Asymmetric emergence of low-to-no snow in the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 14th, 2022

Societies and ecosystems within and downstream of mountains rely on seasonal snowmelt to satisfy their water demands. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced mountain sn

Societies and ecosystems within and downstream of mountains rely on seasonal snowmelt to satisfy their water demands. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced mountain snowpacks worldwide, altering snowmelt magnitude and timing. Here the global warming level leading to widespread and persistent mountain snowpack decline, termed low-to-no snow, is estimated for the world’s most latitudinally contiguous mountain range, the American Cordillera. We show that a combination of dynamical, thermodynamical and hypsometric factors results in an asymmetric emergence of low-to-no-snow conditions within the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera. Low-to-no-snow emergence occurs approximately 20 years earlier in the southern hemisphere, at a third of the local warming level, and coincides with runoff efficiency declines (8% average) in both dry and wet years. The prevention of a low-to-no-snow future in either hemisphere requires the level of global warming to be held to, at most, +2.5 °C.

At Risk: Public Supply Well Vulnerability Under California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act

Pacific Institute | June 1st, 2021

Atlantic-Pacific influence on western U.S. hydroclimate and water resources

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 11th, 2023

Atmospheric rivers cause warm winters and extreme heat events

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 18th, 2024

Click here for a plain language summary and interview with the authors by Yale News.

Click here for a plain language summary and interview with the authors by Yale News.

Atmospheric Rivers Impacting Northern California Exhibit a Quasi-Decadal Frequency

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 26th, 2021

In Northern California, much of the precipitation and surface water comes from atmospheric rivers–corridors of moisture transport from the tropics. The frequency of atm

In Northern California, much of the precipitation and surface water comes from atmospheric rivers–corridors of moisture transport from the tropics. The frequency of atmospheric rivers is cyclical, with periods of water surplus and deficit in the region that repeat every 10–17 years. While many social and political factors influence water resource distribution, understanding the climate factors that regulate water availability is important for managing water in the future. Using data from observations and modeling experiments, the pronounced wet/dry cycle in this area of the Western United States is mainly attributed to regular fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This analysis provides a potential source of predictability for atmospheric river frequency, and thus water availability, years before a winter season.

Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multi-model, global evaluation

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 1st, 2017

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play importantroles in the global water cycle and meteorological/hydrological extremes.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play importantroles in the global water cycle and meteorological/hydrological extremes. Increasing evidence shows that ARs have signatures and impacts in many regions across different continents. However, global-scalecharacterizations of AR representations in weather and climate models have been very limited. Using a recently developed AR detection algorithm oriented for global applications, the representation of AR activities in multi-decade weather/climate simulations is evaluated. The algorithm is applied to 6-hourly(daily) integrated water vapor transport (IVT) from 22 (2) global weather/climate models that participated inthe Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study–Year of Tropical Convection Multimodel Experiment, including four models with ocean-atmosphere coupling and two models with super parameterization. Multiple reanalysis products are used as references to help quantify model errors inthe context of reanalysis uncertainty. Model performance is examined for key aspects of ARs (frequency,intensity, geometry, and seasonality), with the focus on identifying and understanding systematic errors insimulated ARs. The results highlight the range of model performances relative to reanalysis uncertainty inrepresenting the most basic features of ARs. Among the 17 metrics considered, AR frequency, zonal IVT, fractional zonal circumference, fractional total meridional IVT, and three seasonality metrics have consistently large errors across all models. Possible connections between AR simulation qualities and aspects of model configurations are discussed. Despite the lack of a monotonic relationship, the importance of model horizontal resolution to the overall quality of AR simulation is suggested by the evaluation results.

August 2025 Probable Maximum 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 15th, 2025

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DR

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA), Reclamation has conducted additional model runs in August to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. The Probable Minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90% of the time. The Most Probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50% of the time. The Probable Maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10% of the time. There is approximately an 80% probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Related scenarios: August 2025 Most Probable 24-Month Study August 2025 Probable Minimum 24-Month Study

August 2025 Probable Minimum 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 15th, 2025

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DR

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA), Reclamation has conducted additional model runs in August to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. The Probable Minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90% of the time. The Most Probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50% of the time. The Probable Maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10% of the time. There is approximately an 80% probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Related scenarios: August 2025 Most Probable 24-Month Study August 2025 Probable Maximum 24-Month Study  

Base of fresh ground water (approximately 3,000 micromhos) in the San Joaquin Valley, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | June 30th, 1971

Widespread pumping of groundwater in the San Joaquin Valley began about 1900, and since 1940 pumpage has increased at an accelerated rate. In response to the heavy withdr

Widespread pumping of groundwater in the San Joaquin Valley began about 1900, and since 1940 pumpage has increased at an accelerated rate. In response to the heavy withdrawal of groundwater, water levels have declined rapidly beneath extensive areas of the valley. Consequently, it becomes necessary to delineate the base of fresh groundwater so that changes in thickness of the fresh-water zone can be monitored, and limited depths of water wells can be determined. In turn, those data will be useful in determining favorable areas for groundwater storage, and areas and depths for waste-water disposal wells. Because other agencies and the U.S. Geological Survey have collected a vast amount of well log and other data, most of the information in this report was assembled from existing files. However, for areas where data were scanty, a few hundred additional electrical logs were collected to supplement the available information.

Better late than never: a synthesis of strategic land retirement and restoration in California

Ecological Society of America (Wiley) | August 10th, 2018

Strategic retirement and restoration of agricultural lands is a critical conservation opportunity globally. The objective of this synthesis was to examine whether ecolog

Strategic retirement and restoration of agricultural lands is a critical conservation opportunity globally. The objective of this synthesis was to examine whether ecological habitat assessments, endangered species historical occurrence data, and restoration research can be used to develop evidence-based strategy for retiring and restoring agricultural lands. The San Joaquin Desert (SJD) of California is a prominent example because it experienced an extensive conversion to agriculture. Now, new groundwater regulations will lead to retirement on large areas of agricultural lands over the next 20 years. This presents an opportunity to not only restore some of these lands but also explore the challenges associated with balancing direct human needs with other ecosystem-level functions. California is thus an ideal case study for globally rethinking context-specific, single-case study solutions. We used a systematic review and synthesis to address the following three main questions for habitat recovery of endangered species in the SJD. (1) What are the habitat requirements for key endangered animal species in the region? (2) Is there historical evidence to support an assessment of suitable habitats for these species? (3) What restoration techniques apply to these species? Using the Web of Science and other resources, we reviewed over 1000 independent studies on this topic, refined the evidence, and selected a total of 266 relevant publications. Habitat requirements for each species were described, but there was a critical need to examine quantitative thresholds for these factors to better evaluate habitat suitability of retired lands. There was sufficient evidence of historical vegetation to model suitable habitats and design the physical restoration of retired lands. Direct interventions associated with restoration strategies have been infrequently tested. Sparse and diverse evidence associated with direct experimental manipulations is not uncommon in applied ecology, and synthesis is an excellent tool for highlighting these gaps for future research to examine. This review suggests that retired agricultural land is a viable asset for threatened and endangered species, but to effectively advance restoration research and management, direct tests of restoration techniques and an assessment of relative costs for interventions are needed for a given region.