Risk-Informed Future Climate Scenario Development for the State Water Project Delivery Capability Report
Andrew Schwarz, Erik Reyes, Nazrul Islam, Raymond Hoang, Richard Chen, Nicole Osorio, Yiwei Cheng, Mohammad Hasan, Malinda Wimalaratne, Jay Wang, Zachary Roy, Wyatt Arnold, Alejandro Perez, Romain Maendly, Jeff Weaver, Thomas Fitzhugh, Chakri Malakpet, Drew Loney, Kevin Thielen | August 24th, 2023
This report introduces and documents an extensive effort undertaken by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to develop risk-informed future climate scenarios for the State Water Project (SWP) Delivery Capability Report (DCR), a report issued by the SWP every two years. These reports present DWR’s analysis of the SWP system and planning information for users of SWP water. The analysis provides information about how climate change, regulatory, and operational considerations affect SWP delivery capability. Specifically, the report must provide “…under a range of hydrologic conditions, the then existing overall delivery capability of the project facilities and the allocation of that capacity to each contractor. The range of hydrologic conditions shall include the historic extended dry cycle and long-term average.” (Settlement Agreement 2003).
Keywords
climate change, modeling, planning and management, risk assessment, Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, State Water Project (SWP), water supply forecasting