Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California

PLOS | April 28th, 2016

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the fa

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

Increasing elevation of fire in the Sierra Nevada and implications for forest change

Ecological Society of America (ESA) | July 23rd, 2015

Fire in high‐elevation forest ecosystems can have severe impacts on forest structure, function and biodiversity. Using a 105‐year data set, we found increasing elevat

Fire in high‐elevation forest ecosystems can have severe impacts on forest structure, function and biodiversity. Using a 105‐year data set, we found increasing elevation extent of fires in the Sierra Nevada, and pose five hypotheses to explain this pattern. Beyond the recognized pattern of increasing fire frequency in the Sierra Nevada since the late 20th century, we find that the upper elevation extent of those fires has also been increasing. Factors such as fire season climate and fuel build up are recognized potential drivers of changes in fire regimes. Patterns of warming climate and increasing stand density are consistent with both the direction and magnitude of increasing elevation of wildfire. Reduction in high elevation wildfire suppression and increasing ignition frequencies may also contribute to the observed pattern. Historical biases in fire reporting are recognized, but not likely to explain the observed patterns. The four plausible mechanistic hypotheses (changes in fire management, climate, fuels, ignitions) are not mutually exclusive, and likely have synergistic interactions that may explain the observed changes. Irrespective of mechanism, the observed pattern of increasing occurrence of fire in these subalpine forests may have significant impacts on their resilience to changing climatic conditions.

Independent Forensic Team Report: Oroville Dam Spillway Incident

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 5th, 2018

The Oroville Dam spillway incident was caused by a long-term systemic failure of the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), regulatory, and general i

The Oroville Dam spillway incident was caused by a long-term systemic failure of the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), regulatory, and general industry practices to recognize and address inherent spillway design and construction weaknesses, poor bedrock quality, and deteriorated service spillway chute conditions. The incident cannot reasonably be “blamed” mainly on any one individual, group, or organization. During service spillway operation on February 7, 2017, water injection through both cracks and joints in the chute slab resulted in uplift forces beneath the slab that exceeded the uplift capacity and structural strength of the slab, at a location along the steep section of the chute . The uplifted slab section exposed the underlying poor quality foundation rock at that location to unexpected severe erosion, resulting in removal of additional slab sections and more erosion . Responding to the damage to the service spillway chute necessitated difficult risk tradeoffs while the lake continued to rise. The resulting decisions, made without a full understanding of relative uncertainties and consequences, allowed the reservoir level to rise above the emergency spillway weir for the first time in the project’s history, leading to severe and rapid erosion downstream of the weir and, ultimately, the evacuation order. . . . There were many opportunities to intervene and prevent the incident , but the overall system of interconnected factors operated in a way that these opportunities were missed. Numerous human , organizational, and industry factors led to the physical factors not being recognized and properly addressed, and to the decision-making during the incident.

Inter-Basin Transfers Extend the Benefits of Water From Forests to Population Centers Across the Conterminous U.S.

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 12th, 2022

Clean water from forests is commonly used to supply drinking water to communities both within and outside basin boundaries through inter-basin transfers (IBTs). Here, we

Clean water from forests is commonly used to supply drinking water to communities both within and outside basin boundaries through inter-basin transfers (IBTs). Here, we modified the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) model to provide estimates of mean water yield and the proportion of mean flow originating on forested lands at the 12-Digit Hydrologic Unit Code scale across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We accounted for the benefits of forests for drinking water supply and receiving populations through IBTs by incorporating a new IBT database, surface intake location information for public drinking water systems, and modeled water yield from forests. We compiled the new database of 594 IBTs ranging from 0.01 million m3 yr−1 to 8,900 million m3 yr−1, for a total transferred volume of 116,894 million m3 yr−1. According to our results, forested lands comprised 28.7% of the total land area across CONUS, but contributed 46% of the total surface water yield. Approximately 125.5 million people derived more than 10% of their surface drinking water supply from forested lands, and 83.1 million people received more than 50% of their surface drinking water supply from forested lands. Of those 83.1 million people receiving more than 50% of their surface drinking water supply from forested lands, 19.4 million people obtained some (≥0.01%) of that water through IBTs. We conclude that accounting for IBTs is critical to accurately assess the contribution of forested watersheds for surface drinking water supply. Hydrologic models for assessment and decision making must include IBTs to fully account for the effects of climate change and human population dynamics on water resource availability at watershed to regional scales. Results from this study can aid water resource and forest managers in developing integrated watershed management plans at a time when climate change, population growth, and land use change threaten water supplies.

Interactions between snow cover and evaporation lead to higher sensitivity of streamflow to temperature

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 4th, 2020

Estimates of potential evaporation often neglect the effects of snow cover on evaporation process. Here, we present a definition of potential evaporation that explicitly

Estimates of potential evaporation often neglect the effects of snow cover on evaporation process. Here, we present a definition of potential evaporation that explicitly accounts for landscapes that are partially covered by snow. We show that, in the presence of snowpack, our evaporation estimates differ from conventional methods that assume evaporation from a free water surface. Specifically, we find that conventional methods overestimate potential evaporation as well as aridity, taken as the ratio of atmospheric water demand to supply, in landscapes where snowfall is significant. With dwindling snow-cover, actual aridity increases, which could explain the reduction in streamflow with decreasing snowfall. We suggest that streamflow, and hence water availability, is more sensitive to temperature changes in colder than in warmer regions.

Investigating the Role of Snow Water Equivalent on Streamflow Predictability during Drought

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | October 20th, 2022

Snowpack provides the majority of predictive information for water supply forecasts (WSFs) in snow-dominated basins across the western United States. Drought conditions t

Snowpack provides the majority of predictive information for water supply forecasts (WSFs) in snow-dominated basins across the western United States. Drought conditions typically accompany decreased snowpack and lowered runoff efficiency, negatively impacting WSFs. Here, we investigate the relationship between snow water equivalent (SWE) and April–July streamflow volume (AMJJ-V) during drought in small headwater catchments, using observations from 31 USGS streamflow gauges and 54 SNOTEL stations. A linear regression approach is used to evaluate forecast skill under different historical climatologies used for model fitting, as well as with different forecast dates. Experiments are constructed in which extreme hydrological drought years are withheld from model training, that is, years with AMJJ-V below the 15th percentile. Subsets of the remaining years are used for model fitting to understand how the climatology of different training subsets impacts forecasts of extreme drought years. We generally report overprediction in drought years. However, training the forecast model on drier years, that is, below-median years (P15, P57.5], minimizes residuals by an average of 10%in drought year forecasts, relative to a baseline case, with the highest median skill obtained in mid- to late April for colder regions. We report similar findings using a modified National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) procedure in nine large Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) basins, highlighting the importance of the snowpack–streamflow relationship in streamflow predictability. We propose an “adaptive sampling” approach of dynamically selecting training years based on antecedent SWE conditions, showing error reductions of up to 20% in historical drought years relative to the period of record. These alternate training protocols provide opportunities for addressing the challenges of future drought risk to water supply planning.

Lahar Hazard Zones for Eruption-Generated Lahars in the Lassen Volcanic Center, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | September 25th, 2012

Lahars, Indonesian for volcanic mudflows or debris-flows, are a rapidly flowing mixture of rock debris and water that originates on the slopes of a volcano. Lahar generat

Lahars, Indonesian for volcanic mudflows or debris-flows, are a rapidly flowing mixture of rock debris and water that originates on the slopes of a volcano. Lahar generation requires an adequate source of water, abundant unconsolidated debris, steep slopes, significant relief, and a triggering mechanism (Vallance, 2000). Various triggering mechanisms include the rapid melting of snow and ice by pyroclastic flows, intense rainfall on loose volcanic rock deposits, a breakout of a lake dammed by volcanic deposits, and a debris avalanche.

Landslide-channel feedbacks amplify channel widening during floods

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 24th, 2025

Local hydraulics influence habitat selection and swimming behavior in adult California Central Valley Chinook salmon at a large river confluence

Fisheries Research (Elsevier) | February 2nd, 2023

Long-term climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought

Ecology Letters (Wiley) | December 20th, 2016

Rising temperatures are amplifying drought‐induced stress and mortality in forests globally. It remains uncertain, however, whether tree mortality across drought‐stri

Rising temperatures are amplifying drought‐induced stress and mortality in forests globally. It remains uncertain, however, whether tree mortality across drought‐stricken landscapes will be concentrated in particular climatic and competitive environments. We investigated the effects of long‐term average climate [i.e. 35‐year mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD)] and competition (i.e. tree basal area) on tree mortality patterns, using extensive aerial mortality surveys conducted throughout the forests of California during a 4‐year statewide extreme drought lasting from 2012 to 2015. During this period, tree mortality increased by an order of magnitude, typically from tens to hundreds of dead trees per km2, rising dramatically during the fourth year of drought. Mortality rates increased independently with average CWD and with basal area, and they increased disproportionately in areas that were both dry and dense. These results can assist forest managers and policy‐makers in identifying the most drought‐vulnerable forests across broad geographic areas.