Water Demand Projection Accuracy and Demand Management Trends in California Cities

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 21st, 2025

This study investigates the accuracy of long-term water demand projections and tracks the evolution of water demand management incentives across 61 California water suppl

This study investigates the accuracy of long-term water demand projections and tracks the evolution of water demand management incentives across 61 California water suppliers from 2000 to 2020. Through a systematic analysis of Urban Water Management Plans, we find that water suppliers consistently overestimated future demand by an average of 25% for 5-year projections and 74% for 20-year projections. This overestimation stems primarily from assumptions about per capita water demand rather than population growth estimates. While suppliers generally projected stable or increasing per capita demand, actual water demand per capita declined by 1.9% annually between 2000 and 2020, leading to a decoupling of water demand from population growth. Concurrently, we document a substantial increase in water demand management incentives, with non-voluntary regulations emerging as the dominant demand management approach by 2020, largely driven by state policies like the Model Water Efficient Landscape Ordinance and California Green Building Standards. Demand management efforts have evolved from primarily indoor and educational initiatives toward outdoor-focused non-voluntary regulations and rebates. This shift appears closely linked to the reduction in per capita demand that suppliers failed to fully capture in their water demand projections. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating dynamic conservation trends into demand projections and suggest that suppliers should develop more sophisticated forecasting methods that account for the continuing evolution of water efficiency incentives. This research provides valuable insights for water resource planners seeking to improve the accuracy of water demand projections in an era of increasing conservation and climate uncertainty.

Water Distribution System Efficiency: An Essential or Neglected Part of the Water Conservation Strategy for Los Angeles County Water Retailers?

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) | November 2nd, 2015

The water governance system in Los Angeles County is complex and fragmented. Potable water supply in metropolitan Los Angeles County relies on over 100 water retailers, b

The water governance system in Los Angeles County is complex and fragmented. Potable water supply in metropolitan Los Angeles County relies on over 100 water retailers, both public and private. It is unclear how the current system with many small water retailers will succeed in promoting integrated water resource management. Among other changes, there will need to be a shifting of water supply sources from predominantly imported to more local resources through conservation, recycled water usage, stormwater capture and groundwater management. The institutional capacity of water retailers to instigate this transition will depend heavily on their capacity to maintain reliable water deliveries without significant losses from leakage and failing infrastructure. Additionally, with drought conditions prevalent in eleven of the last fourteen years in California, and increasing evidence of climate change impacts on all water resources in California, it is crucial that water retailers minimize water losses through their distribution systems to match the increasingly stringent conservation efforts required of their customers, and to efficiently utilize scarce supplies.  Until this year, existing regulations for water agencies in California only requested information about system losses for potable water systems with more than 3000 connections. These numbers were reported through Urban Water Management Plans every five years. However, loss estimates through breaks and leaks have not been separated out from other non-revenue uses of water. To date, the most effective efforts to monitor water losses in California are voluntary and limited to members of the California Urban Water Conservation Council. To understand water distribution efficiency in urban Los Angeles County, we developed a questionnaire regarding leakage monitoring, system-wide water losses, and the implementation of pre-emptive best management practices. We surveyed 10 of the approximate total of 100 water retailers. The sample was representative of retailers of many types, sizes, and geographical locations in metropolitan Los Angeles and divided into tiers of size (small, mid-sized and large) based on the number of connections served. The survey questionnaire also addressed other metrics including per capita water consumption, leakage volumes, water loss estimation methodology, water loss estimates and infrastructure monitoring and replacement. The survey indicated several findings. First, the percentage of water loss due to breaks and leaks, though possibly misrepresentative, is still a widely used metric to measure water losses. Sixty percent of the agencies sampled still monitor only ‘unaccounted for water’ and not ‘real losses’. Retailers that do measure real losses reported them to be between 3-4% of total water supplied, which is an improbably low compared to international estimates as elaborated in the literature review section. Different water retailers were divided on the efficacy of leak detection technologies, which demands more education on available leak detection technology and their usage.  Larger retailers reported greater use of most of the best management practices addressed by our survey to maintain storage and distribution systems. Most small retailers did not report prioritizing adoption and implementation of best management practices to minimize water loss. Also, small Mutual Water Companies that we contacted did not have information on distribution water losses available publicly. To improve water efficiency, small retailers could pool resources and expertise to better detect, monitor and reduce distribution water losses. Investor-owned utilities and special water districts serve a large customer base, but as a group, they were least responsive of all the sample water retailers we contacted. In summary, California water regulations should aim at recommending crucial best management practices, ensuring accurate and verifiable water loss monitoring and prescribing an effective water loss metric and maximum acceptable standard as a roadmap for water retailers 

Water Forward 2024 Plan Report - Austin's 100 Year Plan

City of Austin | December 6th, 2024

Water Forward 2024 is Austin’s 100-year integrated water resource plan. The purpose of Water Forward is to develop and implement diverse and environmentally conscious w

Water Forward 2024 is Austin’s 100-year integrated water resource plan. The purpose of Water Forward is to develop and implement diverse and environmentally conscious water management strategies to adapt to growth, drought, and climate change and ensure a sustainable, resilient, equitable, and affordable water future for our community for the next 100 years. Austin Water has developed this plan to address near- and long-term water needs through a collaborative process in alignment with guiding principles crafted to reflect the Austin community’s values. 

Water Partnerships between Cities and Farms in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | October 29th, 2020

The San Joaquin Valley and urban Southern California are worlds apart in many ways. Yet each face growing water challenges and a shared interest in ensuring reliable, aff

The San Joaquin Valley and urban Southern California are worlds apart in many ways. Yet each face growing water challenges and a shared interest in ensuring reliable, affordable water supplies to safeguard their people and economies. Both regions’ water futures could be more secure if they take advantage of shared water infrastructure to jointly develop and manage some water supplies.  Increasing climate volatility is heightening concerns about droughts of the future. And two major shifts in California’s water landscape have generated new opportunities for collaboration between urban and agricultural interests. For urban areas, significant declines in water demand have reduced pressure on supplies during normal and wet years for many agencies, making reliability for future droughts the primary concern. For the overdrafted San Joaquin Valley, the requirement to manage groundwater sustainably has heightened interest in expanding water supplies and underground storage.  Partnerships between Southern California cities and San Joaquin Valley farms could help alleviate groundwater overdraft in the valley while building drought resilience in Southern California. More flexible supplies can help agencies adapt to changing conditions. By coordinating the location of infrastructure investments, agencies can use partnerships to bring the water where and when it is most needed, at least cost.  This report explores a variety of solutions that could benefit both regions. For the San Joaquin Valley, we look for ways to augment water supplies to ease the transition to groundwater sustainability, while for Southern California we explore options that would increase cities’ ability to deal effectively with extended droughts. By diversifying water supplies, building connections to share water more flexibly, and preparing for the extreme events to come, such partnerships would support Governor Newsom’s Water Resilience Portfolio, and pave the way for a shared effort to make the state’s water system more resilient to a changing climate. 

Water Surplus and Drought Management Update - Conditions as of 11/29/2022

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) | December 13th, 2022

Water Use by Urban Lawns and Trees in Los Angeles

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) | July 24th, 2017

Water Use in California

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | April 19th, 2023

Where We Agree: Building Consensus on Solutions to California’s Urban Water Challenges

Pacific Institute | March 9th, 2016

California has a long list of unresolved and difficult water challenges, made more urgent by the severe drought that is gripping the state. As the state’s population co

California has a long list of unresolved and difficult water challenges, made more urgent by the severe drought that is gripping the state. As the state’s population continues to grow and climate changes become increasingly apparent, the pressures to identify and implement solutions to these critical challenges have only intensified. Recognizing an urgent need for serious changes in the way water is managed and used in the state, a broad array of stakeholders saw an opportunity to move beyond the traditional rancor and conflict by coming together to identify pragmatic and achievable solutions to urban water challenges. During 2015, the Pacific Institute, in partnership with the California-Nevada Section of the American Water Works Association, UC Berkeley Water Center, and UC Davis Extension’s Collaboration Center, coordinated a series of in-depth Where We Agree meetings. This unique effort provided participants opportunities to set aside differences and explore water technologies and policies that would have broad support. Together, they generated a set of practical recommendations for policymakers, municipal water managers, businesses, and community groups. “It’s time to put disagreements aside and concentrate on implementing solutions that we know work and launching innovative approaches to managing the state’s water resources,” said Pacific Institute Water Program Director Heather Cooley. “I am delighted with the progress this group made to create and advance a wide range of positive, on-the-ground solutions to California’s water crisis.”