Water shortage risks from perennial crop expansion in California's Central Valley

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | October 15th, 2019

California's Central Valley is one of the world's most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on surface water imports from

California's Central Valley is one of the world's most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on surface water imports from a vast network of reservoirs and canals as well as groundwater, which has been substantially overdrafted to support irrigation. The region has undergone a shift to perennial (tree and vine) crops in recent decades, which has increased water demand amid a series of severe droughts and emerging regulations on groundwater pumping. This study quantifies the expansion of perennial crops in the Tulare Lake Basin, the southern region of the Central Valley with limited natural water availability. A gridded crop type dataset is compiled on a 1 mi2 spatial resolution from a historical database of pesticide permits over the period 1974–2016 and validated against aggregated county-level data. This spatial dataset is then analyzed by irrigation district, the primary spatial scale at which surface water supplies are determined, to identify trends in planting decisions and agricultural water demand over time. Perennial crop acreage has nearly tripled over this period, and currently accounts for roughly 60% of planted area and 80% of annual revenue. These trends show little relationship with water availability and have been driven primarily by market demand. From this data, we focus on the increasing minimum irrigation needs each year to sustain perennial crops. Results indicate that under a range of plausible future regulations on groundwater pumping ranging from 10% to 50%, water supplies may fail to consistently meet demands, increasing losses by up to 30% of annual revenues. More broadly, the datasets developed in this work will support the development of dynamic models of the integrated water-agriculture system under uncertain climate and regulatory changes to understand the combined impacts of water supply shortages and intensifying irrigation demand.

Water shortage risks from perennial crop expansion in California’s Central Valley

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | October 15th, 2019

California’s Central Valley is one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on surface water imports

California’s Central Valley is one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on surface water imports from a vast network of reservoirs and canals as well as groundwater, which has been substantially overdrafted to support irrigation. The region has undergone a shift to perennial (tree and vine) crops in recent decades, which has increased water demand amid a series of severe droughts and emerging regulations on groundwater pumping. This study quantifies the expansion of perennial crops in the Tulare Lake Basin, the southern region of the Central Valley with limited natural water availability. A gridded crop type dataset is compiled on a 1-square mile spatial resolution from a historical database of pesticide permits over the period 1974–2016 and validated against aggregated county-level data. This spatial dataset is then analyzed by irrigation district, the primary spatial scale at which surface water supplies are determined, to identify trends in planting decisions and agricultural water demand over time. Perennial crop acreage has nearly tripled over this period, and currently accounts for roughly 60% of planted area and 80% of annual revenue. These trends show little relationship with water availability and have been driven primarily by market demand. From this data, we focus on the increasing minimum irrigation needs each year to sustain perennial crops. Results indicate that under a range of plausible future regulations on groundwater pumping ranging from 10% to 50%, water supplies may fail to consistently meet demands, increasing losses by up to 30% of annual revenues. More broadly, the datasets developed in this work will support the development of dynamic models of the integrated water-agriculture system under uncertain climate and regulatory changes to understand the combined impacts of water supply shortages and intensifying irrigation demand.

Water shortages worsened by reservoir effects

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 13th, 2018

The expansion of reservoirs to cope with droughts and water shortages is hotly debated in many places around the world. We argue that there are two counterintuiti

The expansion of reservoirs to cope with droughts and water shortages is hotly debated in many places around the world. We argue that there are two counterintuitive dynamics that should be considered in this debate: supply–demand cycles and reservoir effects. Supply–demand cycles describe instances where increasing water supply enables higher water demand, which can quickly offset the initial benefits of reservoirs. Reservoir effects refer to cases where over-reliance on reservoirs increases vulnerability, and therefore increases the potential damage caused by droughts. Here we illustrate these counterintuitive dynamics with global and local examples, and discuss policy and research implications.

Water Stress and a Changing San Joaquin Valley

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | March 1st, 2017

The San Joaquin Valley—California’s largest agricultural region, and an important contributor to the nation’s food supply—is in a time of great change and growing

The San Joaquin Valley—California’s largest agricultural region, and an important contributor to the nation’s food supply—is in a time of great change and growing water stress. Agriculture is a leading economic driver and the predominant water user. The region’s farms and related manufacturing businesses account for 25 percent of the valley’s revenues and 16 percent of local jobs—and 89 percent of annual net water use. The latest drought underscored valley agriculture’s vulnerability to water scarcity and long-term declines in groundwater reserves. The region has a greater abundance of productive farmland than local water supplies for irrigation. In most years since the mid-1980s, groundwater has been used faster than it is being replenished (“groundwater overdraft”). Over the past three decades, overdraft has averaged nearly 2 million acre-feet per year, or 13 percent of net water use. This has contributed to increased pumping costs, dry wells, sinking lands, and declining reliability of this vital drought reserve.

Water Supply Conditions in Southern California during 1958-1959, Volume II, Water Level Data, Central Coastal and Los Angeles Regions

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | May 1st, 1961

Water Surplus and Drought Management Update - Conditions as of 11/29/2022

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) | December 13th, 2022

Water Use in California

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | April 19th, 2023

Water Wasted to the Sea?

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 15th, 2017

Water Year 2017: What a Difference a Year Makes

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 3rd, 2022

The very wet conditions of 2017 gave many parts of the state access to excess surface waters for both planned and impromptu groundwater recharge, and fall 2017 groundwate

The very wet conditions of 2017 gave many parts of the state access to excess surface waters for both planned and impromptu groundwater recharge, and fall 2017 groundwater level data (not available until the end of the calendar year) should show the effects of the substantial recharge water available

Water Year 2021 Compound Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in California and Nevada

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 23rd, 2022

The most intense 22-yr drought in the western United States since 800 CE (Williams et al. 2022) was extended by compound dry and hot extremes in Water Year 2021 (October

The most intense 22-yr drought in the western United States since 800 CE (Williams et al. 2022) was extended by compound dry and hot extremes in Water Year 2021 (October 2020–September 2021). Compared to an instrumental record that dates to 1895, low precipitation (Fig. 1a) and high temperatures (Fig. 1b) were widespread across the western United States. The intense and prevalent drought has caused water delivery shortages (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 2021), damaged ecosystems (Wlostowski et al. 2022), and contributed to extreme wildfires (e.g., Fu et al. 2021; Gutierrez et al. 2021; Abolafia-Rosenzweig et al. 2022). California and Nevada (CA–NV) were once again at the epicenter of drought and heat in Water Year 2021 (California Department of Water Resources 2021). This was the first time since 1895 that precipitation fell below –1.5 standardized departures and temperatures exceeded 1.5 standardized departures concurrently for the two-state average (Fig. 1c). Precipitation and temperatures were individually extreme as well, as the former was the second lowest since 1895 and the latter was the second highest. We examine whether the co-occurrence of anthropogenic climate change and La Niña, two principal climate drivers during Water Year 2021, altered the risk of unprecedented compound dry and hot extremes in CA–NV during Water Year 2021. Our assessment investigates the factors related to compound extremes that lead to heightened societal impacts compared to individual extreme events (e.g., AghaKouchak et al. 2020; Zscheischler et al. 2020; W. Zhang et al. 2021).