Estimates of Natural and Unimpaired Flows for the Central Valley of California: Water Years 1922-2014 (draft)

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 1st, 2016

Estimating regional water supplies that would have occurred absent human activities is a common practice in water resources planning. In this report, such theor

Estimating regional water supplies that would have occurred absent human activities is a common practice in water resources planning. In this report, such theoretical water supply estimates are referred to as “unimpaired” flow. Since 1980, the Department of Water Resources (Department) has periodically published estimates of Central Valley unimpaired flows. In spite of the Department’s previous attempts to distinguish between natural conditions and its calcula tion of theoretical unimpaired flows, unimpaired flow estimates have frequently been used as a surrogate measure of natural conditions, presumably because natural flow estimates were unavailable. A major objective of this report is to clarify the conceptua l differences between natural and unimpaired flows. In this report, the term “unimpaired” flow is used to describe a theoretically available water supply assuming existing river channel conditions in the absence of (1) storage regulation for water supply a nd hydropower purposes and (2) stream diversions for agricultural and municipal uses. Unimpaired flow estimates are theoretical in that such conditions have not occurred historically. In pristine watersheds which have undergone little land use change, unim paired flow estimates provide a fixed frame of reference to develop relationships between precipitation, runoff, and water supply based on long - term hydrologic records. For many years these relationships were based on the assumption of stationarity, i.e. that the past is a good indicator of the future. However, global warming now requires hydrologists and water resources managers to analyze non-stationary processes, requiring more sophisticated tools and techniques to quantify future water supplies. This report updates and extends the Department’s previous published estimates of unimpaired flows for 24 Central Valley sub-basins and the Delta. Monthly unimpaired flows are presented for water years 1922 - 2014.

Estimating evapotranspiration change due to forest treatment and fire at the basin scale in the Sierra Nevada, California: Forest Disturbance and Evapotranspiration Change

Ecohydrology (Wiley) | April 6th, 2018

We investigated the potential magnitude and duration of forest evapotranspiration (ET) decreases resulting from forest‐thinning treatments and wildfire in west‐slope

We investigated the potential magnitude and duration of forest evapotranspiration (ET) decreases resulting from forest‐thinning treatments and wildfire in west‐slope watersheds of the Sierra Nevada range in California, USA, using a robust empirical relation between Landsat‐derived mean‐annual normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ET measured at flux towers. Among forest treatments, the minimum observed NDVI change required to produce a significant departure from control plots with NDVI of about 0.70 was −0.09 units, corresponding to a basal‐area reduction of 29.1 m2/ha (45% reduction) and equivalent to an estimated ET reduction of 153 mm/year (21% change; approximate mean annual precipitation = 1,000 mm). Intensive thinning in highly productive forests that approached prefire‐exclusion densities reduced basal area by 40–50%, generating estimated ET reductions of 153–218 mm/year (21–27% change) over 5 years following treatment. Low‐intensity underburn treatments resulted in no significant change in ET. Examining the cumulative impact of wildfires on ET between 1990 and 2008, we found that the lower and wetter American River basin (5,310 km2) generated more than twice the ET reduction per unit area than those in the higher and drier Kings River basin (4,790 km2), corresponding to greater water and energy limitations in the latter and greater fire severity in the former. A rough extrapolation of these results to the entire American River watershed suggests that ET reductions due to forest thinning by wildfire could approach 10% of full natural flows for dry years and 5% over all years.

Evaluating Collaborative Institutions in Context: The Case of Regional Water Management in Southern California

Sage Journals | January 1st, 2014

Regional collaborative institutions are seen as tools for improving collaboration and for reducing the inefficiency of fragmented management and planning. However, recent

Regional collaborative institutions are seen as tools for improving collaboration and for reducing the inefficiency of fragmented management and planning. However, recent research has shown that the ability of new regional institutions to achieve these aims is contingent upon their relationship to the existing institutional landscape. This paper uses network analyses of six newly created Integrated Regional Water Management (IRWM) subregions in southern California to examine how their introduction intersects existing water management systems and whether the patterns of interaction in water planning have changed as a result. The results further our understanding of collaborative governance and regionalism by showing that the ability of regional institutions to facilitate new interactions can vary widely across a given institutional landscape. Further, while IRWM has helped to strengthen the water management network in southern California, it has not replaced existing watershed planning efforts. Interviews with water managers reveal there is support for IRWM but it is still too early to evaluate its effectiveness. Further research should explore the drivers and consequences of heterogeneity in IRWM and whether the incentives for participation are sufficient.

Evaluating GFS and ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Integrated Water Vapor Transport along the U.S. West Coast

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | October 28th, 2022

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow regions in the atmosphere of enhanced integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and can produce extreme precipitation and high s

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow regions in the atmosphere of enhanced integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and can produce extreme precipitation and high societal impacts. Reliable and skillful forecasts of landfalling ARs in the western United States are critical to hazard preparation and aid in decision support activities, such as Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO). The purpose of this study is to compare the cool-season water year skill of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) forecasts of IVT along the U.S. West Coast for 2017–20. The skill is analyzed using probability-over-threshold forecasts of IVT magnitudes ≥ 250 kg m−1 s−1 (P250) using contingency table skill metrics in coastal Northern California and along the west coast of North America. Analysis of P250 with lead time (dProg/dt) found that the EPS provided ∼1 day of additional lead time for situational awareness over the GEFS at lead times of 6–10 days. Forecast skill analysis highlights that the EPS leads over the GEFS with success ratios 0.10–0.15 higher at lead times > 6 days for P250 thresholds of ≥25% and ≥50%, while event-based skill analysis using the probability of detection (POD) found that both models were largely similar with minor latitudinal variations favoring higher POD for each model in different locations along the coast. The relative skill of the EPS over the GEFS is largely attributed to overforecasting by the GEFS at longer lead times and an increase in the false alarm ratio.

Evaluating the Accuracy of Reclamation’s 24-Month Study Lake Powell Projections

Utah State University | February 18th, 2022

The bias for inflow predictions will likely be reduced now that the reference period includes a more recent, and somewhat drier, span of time, but projections of future i

The bias for inflow predictions will likely be reduced now that the reference period includes a more recent, and somewhat drier, span of time, but projections of future inflows are likely to remain biased, because the hydrology of the 1991-2020 reference period was still wetter than the current Millennium Drought.

Evaluation of Geohydrologic Framework, Recharge Estimates, and Ground-Water Flow of the Joshua Tree Area, San Bernardino County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 2004

Evaluation of Non-hydrostatic Simulations of Northeast Pacific Atmospheric Rivers and Comparison to In-situ Observations

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | August 31st, 2015

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of concentrated atmospheric water vapor transport that provide an important atmospheric linkage between the subtropics and the m

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of concentrated atmospheric water vapor transport that provide an important atmospheric linkage between the subtropics and the midlatitudes, facilitating over 90% of meridional water vapor flux and often resulting in extreme precipitation events in regions of enhanced coastal orography. In this investigation, the authors conduct continuous (3 month), large-domain (3600 km × 3200 km), high-resolution (4 km), nonhydrostatic simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and compare the observations to previously reported dropsonde observations from the California Land-Falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) and the Pacific Land-Falling Jets Experiment (PACJET) in order to address an existing gap in knowledge regarding the ability of atmospheric models to simulate the finescale vertical and horizontal structure of atmospheric rivers. The WRF simulations reproduce key structural and thermodynamic characteristics of atmospheric rivers—including well-defined corridors of strong water vapor transport, moist-neutral stability in the lower troposphere, and strong low-level jet/water vapor transport maxima near ~1 km MSL. While WRF does generally capture the extreme values of instantaneous vertically integrated water transport—a defining feature of real-world atmospheric rivers—constituent variables exhibit biases relative to observations, including −11.2% for integrated vapor transport, +5.9% for integrated water vapor, and −17.7% for 1 km MSL wind speed. Findings suggest that high-resolution nonhydrostatic atmospheric simulations are an appropriate tool for investigating atmospheric rivers in contexts where finescale spatial structure and realistic water vapor transport maxima are important.

Evaluation of the Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Floods Associated with Atmospheric Rivers in Coastal Western U.S. Watersheds

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | May 27th, 2021

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month) is a critical lead time for proactive mitigation of flood disasters. The NOAA Climate Testbed Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a research-to-operations project with almost immediate availability of forecasts. It has produced a reforecast database that facilitates evaluation of flood forecasts at these subseasonal lead times. Here, we examine the SubX-driven forecast skill of AR-related flooding out to 4-week lead using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), with particular attention to the role of antecedent soil moisture (ASM), which modulates the relationship between meteorological and hydrological forecast skill. We study three watersheds along a transect of the U.S. West Coast: the Chehalis River basin in Washington, the Russian River basin in Northern California, and the Santa Margarita River basin in Southern California. We find that the SubX-driven flood forecast skill drops quickly after week 1, during which there is relatively high deterministic forecast skill. We find some probabilistic forecast skill relative to climatology as well as ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) in week 2, but minimal skill in weeks 3–4, especially for annual maximum floods, notwithstanding some probabilistic skill for smaller floods in week 3. Using ESP and reverse-ESP experiments to consider the relative influence of ASM and SubX reforecast skill, we find that ASM dominates probabilistic forecast skill only for small flood events at week 1, while SubX reforecast skill dominates for large flood events at all lead times.

Evolution of global snow drought characteristics from 1850 to 2100

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | June 6th, 2023

Executive Order N-10-19

State of California | April 29th, 2019