Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 7th, 2024

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 7th, 2017

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Regional Governance of Flood Management in the Central Valley

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | May 30th, 2014

California faces significant challenges in managing its highly variable water resources, particularly as climate change and a growing population exacerbate drought and fl

California faces significant challenges in managing its highly variable water resources, particularly as climate change and a growing population exacerbate drought and flood risks.  The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) and other state agencies have been encouraging integrated approaches to water management, taking into account the connections between water supply, water quality, flood protection, and ecosystem health. The recent California Water Action Plan calls for improved coordination between local, state and federal agencies and tribal governments in order to develop multi-­benefit water management strategies. Regional-­scale planning has become a crucial avenue for advancing these efforts. Initiated in 2002, the Integrated Regional Water Management Planning (IRWM) process has led to the formation of 48 water planning regions statewide, in which diverse local agencies have developed integrated plans for managing all aspects of a region’s water management. More recently, a Regional Flood Management Planning (RFMP) process was created in the context of the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan to advance integrated approaches to reducing flood risks. Six flood planning regions, overlapping with nine IRWM regions, were formed in 2012. This study analyzes the origins and functioning of the IRWM and RFMP processes, and the degree of coordination between them to address flood risks in the Central Valley. In particular, it examines how each is working to generate multi-­benefit strategies, and how they account for climate change. It also discusses opportunities for future coordination between the IRWM and RFMP processes, and DWR’s role in supporting this. This study is primarily based upon an analysis of publicly available documents related to the IRWM and RFMP processes. It is also informed by meeting observations and conversations with staff at DWR and the Central Valley Flood Protection Board, and participants in IRWM and RFMP processes. Since RFMPs were not yet completed at the time of this writing, this study’s findings are preliminary. Nonetheless, this report provides an indication of the overall functioning of these RFMP and IRWM regions, and some general considerations for DWR as it assesses next steps in supporting these programs.

Regional land subsidence accompanying groundwater extraction

Hydrogeology Journal (Springer) | August 26th, 2011

The extraction of groundwater can generate land subsidence by causing the compaction of susceptible aquifer systems, typically unconsolidated alluvial or basin-fill aquif

The extraction of groundwater can generate land subsidence by causing the compaction of susceptible aquifer systems, typically unconsolidated alluvial or basin-fill aquifer systems comprising aquifers and aquitards. Various ground-based and remotely sensed methods are used to measure and map subsidence. Many areas of subsidence caused by groundwater pumping have been identified and monitored, and corrective measures to slow or halt subsidence have been devised. Two principal means are used to mitigate subsidence caused by groundwater withdrawal—reduction of groundwater withdrawal, and artificial recharge. Analysis and simulation of aquifer-system compaction follow from the basic relations between head, stress, compressibility, and groundwater flow and are addressed primarily using two approaches—one based on conventional groundwater flow theory and one based on linear poroelasticity theory. Research and development to improve the assessment and analysis of aquifer-system compaction, the accompanying subsidence and potential ground ruptures are needed in the topic areas of the hydromechanical behavior of aquitards, the role of horizontal deformation, the application of differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry, and the regional-scale simulation of coupled groundwater flow and aquifer-system deformation to support resource management and hazard mitigation measures.

Rising Seas and Electricity Infrastructure: Potential Impacts and Adaptation Actions for San Diego Gas & Electric

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 31st, 2018

Part A: Rising sea levels pose a threat to California’s energy infrastructure and the coastal communities that it serves. To better understand this threat, this

Part A: Rising sea levels pose a threat to California’s energy infrastructure and the coastal communities that it serves. To better understand this threat, this study analyzed the exposure of San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E) electricity assets in San Diego County to climate change- driven coastal wave flooding, tidal inundation, and coastal erosion. The study found that the greatest potential direct impacts are damage to four substations in the Mission Bay and San Diego Bay areas. By modeling the potential costs to customers from unserved energy due to service disruptions driven by exposed substations, this study found economic impacts could— under an extreme sea level rise scenario in the late 21st century compounded by a 100 year storm-- range from $1.2 billion to $25 billion, assuming no adaptation actions are taken. Nearby communities could also experience indirect impacts if critical customers served by the substations—such as sewage pumping stations, hospitals, airports, and ports—are affected by outages. For other asset types, potential direct impacts are expected in the form of increased maintenance and repair costs. The research team identified a range of potential adaptation measures to build resilience to potential impacts. The application of flexible adaptation pathways emerged through the study as the best approach to improve implementation of these measures in the face of future uncertainty. Rather than selecting adaptation measures based only on what is known today, flexible adaptation pathways help establish information that that should be tracked, termed signposts, to help navigate uncertainty, set thresholds that trigger adaptation actions, and determine if an adaptation plan is meeting its objectives. Using these pathways, four initial climate adaptation actions were identified for SDG&E: 1) enhance coastal storm prediction and response, 2) identify signposts and thresholds that indicate when the need for an adaptation decision is approaching, 3) conduct consultations with regional stakeholders to identify opportunities to improve community-wide resilience, and 4) improve and fine-tune cost-benefit analysis methods to increase accuracy and confidence in cost-benefit estimates that incorporate climate change. Click here for Part B of the report, Potential Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Actions for Gas Assets in the San Diego Gas and Electric Company Service Area, CEC, 2018

Risk-Informed Future Climate Scenario Development for the State Water Project Delivery Capability Report

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 24th, 2023

This report introduces and documents an extensive effort undertaken by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to develop risk-informed future climate scenario

This report introduces and documents an extensive effort undertaken by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to develop risk-informed future climate scenarios for the State Water Project (SWP) Delivery Capability Report (DCR), a report issued by the SWP every two years. These reports present DWR’s analysis of the SWP system and planning information for users of SWP water. The analysis provides information about how climate change, regulatory, and operational considerations affect SWP delivery capability. Specifically, the report must provide “…under a range of hydrologic conditions, the then existing overall delivery capability of the project facilities and the allocation of that capacity to each contractor. The range of hydrologic conditions shall include the historic extended dry cycle and long-term average.” (Settlement Agreement 2003).

Root Causes Analyses of the Oroville Dam Gated Spillway Failures and Other Developments

University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) | July 20th, 2017

We have performed forensic Root Causes Analyses of the Oroville Dam Gated Spillway failures and other associated developments as unfunded (approximately 3,000 pro-bono h

We have performed forensic Root Causes Analyses of the Oroville Dam Gated Spillway failures and other associated developments as unfunded (approximately 3,000 pro-bono hours) volunteers of the University of California at Berkeley (UCB) Center for Catastrophic Risk Management (CCRM) Oroville Dam Advisory Group (ODAG). We initiated this work on January 27, 2017. The results contained in this report have been developed based on the currently available public document and information sources cited at the end of this report, included in the Preliminary Root Causes Analysis of the Failures of the Oroville Dam Gated Spillway report dated April 17, 2017, and in the Legislative Oversight Report: Oroville Dam report dated May 11, 2017.  This report documents our analyses of the Root Causes of the initial failure of the Gated Spillway. Appendix A of this report provides summaries of the procedures and processes we used to perform the Root Causes analyses, background on the components that comprise Engineered Systems, and background on the Human and Organizational Factor malfunctions (errors) responsible for failures of Engineered Systems. Appendix B provides details of our analyses of the Physical and Organizational Root Causes of the initial failure of the Gated Spillway. The opinions expressed in this Report are ours alone. The opinions expressed herein are a fair and accurate summary of our opinions, based upon our experience, education, training, and expertise.

Sacramento River Flood Control Project Weirs and Flood Relief Structures

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | April 8th, 2011

Sacramento Valley has a history of floods and management of floods that goes back as long as people have populated the region. Prior to flood management, the valley floor

Sacramento Valley has a history of floods and management of floods that goes back as long as people have populated the region. Prior to flood management, the valley floor would be blanketed by seasonal runoff nearly every year; the Sacramento Valley was once nicknamed the “inland sea.” This tendency to flood results from the geography of the region as well as the weather. The occasionally large amounts of rain that fall in the surrounding Coastal ranges and the relatively steep Sierra Nevada mountain ranges produce rapid surface water runoff to the Sacramento River. The amount of this surface water runoff can be quite large, depending on the amount of rainfall, snow melt, and soil moisture of the watershed. Fast water flowing from the mountains is blunted by the relatively shallow grade of the Sacramento River south of the city of Red Bluff, and would often overtop the river banks. In addition, The Sacramento River would begin depositing sediment in the more shallow grades that would often alter its direction of flow. In order to control these storm flows that would otherwise flood farmland and cities, the Sacramento River Flood Control Project (the Project) was created. The Project was designed with the understanding that runoff from many of the storm events experienced in the Sacramento River watershed cannot be contained within the banks of the river. Nor could this flow be fully contained within a levee system without periodically flooding adjacent property. Thus, the Project was designed to occasionally spill through a system of weirs and flood relief structures into adjacent basins. These basins are designed to contain flood waters and channel them downstream, to eventually be conveyed back into the Sacramento River near Knights Landing and Rio Vista. Dry weather flows are contained within levees near the river banks and land within the flood basins is then used for agricultural purposes.

San Diego County Ecosystems: Ecological Impacts of Climate Change on a Biodiversity Hotspot

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 27th, 2018

The diverse ecosystems, habitats, plants, and animals in the San Diego County region will be impacted by climatic shifts in multifold ways due to current and future vari

The diverse ecosystems, habitats, plants, and animals in the San Diego County region will be impacted by climatic shifts in multifold ways due to current and future variability, along with other factors including habitat loss and fragmentation, land use shifts, and changing fire regimes. While home to a major metropolitan area, San Diego County still hosts expanses of native and preserved habitats where management and conservation action could be greatly enhanced through science-based assessments and planning for climate change and increased climate variability. Projections of climate change in the region include warming by 4-9° F on average, and a 15-25% decrease in fall and spring precipitation with an increase in variability resulting in more frequent and intense droughts punctuated by increasingly rare yet extreme precipitation and flooding events. In addition, an increase in fire events and potential lessening of coastal marine influence may also affect San Diego’s ecosystems. Climate warming superimposed upon the pronounced spatially-varying temperature in the San Diego region will likely be associated with range shifts for many species resulting in novel community assemblages and biotic interactions and could create phenological mismatches. More frequent and intense heat waves may disproportionately affect younger age classes and reduce reproductive and survival rates of species sensitive to temperature extremes. With increasingly variable precipitation, drought may occur more frequently due to increased occurrence of dry days and could intensify because of warmer temperatures. Since drought disproportionately affects some species, these projected changes may cause structural changes to ecosystems. Santa Ana winds, occurring during increasingly dry fall months, would create ideal fire conditions. Coastal low clouds and fog along San Diego’s coast buffer this zone from the effects of warming and drying through shading and cooling. Although these marine stratus clouds will remain a presence, future changes in this phenomenon are uncertain. The spatial and temporal scales at which climate variations and change operate must be considered to build resilience into natural systems. Effective conservation actions will need to build on ongoing efforts focused on landscape-scale planning rather than more traditional single-species approaches. To carry this out will require cross-jurisdictional, multidisciplinary collaboration by scientists, policy-makers, planners, land managers, and the broader conservation community, which has a decades-long history of accomplishment in San Diego County.

Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study for the City of Los Angeles

University of Southern California Sea Grant Program | December 31st, 2013

Climate change is expected to usher in an era of higher temperatures, increased precipitation and/or severe drought, and increased rates of sea level rise around

Climate change is expected to usher in an era of higher temperatures, increased precipitation and/or severe drought, and increased rates of sea level rise around the world. According to the National Research Council (NRC), global sea level has risen at an increasing rate since the late 19th / early 20th Century, when global temperatures first started to rise. Climate researchers believe sea level rise will drive storm surge and wave run-up higher than current conditions, thereby causing more extensive and frequent coastal, storm-driven flooding. Sea level rise in Los Angeles is expected to match global projections over the next century with anincrease of 0.1 - 0.6 meters (m), or 0.3 - 2.0 feet (ft), from 2000 - 2050 and 0.4 - 1.7 m (or 1.3 - 5.6 ft) from 2000 - 2100 (NRC 2012). Tides, wave-driven run-up, and storm surge play critical roles in coastal flooding in Southern California, especially when big wave storms occur at or near peak high tides. Sea level rise will potentially exacerbate the damage from these events.