Incorporating Wetlands into Watershed Planning

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) | February 26th, 2013

The purpose of this Supplement is to encourage the inclusion of proactive wetland management into watershed plans because wetlands play an integral role in the healthy fu

The purpose of this Supplement is to encourage the inclusion of proactive wetland management into watershed plans because wetlands play an integral role in the healthy functioning of the watershed. This Supplement promotes using a watershed approach that not only protects existing freshwater wetlands but also maximizes opportunities to use restored, enhanced, and created freshwater wetlands to address watershed problems such as habitat loss, hydrological alteration, and water quality impairments. The primary audiences for the Supplement are members and staff of watershed organizations and local/state agencies. This document is a Supplement to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Watershed Planning Handbook. It conveys information on recently developed approaches and tools for assessing wetland functions and conditions, the results of which assist decision makers in determining where in a watershed existing and former wetlands can best be restored or enhanced, or where wetlands can be created to optimize their functions in support of water quality and other watershed management plan goals. The Supplement also discusses wetland restoration, enhancement, and creation techniques and reviews the considerations involved in deciding how best to undertake a wetlands project. EPA’s Watershed Planning Handbook and other scientific resources emphasize the importance of the watershed as a management unit in which elements and processes operate over different spatial and temporal scales. The literature also emphasizes the importance of planning and implementing projects aimed at protecting or restoring water quality (or meeting similar goals) within the context of the watershed.

Incorporation of Adaptive Management into Conservation Planning and Resource Management

California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) | July 2nd, 2014

This document was prepared by the Science Institute to provide information to CDFW’s Divisions and Regions as they incorporate adaptive management in their conservation

This document was prepared by the Science Institute to provide information to CDFW’s Divisions and Regions as they incorporate adaptive management in their conservation and resource management decisions and planning documents. It highlights statutory definitions, statements of policy and requirements that are relevant to CDFW’s activities, and summarizes descriptions and evaluations of adaptive management in the technical literature. This information is relevant to all CDFW activities involving the conservation and management of natural resources under the jurisdiction of CDFW. However, given the breadth of CDFW’s Mission and the wide variety of regulatory, management and scientific roles CDFW plays, it should be emphasized that this information does not present a one-size-fits all approach to adaptive management. Rather, where adaptive management principles are appropriate and applicable in a given situation, the discussion and resources in this document should highlight issues for consideration under the specific circumstances at hand. CDFW affirms that project-specific circumstances always necessitate the development of project-specific adaptive management strategies. The information in this document is provided as a tool to be used, where appropriate, to support CDFW’s Divisions and Regions as they implement the CDFW Mission. The general principles presented here are not intended to be relied upon absent, or in lieu of, site- or project-specific analysis that shapes the application of these principles.

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 6th, 2023

Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 28th, 2020

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the “turn-of-the-century drought,” was likely more severe than any in th

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the “turn-of-the-century drought,” was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of stream- flow from a network of 17 new tree-ring–based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management.

Increased flood exposure due to climate change and population growth in the United States

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 30th, 2021

Precipitation extremes are increasing globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, there remains uncertainty regarding impacts upon flood occurrence and subseq

Precipitation extremes are increasing globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, there remains uncertainty regarding impacts upon flood occurrence and subsequent population exposure. Here, we quantify changes in population exposure to flood hazard across the contiguous United States. We combine simulations from a climate model large ensemble and a high‐resolution hydrodynamic flood model—allowing us to directly assess changes across a wide range of extreme precipitation magnitudes and accumulation timescales. We report a mean increase in the 100‐year precipitation event of ~20% (magnitude) and >200% (frequency) in a high warming scenario, yielding a ~30–127% increase in population exposure. We further find a nonlinear increase for the most intense precipitation events—suggesting accelerating societal impacts from historically rare or unprecedented precipitation events in the 21st century.

Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 Central European drought under global warming

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 6th, 2020

Since the spring 2018, a large part of Europe has been in the midst of a record-setting drought. Using long-term observations, we demonstrate that the occurrence of the

Since the spring 2018, a large part of Europe has been in the midst of a record-setting drought. Using long-term observations, we demonstrate that the occurrence of the 2018–2019 (consecutive) summer drought is unprecedented in the last 250 years, and its combined impact on the growing season vegetation activities is stronger compared to the 2003 European drought. Using a suite of climate model simulation outputs, we underpin the role of anthropogenic warming on exacerbating the future risk of such a consecutive drought event. Under the highest Representative Concentration Pathway, (RCP 8.5), we notice a seven-fold increase in the occurrence of the consecutive droughts, with additional 40 ( ±5 ) million ha of cultivated areas being affected by such droughts, during the second half of the twenty-first century. The occurrence is significantly reduced under low and medium scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), suggesting that an effective mitigation strategy could aid in reducing the risk of future consecutive droughts.

Increased Interannual Precipitation Extremes over California under Climate Change

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | August 10th, 2015

Changes to mean and extreme wet season precipitation over California on interannual time scales are analyzed using twenty-first-century precipitation data from 34

Changes to mean and extreme wet season precipitation over California on interannual time scales are analyzed using twenty-first-century precipitation data from 34 global climate models. Models disagree on the sign of projected changes in mean precipitation, although in most models the change is very small compared to historical and simulated levels of interannual variability. For the 2020/21–2059/60 period, there is no projected increase in the frequency of extremely dry wet seasons in the ensemble mean. Wet extremes are found to increase to around 2 times the historical frequency, which is statistically significant at the 95% level. Stronger signals emerge in the 2060/61–2099/2100 period. Across all models, extremely dry wet seasons are roughly 1.5 to 2 times more common, and wet extremes generally triple in their historical frequency (statistically significant). Large increases in precipitation variability in most models account for the modest increases to dry extremes. Increases in the frequency of wet extremes can be ascribed to equal contributions from increased variability and increases to the mean. These increases in the frequency of interannual precipitation extremes will create severe water management problems in a region where coping with large interannual variability in precipitation is already a challenge. Evidence from models and observations is examined to understand the causes of the low precipitation associated with the 2013/14 drought in California. These lines of evidence all strongly indicate that the low 2013/14 wet season precipitation total can be very likely attributed to natural variability, in spite of the projected future changes in extremes.

Increases in Anthropogenic Gadolinium Anomalies and Rare Earth Element Concentrations in San Francisco Bay over a 20 Year Record

American Chemical Society (ACS) | January 7th, 2016

We evaluated both the spatial distribution of gadolinium (Gd) and other rare earth elements (REE) in surface waters collected in a transect of San Francisco Bay (SFB) a

We evaluated both the spatial distribution of gadolinium (Gd) and other rare earth elements (REE) in surface waters collected in a transect of San Francisco Bay (SFB) and their temporal variations within the Bay over two decades. The REE were preconcentrated using the NOBIAS PA-1 resin prior to analysis by high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Measurements revealed a temporal increase in the Gd anomaly in SFB from the early 1990s to the present. The highest Gd anomalies were observed in the southern reach of SFB, which is surrounded by several hospitals and research centers that use Gd-based contrast agents for magnetic resonance imaging. Recent increases in that usage presumably contributed to the order of magnitude increase in anthropogenic Gd concentrations in SFB, from 8.27 to 112 pmol kg−1 over the past two decades, and reach the northeast Pacific coastal waters. These measurements (i) show that “exotic” trace elements used in new high-tech applications, such as Gd, are emerging contaminants in San Francisco Bay and that anthropogenic Gd concentrations increased substantially over a 20 year period; (ii) substantiate proposals that REE may be used as tracers of wastewater discharges and hydrological processes; and (iii) suggest that new public policies and the development of more effective treatment technologies may be necessary to control sources and minimize future contamination by REE that are critical for the development of new technologies, which now overwhelm natural REE anomalies.

Increasing elevation of fire in the Sierra Nevada and implications for forest change

Ecological Society of America (ESA) | July 23rd, 2015

Fire in high‐elevation forest ecosystems can have severe impacts on forest structure, function and biodiversity. Using a 105‐year data set, we found increasing elevat

Fire in high‐elevation forest ecosystems can have severe impacts on forest structure, function and biodiversity. Using a 105‐year data set, we found increasing elevation extent of fires in the Sierra Nevada, and pose five hypotheses to explain this pattern. Beyond the recognized pattern of increasing fire frequency in the Sierra Nevada since the late 20th century, we find that the upper elevation extent of those fires has also been increasing. Factors such as fire season climate and fuel build up are recognized potential drivers of changes in fire regimes. Patterns of warming climate and increasing stand density are consistent with both the direction and magnitude of increasing elevation of wildfire. Reduction in high elevation wildfire suppression and increasing ignition frequencies may also contribute to the observed pattern. Historical biases in fire reporting are recognized, but not likely to explain the observed patterns. The four plausible mechanistic hypotheses (changes in fire management, climate, fuels, ignitions) are not mutually exclusive, and likely have synergistic interactions that may explain the observed changes. Irrespective of mechanism, the observed pattern of increasing occurrence of fire in these subalpine forests may have significant impacts on their resilience to changing climatic conditions.

Increasing Hydroclimatic Whiplash Can Amplify Wildfire Risk in a Warming Climate

Global Change Biology (Wiley) | February 7th, 2025

The catastrophic January 2025 fires were propelled by an especially extreme combination of these two recognized risk factors: (1) downslope wind gusts over 80 mph (35 m/s

The catastrophic January 2025 fires were propelled by an especially extreme combination of these two recognized risk factors: (1) downslope wind gusts over 80 mph (35 m/s) and exceptionally dry vegetation following a historically dry start to the rainy season and unusually warm antecedent temperatures driving a prolonged episode of elevated atmospheric evaporative demand. But there was also a third contributor: two consecutive anomalously wet winters (in 2022–2023 and 2023–2024), which led to abundant growth of herbaceous vegetation across CSC. This remarkable wet-to-dry sequence, therefore, set the stage for the CSC wildfire disasters to unfold by first facilitating prodigious fuel accumulation during the previous growing seasons, then subsequently drying vegetation to produce exceptional flammability unusually far into winter (when Santa Ana winds are common). Globally, climate change has increased wildfire potential primarily through greater aridity (Jain et al. 2022). In CSC, hotter summer and autumn seasons drive this aridity by increasing evaporative demand (i.e., atmospheric “thirst”), subsequently drying out vegetation. This, in conjunction with an increasingly delayed onset of the rainy season (Goss et al. 2020), may also be increasing temporal overlap between critically dry vegetation and Santa Ana winds (Swain 2021). As the events of January 2025 vividly illustrate, however, transitions from anomalously wet to anomalously dry conditions may further amplify these risks by exacerbating fuel accumulation and desiccation cycles. Indeed, in fire regimes (including CSC) where fire occurrence varies strongly with inter-annual variations in biomass (Swetnam et al. 2016), increased hydroclimate volatility is causally linked to increased wildfire activity.