Water Demand Projection Accuracy and Demand Management Trends in California Cities

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 21st, 2025

This study investigates the accuracy of long-term water demand projections and tracks the evolution of water demand management incentives across 61 California water suppl

This study investigates the accuracy of long-term water demand projections and tracks the evolution of water demand management incentives across 61 California water suppliers from 2000 to 2020. Through a systematic analysis of Urban Water Management Plans, we find that water suppliers consistently overestimated future demand by an average of 25% for 5-year projections and 74% for 20-year projections. This overestimation stems primarily from assumptions about per capita water demand rather than population growth estimates. While suppliers generally projected stable or increasing per capita demand, actual water demand per capita declined by 1.9% annually between 2000 and 2020, leading to a decoupling of water demand from population growth. Concurrently, we document a substantial increase in water demand management incentives, with non-voluntary regulations emerging as the dominant demand management approach by 2020, largely driven by state policies like the Model Water Efficient Landscape Ordinance and California Green Building Standards. Demand management efforts have evolved from primarily indoor and educational initiatives toward outdoor-focused non-voluntary regulations and rebates. This shift appears closely linked to the reduction in per capita demand that suppliers failed to fully capture in their water demand projections. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating dynamic conservation trends into demand projections and suggest that suppliers should develop more sophisticated forecasting methods that account for the continuing evolution of water efficiency incentives. This research provides valuable insights for water resource planners seeking to improve the accuracy of water demand projections in an era of increasing conservation and climate uncertainty.

Water Features of the Smith River Plain, Del Norte County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 1st, 1957

Water for a Growing Bay Area: How the region can grow without increasing water demand

Pacific Institute | October 21st, 2021

The San Francisco Bay Area is at a crossroads. The region, blessed with a beautiful natural setting, multiple shipping ports and world-class universities, is a driver of

The San Francisco Bay Area is at a crossroads. The region, blessed with a beautiful natural setting, multiple shipping ports and world-class universities, is a driver of global economic growth. But the region’s housing supply has not kept up with population growth. Many low-income households, disproportionately made up of people of color, have been forced into overcrowded and substandard housing or displaced from the urban center to new neighborhoods far from their jobs, friends and families. The most vulnerable have lost their homes entirely and are among the region’s 35,000 unhoused people. Over the next half-century, the Bay Area’s need to add housing will only grow more intense. The region is projected to add 2 million new jobs by 2070, which would attract as many as 6.8 million people, and needs to build at least 2.2 million new housing units just to prevent housing affordability from worsening. This represents 83% more people, 74% more housing units and 38% more jobs over the next 50 years.

Water for Growth: California’s New Frontier

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | July 25th, 2005

California’s population is expected to add another 14 million people by 2030, reaching a total of 48 million. One of the most serious concerns of policymakers is wh

California’s population is expected to add another 14 million people by 2030, reaching a total of 48 million. One of the most serious concerns of policymakers is whether the state will be able to supply the water needed to sustain such a population. Although many large water projects in the past were undertaken with state and federal leadership, most current options are local or regional in scope. The frontline agencies responsible for water supply are the hundreds of municipal utilities serving the state’s residential and commercial customers. In this report, the author examines how well California is faring in meeting the water supply challenges of growth throughout the state and the extent to which local governments are integrating water supply concerns into their land-use planning. The report also evaluates progress in implementing the new “show me the water” laws, SB 610 and SB 221, which require up-front screening of water availability for large development projects.

Water Forward 2024 Plan Report - Austin's 100 Year Plan

City of Austin | December 6th, 2024

Water Forward 2024 is Austin’s 100-year integrated water resource plan. The purpose of Water Forward is to develop and implement diverse and environmentally conscious w

Water Forward 2024 is Austin’s 100-year integrated water resource plan. The purpose of Water Forward is to develop and implement diverse and environmentally conscious water management strategies to adapt to growth, drought, and climate change and ensure a sustainable, resilient, equitable, and affordable water future for our community for the next 100 years. Austin Water has developed this plan to address near- and long-term water needs through a collaborative process in alignment with guiding principles crafted to reflect the Austin community’s values. 

Water from the Colorado River

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) | July 1st, 1931

It is the purpose of this booklet to outline the Boulder Canyon Dam project on the Colorado River and the Metropolitan Aqueduct. Furthermore, it seems pertinent to indica

It is the purpose of this booklet to outline the Boulder Canyon Dam project on the Colorado River and the Metropolitan Aqueduct. Furthermore, it seems pertinent to indicate the extent of the population, industrial and agricultural resources of the Metropolitan area, which stand behind and urgently require Colorado River development.

Water Recommendations to the Next President

Pacific Institute | September 14th, 2020

The United States faces several severe and worsening water problems. Continuing to neglect these problems will impoverish and sicken this and future generations,

The United States faces several severe and worsening water problems. Continuing to neglect these problems will impoverish and sicken this and future generations, destroy beneficial aquatic ecosystems, and threaten our economy and food supply. Smart water policies will create hundreds of thousands of jobs, improve public health, and speed our economic recovery. In this letter, we offer a short assessment of four key problems and specific recommendations for addressing them.

Water Reliability in the West - 2021 SECURE Water Act Report

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | January 4th, 2021

The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) is the largest wholesaler of water in the country. Reclamation delivers water for municipal, agricultural, tribal, and environment

The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) is the largest wholesaler of water in the country. Reclamation delivers water for municipal, agricultural, tribal, and environmental water uses, including providing one out of five farmers in the Western United States (West) with irrigation water for 10 million acres of farmland that produce 60 percent of the Nation’s vegetables and 25 percent of its fruits and nuts. The Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), Subtitle F of Title IX of the Act (Science and Engineering to Comprehensively Understand and Responsibly Enhance [SECURE] Water Act) recognizes that changes to temperature, precipitation (rainfall and snowfall), and the timing and quantity of snowpack and runoff pose a significant challenge to the protection and use of water resources. Every 5 years, Reclamation submits a report to Congress under the SECURE Water Act that analyzes projected risks to water supplies in the West using the best available science and highlights collaborative efforts to mitigate those risks. This Water Reliability in the West - 2021 SECURE Water Act Report (2021 Report) provides a West-wide assessment of expected changes to water supplies, uses, and demands; highlights progress; and describes actions taken to increase water supply reliability since the 2016 SECURE Water Act Report. Reclamation has a broad range of programs and projects that help increase the reliability of water and power deliveries. Our activities include science and research, planning, infrastructure sustainability, efficient hydropower production, and on-the-ground actions to increase reliable water supplies to meet water demands. These activities are undertaken in collaboration with our customers, stakeholders, and partners. In the West, competing demands for water for farms, cities, Tribes, the environment, recreation, hydropower, and other uses can lead to conflict. Conflict escalates particularly during droughts, which are expected to be more frequent and severe with climate change. Fostering strong relationships is essential to carry out Reclamation’s everyday operations, conduct long-term planning efforts, and avoid unnecessary conflicts. Reclamation operators and planners rely on information about precipitation, snowpack, streamflow, temperatures, water demands, and groundwater to make informed decisions. Reclamation’s 2021 West-Wide Climate and Hydrology Assessment (2021 Assessment) builds on our 2011 and 2016 West-wide assessments of future temperature and precipitation change by using several complementary approaches, including analyses based in paleohydrology derived from tree rings (dendochronology) that help answer this question: “If droughts in the distant past were to occur today, how would water systems perform?” With our Federal, State, Tribal, and local partners, we address challenges resulting from climate change and shifting demographics. We use a multi-faceted approach to support reliable water and hydropower deliveries; to help maintain healthy ecosystems; to protect federally-listed fish, wildlife, and plants, as well as designated critical habitat; and to manage risks (e.g., droughts, floods, and fires). Implementing the SECURE Water Act has served as a catalyst for collaboration and innovation, improving our understanding of climate change impacts to water resources and our ability to address those impacts.

Water Resilience Assessment Framework

Pacific Institute | August 24th, 2021

A traditional saying in China is that the water that holds the boat afloat is the same that sinks it. In the context of climate change, water is both a threat and a solu

A traditional saying in China is that the water that holds the boat afloat is the same that sinks it. In the context of climate change, water is both a threat and a solution for most climate impacts. Climate change is driving many types of water challenges, such as water scarcity and abundance, worsening water quality, and shifts in timing of the hydrologic cycle. Shocks and stresses, both predictable and unforeseen, affect the resilience of water systems and the stakeholders that rely on them. Specific guidance on how to understand system resilience and measure systematic changes and intervening actions can ensure a more resilient future for all. The Water Resilience Assessment Framework (WRAF) is intended to inform resilient decision-making to avoid shocks and stresses from becoming crises. The WRAF emphasizes water resilience, not only because water is vital for life, but also because water is embedded in nearly every aspect of our daily lives and the systems that enable and fuel our economies—often in ways we cannot see and do not regularly think about. As such, the WRAF is a method to be used, either individually or collectively, along with existing water-management processes and approaches to gain insight into how we measure progress towards building long-term water resilience.  

Water Resource Modeling of the Colorado River: Present and Future Strategies

Utah State University | August 21st, 2019

The CRSS is imprecisely configured to address water supply and environmental management issues within many large tributaries of the headwater branches, including the Colo

The CRSS is imprecisely configured to address water supply and environmental management issues within many large tributaries of the headwater branches, including the Colorado River upstream from Glenwood Springs, the Yampa River upstream from Maybell, the Little Snake River upstream from Lily, the Dolores River, the Duchesne River watershed, the White River upstream from Watson, the Animas River, the Little Colorado River watershed, the Virgin River watershed, and other tributaries in the Lower Basin. Today, river management programs, endangered fish recovery programs, and some Native American tribes are focusing on these tributaries. It is important for stakeholders to understand that the CRSS is most appropriate for addressing basin-wide issues but is not designed to address issues within these tributaries. Expanding the spatial resolution of the CRSS to do so will require significant effort.