Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | February 22nd, 2022

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addres

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency Bulletin 17C

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | May 1st, 2019

Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 8th, 2014

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, and local

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, and local flood management agencies have worked for decades to reduce the risk and consequences of flooding in the State. The people of California have shown that they understand the increasing flood risk due to population growth, environmental concerns, climate change, and land use practices, and they are willing to invest in flood risk management projects. This requires the public agencies responsible for California’s flood risk management to demonstrate the value of those investments both before and after they are implemented. This Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments (HAV) supports that effort. The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) has identified foundational goals that shape the State’s water management investment strategy. Those goals are: Improving public safety Fostering environmental stewardship Supporting economic stability

Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 1st, 2014

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, a

Millions of people and over half a trillion dollars in assets are exposed to flood risk in California (DWR 2013a). This remains the case even as State, federal, and local flood management agencies have worked for decades to reduce the risk and consequences of flooding in the State. The people of California have shown that they understand the increasing flood risk due to population growth, environmental concerns, climate change, and land use practices, and they are willing to invest in flood risk management projects. This requires the public agencies responsible for California’s flood risk management to demonstrate the value of those investments both before and after they are implemented. This Handbook for Assessing Value of State Flood Management Investments (HAV) supports that effort.

High Resolution Measurement of Levee Subsidence Related to Energy Infrastructure in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 31st, 2018

We assess flood overtopping potential (when flood water elevation exceeds levee elevation) to the levees surrounding the islands in the interior of California's S

We assess flood overtopping potential (when flood water elevation exceeds levee elevation) to the levees surrounding the islands in the interior of California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Because critical natural gas infrastructure is susceptible to overtopping-related disruption, we focus our analysis on regions that are crossed by the network of the state's natural gas pipelines. We use laser scanning data collected during 2015-2016 to estimate subsidence rates since 2007 when an earlier, Delta-wide, airborne laser-scanning topographic dataset was collected. For each levee studied, we combine: (1) the estimated subsidence rate, (2) a conservative range of sea-level rise projections and, (3) an estimate of the 100-year freshwater flood stage to project the time until exceedance of the federal levee height standard (PL84-99). We find that subsidence rates vary from 0-5 centimeters per year (cm/yr) with mean values of ~1-2 cm/year. Local gradients in subsidence can be on the order of cms/yr over a distance of 10s of meters parallel to the levee crests, and these types of gradients are present near some pipeline crossings. The Sherman Island region has subsidence rates close to a factor of 2 greater than other areas considered. Our projections indicate general ranges of exceedance date from about 2060 (fast sea-level rise scenario) to 2080 (slow sea-level rise scenario) with some places projected to exceed threshold by about 2050.

Highlights Central Valley Flood Protection Plan 2022 Update

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 23rd, 2023

The 2022 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan Update was adopted by the Central Valley Flood Protection Board on December 16th, 2022. Just days later, beginning on Decemb

The 2022 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan Update was adopted by the Central Valley Flood Protection Board on December 16th, 2022. Just days later, beginning on December 27th, 2022, a series of atmospheric rivers began to impact California. This succession of atmospheric rivers resulted in 34 trillion gallons of water falling across California in 24 days, and 21 forecast points in the Central Valley reaching flood or monitor stage. Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on January 4th, 2023; federal emergency and disaster declarations followed soon thereafter. These events underscore the importance of the CVFPP as the State’s strategic blueprint for investment in flood risk reduction in the Central Valley, especially in an era of whiplash weather—from drought to flooding— driven by the impacts of climate change.

Hillslope Stability and Land Use

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 1st, 1985

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Water Resources Monograph Series, Volume 11. This monograph compiles research findings on soil mass movement

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Water Resources Monograph Series, Volume 11. This monograph compiles research findings on soil mass movement into a format usable by practitioners and students. Applications are stressed in the areas of extensive and management practices rather than engineering earthworks. Examples are included to illustrate various prediction, avoidance, and control measures used in managing unstable terrain. We use the term soil (i.e., soil mass movement) to mean the mantle of unconsolidated or poorly consolidated material of either residual or transported origin, that overlies bedrock and forms the surface of the land. This usage is consistent with the conventional civil engineering use of the word and is synonymous with the geological term regolith and with soil mantle.

Historical and future relations between large storms and droughts in California

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 14th, 2016

California precipitation varies more dramatically from year to year than elsewhere in the conterminous United States. This paper analyzes the extent to which contribution

California precipitation varies more dramatically from year to year than elsewhere in the conterminous United States. This paper analyzes the extent to which contributions of the wettest days to overall precipitation dictate the state’s precipitation seasonality and frequent multiyear periods of drought (as precipitation deficit) and plenty is analyzed, historically and in projections of future climates. The wettest 5% of wet days in California contribute about a third of precipitation but about two-thirds of the variance of water-year precipitation. Year-to-year fluctuations in precipitation strongly reflect year-to-year fluctuations of contributions from the largest storms, with the large-storm contributions explaining about twice as much precipitation fluctuation as do contributions from all remaining storms combined. This extreme dominance of large storms is largely unique to California within the United States. In climate-change projections, eight of ten climate models considered here yield increases in precipitation from the largest storms, and when the increases are large, total precipitation follows suit. All of the models project declines in contributions from the smaller storms and models projecting total-precipitation declines reflect this decline. Projected changes in variance of water-year precipitation reflect changes in variance of large-storm contributions. The disproportionately large overall contributions from California’s largest storms, and their outsized year-to-year variability, ensure that the state’s largest storms dictate the state’s regimes of wet and dry spells, historically and in climate-change projections.

Hourly storm characteristics along the U.S. West Coast: Role of atmospheric rivers in extreme precipitation

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 21st, 2017

Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation t

Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation totals. Despite generally lower hourly intensities, precipitation totals along the U.S. West Coast (USWC) are comparable to those in southeast U.S. (SEUS). Storm durations, more so than hourly intensities, strongly modulate precipitation-total variability over the USWC, where the correlation coefficients between storm durations and storm totals range from 0.7 to 0.9. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute 30–50% of annual precipitation on the USWC and make such large contributions to extreme storms that 60–100% of the most extreme storms, i.e., storms with precipitation-total return intervals longer than 2 years, are associated with ARs. These extreme storm totals are more strongly tied to storm durations than to storm hourly or average intensities, emphasizing the importance of AR persistence to extreme storms on the USWC.

How freeing rivers can help California ease flood risks and revive ecosystems

Los Angeles Times | February 20th, 2024

Natural floodplains — the lush green lands along rivers that historically flooded, retained water, and nourished life in the heart of the valley — were mostly drained

Natural floodplains — the lush green lands along rivers that historically flooded, retained water, and nourished life in the heart of the valley — were mostly drained and converted to farmland generations ago as the state’s waters were dammed and diverted. Today, an effort to bring back some of those floodplains is flourishing at the 2,100-acre Dos Rios Ranch Preserve near Modesto, where workers years ago planted native trees on retired farm fields and removed berms to create space for water to spread out again.