Shifts in MJO behavior enhance predictability of subseasonal precipitation whiplashes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 28th, 2025

Shrinking lakes, air pollution, and human health: Evidence from California's Salton Sea

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | January 7th, 2020

Due to increased water withdrawals and ongoing climate change, many inland lakes around the world are shrinking and dry lake beds can be significant sources of particulat

Due to increased water withdrawals and ongoing climate change, many inland lakes around the world are shrinking and dry lake beds can be significant sources of particulate matter air pollution. Using a natural experiment provided by the shrinking Salton Sea in California, this paper shows that each one-foot drop in lake elevation is associated with a 0.28 μg/m3 (2.6%) increase in PM2.5 concentrations. IV model results then show that Salton Sea-induced changes in PM2.5 over 1998–2014 led to increases in respiratory mortality of 1.4/yr.–15.6/yr. in the counties surrounding the lake, generating $13.2–$147.3 million in annual health costs.

Small Water Systems and Rural Communities Drought and Water Shortage Contingency Planning and Risk Assessment, Part 1

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 25th, 2021

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42, which directs the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small wate

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42, which directs the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small water suppliers and rural communities that may be at risk of drought and water shortage vulnerability, and to propose recommendations and information in support of improving their drought preparedness. The report is published in two parts: Part 1 deals with drought and water shortage contingency planning recommendations, and Part 2 presents a methodology of drought and water shortage vulnerability assessment and risk scoring. Additionally, below are links for Part 1 appendices. Appendix 1: Literature Review Appendix 2: Proposed Water Shortage Contingency Plan Components for Small Water Systems Serving 1,000 to 2,999 Service Connections Appendix 3: Proposed Umbrella Water Shortage Contingency Plan Components Appendix 4: Indian Health Service Template for a Drought Contingency Plan for a Tribal Public Water System Appendix 5: County Drought Advisory Group General Funding and Financing Issues

Small Water Systems and Rural Communities Drought and Water Shortage Contingency Planning and Risk Assessment, Part 2

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 25th, 2021

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42 which directs California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small water sup

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42 which directs California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small water suppliers and rural communities that may be at risk of drought and water shortage vulnerability and propose recommendations and information in support of improving the drought preparedness of small water suppliers and rural communities. The report is published in two parts: Part 1 dealing with drought and water shortage contingency planning recommendations, and Part 2 presenting a methodology and results of drought and water shortage vulnerability assessment and risk scoring. Additionally, below are links for Part 2 appendices. Appendix 1: Drought and Water Shortage Risk Scoring: California’s Small Water Supplier and Self-Supplied Communities Appendix 2: Drought and Water Shortage Risk Scoring: Risk Score Results of Small Water Suppliers Appendix 3: Drought and Water Shortage Risk Scoring: Risk Score Results of Self-Supplied Communities

Socio-hydrological drought impacts on urban water affordability

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 19th, 2023

In water-stressed regions, droughts pose a critical challenge to urban water security for low-income households. Droughts reduce water availability, forcing water provide

In water-stressed regions, droughts pose a critical challenge to urban water security for low-income households. Droughts reduce water availability, forcing water providers to invest in additional supplies or enact expensive, short-term emergency measures. These costs are frequently passed on to households through increased rates and surcharges, driving up water bills for low-income households and altering patterns of water consumption. Here we have developed a socio-hydrological modelling approach that integrates hydrology, water infrastructure, utility decision-making and household behaviour to understand the impacts of droughts on household water affordability. We present here an application based on Santa Cruz, California and show that many drought resilience strategies raise water bills for low-income households and lower them for high-income households. We also found that low-income households are most vulnerable to both changing drought characteristics and infrastructure lock-in.

Socio‐ecohydrology and the urban water challenge

Ecohydrology (Wiley) | March 11th, 2011

Urban water systems are highly engineered. However, hydrology and ecology are still closely linked in semi‐arid urban ecosystems in which surface characteristics, veget

Urban water systems are highly engineered. However, hydrology and ecology are still closely linked in semi‐arid urban ecosystems in which surface characteristics, vegetation, and water flows are all highly transformed. Although these systems are human‐dominated, there are many uncertainties in the water budgets of semi‐arid cities, because evapotranspiration, runoff, groundwater recharge, and leakage are poorly constrained. Decision‐making, governance, and socioeconomic factors play important roles in determining urban hydrologic budgets. We offer a framework to integrate these factors in studies that combine biophysical and social dimensions of the urban water system using the example of western US cities, which are facing critical issues in water supply and demand, and which can benefit from a more comprehensive understanding of the factors that determine water consumption, distribution and availability. Because of the severity of the water crisis in the western US, and the biophysical, institutional, and cultural barriers to developing and implementing new water management practices, this region provides useful lessons for addressing water challenges in other regions.

Solar and wind energy enhances drought resilience and groundwater sustainability

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 6th, 2019

Water scarcity brings tremendous challenges to achieving sustainable development of water resources, food, and energy security, as these sectors are often in co

Water scarcity brings tremendous challenges to achieving sustainable development of water resources, food, and energy security, as these sectors are often in competition, especially during drought. Overcoming these challenges requires balancing trade-offs between sectors and improving resilience to drought impacts. An under-appreciated factor in managing the water-food-energy (WFE) nexus is the increased value of solar and wind energy (SWE). Here we develop a trade-off frontier framework to quantify the water sustainability value of SWE through a case study in California. We identify development pathways that optimize the economic value of water in competition for energy and food production while ensuring sustainable use of groundwater. Our results indicate that in the long term, SWE penetration creates beneficial feedback for the WFE nexus: SWE enhances drought resilience and benefits groundwater sustainability, and in turn, maintaining groundwater at a sustainable level increases the added value of SWE to energy and food production.

Southwestern United States drought of the 21st century presages drier conditions into the future

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 19th, 2022

Intense drought has occurred in the United States Southwest this century, causing unprecedented stress to water resources. Here we use paleoclimate and instrumental reco

Intense drought has occurred in the United States Southwest this century, causing unprecedented stress to water resources. Here we use paleoclimate and instrumental records to establish that the recent temperature rise is incompatible with random draws from past fluctuations, including the current period of warming. Consistent with and extending previous reconstructions, we find that the ongoing drought is the most intense at the 21-year scale back to 600 CE. Evaluation using standardized regression coefficients shows that recent warming damps the effect of moisture delivery on the Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index by approximately one-third. The probability of full recovery of the current moisture deficit is unlikely even by mid-century and about five percent in 10-15 years. Evaluation of future climate simulations indicates increasing regional temperature stress and soil moisture depletion, and coupled with long recovery periods for moisture delivery, very low chance for regional mega-reservoirs to regain full-capacity levels assuming current demand.

Spatial based drought assessment: Where are we heading? A review on the current status and future

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | July 13th, 2022

Droughts are the most spatially complex natural hazards that exert global impacts and are further aggravated by climate change. The investigation of drought events is cha

Droughts are the most spatially complex natural hazards that exert global impacts and are further aggravated by climate change. The investigation of drought events is challenging as it involves numerous factors ranging from detection and assessment to modelling, management and mitigation. The analysis of these factors and their quantitative assessments have significantly evolved in recent times. In this paper, we review recent methods used to examine and model droughts from a spatial viewpoint. Our analysis was conducted at three spatial scales (point-wise, regional and global) and we evaluated how recent spatial methods have advanced our understanding of drought through case study examples. Further, we also examine and provide a broad overview of relevant case studies related to future drought occurrences under climate change. This study is a comprehensive synthesis of the various quantitative techniques used to assess the spatial characteristics of droughts at different spatial scales, and not an exhaustive review of all drought aspects. However, this serves as a basis for understanding the key milestones and advances accomplished through new spatial concepts relative to the traditional approaches to study drought. This work also aims to address the gaps in knowledge that are in need of further attention and provides recommendations to improve our understanding of droughts.

Spatiotemporal patterns of U.S. drought awareness

Palgrave Communications | September 17th, 2019

Drought is a creeping climatological phenomenon with persistent precipitation deficits. Unlike rapid onset natural hazards such as floods and wildfires, the intan

Drought is a creeping climatological phenomenon with persistent precipitation deficits. Unlike rapid onset natural hazards such as floods and wildfires, the intangible and gradual characteristics of drought cause a lack of social response during the onset. The level of awareness of a local drought increases rapidly through mass media reports and online information searching activities when the drought reaches its peak severity. This high level of local drought awareness drives concerns for water shortage and support for water policy. However, spatiotemporal patterns of national-scale drought awareness have never been studied due to constraints imposed by time-consuming and costly survey data collection and surveys’ limited sample sizes. Here, we present the national-scale study to reveal the spatiotemporal patterns of drought awareness over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using Google Trends data and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Results show that the first two PC modes can explain 48% (38% for PC1 and 10% for PC2) of the total variance of state-level drought awareness. We find that the PC1 mode relates to a national pattern of drought awareness across the CONUS. The spatiotemporal patterns further imply that residents in the Northeastern US region are the most aware of the emergence of drought, regardless of the geographic location of the occurrence. The results illustrate how big data, such as search query and social media data, can help develop an effective and efficient plan for drought mitigation in the future.