides a blueprint for evaluating and predicting emerging threats to water and food security.

Emerging understanding of the potential role of seagrass and kelp as an ocean acidification management tool in California

California Ocean Science Trust (OST) | January 2nd, 2018

This report was produced by the OPC-SAT working group and Ocean Science Trust on behalf of the Ocean Protection Council (OPC) and the broader community of California man

This report was produced by the OPC-SAT working group and Ocean Science Trust on behalf of the Ocean Protection Council (OPC) and the broader community of California managers with the aim of: • communicating emerging scientific understanding of the ability of seagrass and macroalgae (kelps) to ameliorate ocean acidification (OA) in a California-specific context, • summarizing knowledge gaps and opportunities for filling them through research and monitoring, and • providing guidance on next steps for the State as it considers future nature-based actions to reduce the negative impacts of OA in California and beyond.

Empirical Models of Shallow Groundwater and Multi-Hazard Flood Forecasts as Sea-Levels Rise

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 8th, 2025

Knowledge of coastal hydrogeology and hazards as groundwater responds to sea-level rise (SLR) can be improved through installation of shallow groundwater monitoring piezo

Knowledge of coastal hydrogeology and hazards as groundwater responds to sea-level rise (SLR) can be improved through installation of shallow groundwater monitoring piezometers and continuous observations. Interpolation of site data enables mapping of the present-day state of groundwater elevation, depth to groundwater (DTW), their temporal statistical variation, and differing spatial responses to tides and rainfall. Future DTW and its variability can be projected under increments of SLR, with assumptions and caveats, to show where and when episodic and/or permanent inundation can be expected. This methodology is outlined in a case study of Dunedin, New Zealand, which enabled comparison of rising groundwater's contribution to pluvial flooding and groundwater emergence with coastal inundation. Changes in relative land exposure with SLR shows evolution in flood hazard from current pluvial-dominated events, into “flooding from below” and groundwater emergence, in advance of any overland coastal inundation. Dunedin exemplifies how groundwater transfers effects of SLR surprisingly far inland, but the lowest-lying or shoreline-proximal suburbs are not necessarily the most vulnerable. Unlike coastal inundation, rising groundwater is unconstrained by protective topography and presents as a creeping hazard, or contributor to hazards such as pluvial flooding, which can be widespread, occurring already and difficult to defend against. The empirical models contain assumptions and uncertainties important to the veracity of results and application. While conservative (“risk averse”) and a compromise from computationally expensive numerical solutions, their value is in providing the spatial and temporal precision needed for multi-source hazard assessment and holistic adaptive planning.

Empirical Return Periods of the Most Intense Vapor Transports during Historical Atmospheric River Landfalls on the U.S. West Coast

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | August 21st, 2018

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) come in all intensities, and clear communication of risks posed by individual storms in observations and forecasts can be a challenge. Modest AR

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) come in all intensities, and clear communication of risks posed by individual storms in observations and forecasts can be a challenge. Modest ARs can be characterized by the percentile rank of their integrated water vapor transport (IVT) rates compared to past ARs. Stronger ARs can be categorized more clearly in terms of return periods or, equivalently, historical probabilities that at least one AR will exceed a given IVT threshold in any given year. Based on a 1980–2016 chronology ofAR landfalls on the U.S. West Coast from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), datasets, the largest instantaneous IVTs—greater than 1700 kgm21 s21—have occurred in ARs making landfall between 418 and 468Nwith return periods longer than 20 years. IVT values with similar return periods are smaller to the north and, especially, to the south (declining to ;750 kgm21 s21). The largest storm-sequence IVT totals have been centered near 42.58N, with scatter among the top few events, and these large storm-sequence totals depend more on sequence duration than on the instantaneous IVT that went into them. Maximum instantaneous IVTs are largest in the Pacific Northwest in autumn, with largest IVT values arriving farther south as winter and spring unfold, until maximum IVTs reach Northern California in spring.

Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 14th, 2025

Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | February 28th, 2018

Past attempts to estimate rainfall-driven flood risk across the US either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flood

Past attempts to estimate rainfall-driven flood risk across the US either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30 m resolution model of the entire conterminous US with a 2D representation of flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard, which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. These flood depths are combined with exposure datasets of commensurate resolution to calculate current and future flood risk. Our data show that the total US population exposed to serious flooding is 2.6–3.1 times higher than previous estimates, and that nearly 41 million Americans live within the 1% annual exceedance probability floodplain (compared to only 13 million when calculated using FEMA flood maps). We find that population and GDP growth alone are expected to lead to significant future increases in exposure, and this change may be exacerbated in the future by climate change.