The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 17th, 2022

Southern California is a biodiversity hotspot and home to over 23 million people. Over recent decades the annual wildfire area in the coastal southern California region h

Southern California is a biodiversity hotspot and home to over 23 million people. Over recent decades the annual wildfire area in the coastal southern California region has not significantly changed. Yet how fire regime will respond to future anthropogenic climate change remains an important question. Here, we estimate wildfire probability in southern California at station scale and daily resolution using random forest algorithms and downscaled earth system model simulations. We project that large fire days will increase from 36 days/year during 1970–1999 to 58 days/year under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP4.5) and 71 days/year by 2070–2099 under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The large fire season will be more intense and have an earlier onset and delayed end. Our findings suggest that despite the lack of a contemporary trend in fire regime, projected greenhouse gas emissions will substantially increase the fire danger in southern California by 2099.

The State of the Sierra Nevada’s Forests

Sierra Nevada Conservancy | October 2nd, 2014

There is a growing understanding that many Sierra Nevada forests are not healthy and that overgrown forests are susceptible to disease and intense wildfire. There is like

There is a growing understanding that many Sierra Nevada forests are not healthy and that overgrown forests are susceptible to disease and intense wildfire. There is likewise broad consensus that science-based ecological restoration of our Sierra Nevada forests must be dramatically increased in order stem the tide of large, uncharacteristic wildfires. These wildfires threaten the very lifeblood of California -- the forested watersheds of the Sierra Nevada. The State of Sierra Nevada’s Forests Report identifies the wide range of benefits provided by our Sierra Nevada forests and watersheds that are at risk: The Region is the origin of 60% of California’s developed water supply. These watersheds are the primary source of fresh water flowing into the Sacramento-SanJoaquin Delta, California’s water “hub.” The forests of the Sierra Nevada store massive amounts of carbon, assisting in the state’sefforts to combat climate change. The forests and watersheds provide crucial habitat to hundreds of species. The area provides world-class recreational opportunities enjoyed by millions from around the world. The Region is a major producer of wood products and hydro-electric power. Key findings of this report include the following: The United States Forest Service Region 5 (USFS) estimates that between six and nine million acres of lands for which they have management responsibility are in need of restoration. In order to return these lands to ecological health, a two to three times increase in the pace and scale of ecological restoration must occur. The amount of area consumed by fire in the Sierra Nevada continues to increase. More land has burned in the first four-and-a-half-years of this decade than seven entire decades in the past. Between 1984 and 2010, there was a significant increase in the number of acres within a forest fire burning at high-intensity, from an average of 20% in mid-1980s to over 30% by 2010. High-intensity burn areas can experience runoff and erosion rates five to ten times greater than low- or moderate-intensity burn areas. The sediment that is carried in the runoff not only degrades water quality and damages infrastructure, it fills reservoirs, reducing storage capacity. The 2013 Rim Fire, the largest fire in the recorded history of the Sierra Nevada, burned 257,000 acres, almost 40% of which was at high intensity. Estimates are that that fire produced the same amount of greenhouse gas emissions that 2.3 million vehicles produce in a year.

The Treatment of Sediment-Carrying Mountain Streams in Europe, and its Application to California

Scientific American | September 12th, 1885

The debris question, so important to the interests of this State, is full of interesting features. It is of such intricate and complicate nature that only the most care

The debris question, so important to the interests of this State, is full of interesting features. It is of such intricate and complicate nature that only the most careful and impartial investigations of all the conditions bearing upon it can bring about its successful solution. The desire to contribute a small share to such has moved the writer to investigate what has been done in reference to sediment-carrying rivers, torrential streams, etc., in other parts of the world. The Alps in the southern and central part of Europe afford the best opportunity to study this question, as they have a great many such watercourses, which have damaged and partially continue to destroy the valleys by raising  the river bed and destroying adjoining agricultural ands by erosion or filling in. Certain portions of these, however, have been very successfully improved by comparatively simple and inexpensive means. The source of the detritus there is natural wash, and inno case hydraulic mining. In California the conditions are somewhat different, since the natural as well as the artificial source of the detritus must be considered.

The uneven response of different snow measures to human-induced climate warming

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | June 25th, 2013

The effect of human-induced climate warming on different snow measures in the western United States is compared by calculating the time required to achieve a stat

The effect of human-induced climate warming on different snow measures in the western United States is compared by calculating the time required to achieve a statistically significant linear trend in the different measures, using time series derived from regionally downscaled global climate models. The measures examined include the water content of the spring snowpack, total cold-season snowfall, fraction of winter precipitation that falls as snow, length of the snow season, and fraction of cold-season precipitation retained in the spring snowpack, as well as temperature and precipitation. Various stakeholders may be interested in different sets of these variables. It is found that temperature and the fraction of winter precipitation that falls as snow exhibit significant trends first, followed in 5–10 years by the fraction of cold-season precipitation retained in the spring snowpack, and later still by the water content of the spring snowpack. Change in total cold-season snowfall is least detectable of all the measures, since it is strongly linked to precipitation, which has large natural variability and only a weak anthropogenic trend in the western United States. Averaging over increasingly wider areas monotonically increases the signal-to-noise ratio of the 1950–2025 linear trend from 0.15 to 0.37, depending on the snow measure.

Trends in tree cover change over three decades related to interannual climate variability and wildfire in California

Institute of Physics (IOP) | January 19th, 2025

The U.S. State of California has experienced frequent drought events, hotter temperatures and other disruptions to the climate system whose effects on ecosystems have bee

The U.S. State of California has experienced frequent drought events, hotter temperatures and other disruptions to the climate system whose effects on ecosystems have been widely reported in recent decades. Studies primarily confined to specific vegetation communities or species, individual drought incidents, or analysis over a relatively short intervals, has limited our understanding of the broad-scale effects on tree cover and the spatiotemporal variability of effects across broader regions. We focused analysis on multi-annual land cover and land surface change to assess patterns and trends in tree cover loss in tree-dominated Californian ecoregions from 1986 to 2019. The top three years of total tree cover loss for the state were 2018 (1901 km2), 2015 (1556 km2), and 2008 (1549 km2). Overall, annual tree cover loss had upward trends. Tree cover loss rapidly surged later in the study period and was apparently driven by climate stress and wildfires. Underlying geographic variability was apparent in both non-fire and fire-related tree cover loss that sharply increased during hotter multi-year droughts. The increasingly hotter and drier climate conditions were associated with significant increases in fire-induced mortality. Our findings indicate that a possible effect of future hotter and drier climate would lead to further tree cover loss, thereby endangering California's ecosystem goods and services. Geographic variability in tree cover trends indicates that ecoregion-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies would be useful to conserve the region's forest resources. Such strategies may benefit from consideration of historical disturbances, ecoregion's sensitivity to disturbance types, as well as potential ecoregion-specific climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks.

Twentieth-century shifts in forest structure in California: Denser forests, smaller trees, and increased dominance of oaks

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | January 20th, 2015

Two and a half decades of United States wildfire burn zone disaster data, 2000-2025

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 17th, 2025

Growing wildfire frequency and urban development expanding into fire-prone areas have heightened wildfire risk for wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities. When burn z

Growing wildfire frequency and urban development expanding into fire-prone areas have heightened wildfire risk for wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities. When burn zones come near or cross into communities, the heat, flames, and smoke can harm human health—directly or via psychosocial stressors—to the point of becoming a disaster. We harmonized six wildfire datasets to create the first U.S.-wide spatial dataset of wildfire burn zone disasters. Our criteria for a wildfire burn zone disaster were wildfires that burned near a community (≥96 people per km2 or met WUI criterion) and resulted in ≥1 civilian fatality, ≥1 destroyed structure, or received federal disaster declaration. We identified 6,212 U.S. wildfire burn zone disasters between 2000–2025. The annual number of these disasters ranged between 61 in 2001 and 570 in 2011 (median = 217), with an increasing trend over the study period. California had the highest number of wildfire burn zone disasters (n = 878, 14.1%). These data may inform demographic, economic, and population health research, as well as policymaking and resource allocation.

Understanding End-of-Century Snowpack Changes Over California’s Sierra Nevada

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 29th, 2019

Upper Division States Alternative for Post-2026 Operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead

Colorado Department of Natural Resources (DNR) | March 5th, 2024

Utah's Land, Water and Air 2022 Report to the Governor

Utah State University | November 30th, 2022