Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 18th, 2023

Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | January 1st, 2014

The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Col

The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | February 12th, 2015

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions never

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for bench- marking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium.

Updating and recalibrating the integrated Santa Rosa Plain Hydrologic Model to assess stream depletion and to simulate future climate and management scenarios in Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | March 10th, 2025

The Santa Rosa Plain Hydrologic Model (SRPHM) was developed and published in 2014 through a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Sonoma Water to an

The Santa Rosa Plain Hydrologic Model (SRPHM) was developed and published in 2014 through a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Sonoma Water to analyze the hydrologic system in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, help meet the increasing demand for fresh water, and prepare for future uncertainties in water resources. The original model simulated hydrological conditions and water use from water years 1975 to 2010. Recently (2023), the USGS, in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board and Sonoma Water, updated the SRPHM model to extend its simulation period to the end of the 2018 calendar year, incorporate new estimates of rural and agricultural water use, and use an efficient input format for climate variables. The updated model was recalibrated, and evaluation of the new model calibration is included in this report. This report presents the results of comparing the hydraulic heads, streamflow, and groundwater budget simulated by the updated model with those generated by the original model and observed data. The main difference in the simulated budget between the original and updated SRPHM is the estimates of agricultural pumping, rural domestic pumping, and return flow generated from rural water use that was not simulated in the original model.

Updating the CALVIN Hydro-Economic Optimization Model of California: Central Valley Groundwater

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 11th, 2012

Updates are being made to Central Valley groundwater in CALVIN, a hydro-economic model of California’s intertied water supply and delivery system. These updates reflect

Updates are being made to Central Valley groundwater in CALVIN, a hydro-economic model of California’s intertied water supply and delivery system. These updates reflect better estimates of water demands, groundwater availability, and local water management opportunities. This poster focuses on updating CALVIN groundwater parameters based on California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) model inputs and results. Two CALVIN update projects, using the DWR and USGS groundwater models, are underway to improve groundwater representation including basin inflows, reuse, return flows, capacities, and pumping costs. These sub-projects will result in a CALVIN model with updated groundwater representation based on C2VSIM and CVHM. This poster shows a preliminary comparison of these sub-projects and a summary comparison between the DWR and USGS models.

Use of a Three-Dimensional Model for the Analysis of the Ground-Water Flow System in Parker Valley, Arizona and California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 1st, 1982

User Manual for the California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 13th, 2013

This report describes the input and output files for the California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSim). C2VSim is an integrated numeri

This report describes the input and output files for the California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSim). C2VSim is an integrated numerical model simulating land surface processes and groundwater and surface water flows in the main alluvial aquifer system of California’s Central Valley (figure 1). C2VSim was developed using the Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) application, which couples a three-dimensional finite element groundwater simulation process with one-dimensional land surface, stream flow, lake, unsaturated zone and smallstream watershed simulation processes. The C2VSim version described in this report runs under IWFM version 3.02 and utilizes a coarse grid, and is thus referred to as version 3.02-CG. In addition, the input files for the C2VSim model are regularly updated to correct errors, incorporate improved input data or extend the simulation time period. These updates are referred to as revisions; this report describes the data in revision R374, released in June 2013. The C2VSim model inputs include monthly historical precipitation, stream inflows, surface water diversions, land use and crop acreages for the simulation period, October 1921 through September 2009. C2VSim dynamically calculates crop water demands, allocates contributions from precipitation, soil moisture and surface water diversions, and calculates the groundwater pumpage required to meet the remaining demand. The coarse grid version of the C2VSim model incorporates a finite element grid with 1392 elements, grouped into 21 water budget subregions (figure 1), which are further grouped by drainage basin into five hydrologic regions. The model subregions are based on Depletion Study Areas (DSAs), originally created by the DWR Division of Planning for estimating regional water supplies and demands. Hydrologic parameters (including hydraulic conductivities, storage parameters and recession coefficients) were calibrated to match observed values including groundwater heads, groundwater head differences between well pairs, surface water flows, and stream-groundwater flows for the period between September 1975 and October 2003. The model simulates the historical response of the Central Valley’s groundwater flow system to historical stresses, and can also be used to simulate the response to projected future stresses. Agricultural groundwater pumping is not monitored in the Central Valley, and the C2VSim model provides pumpage estimates that are considered robust because they are constrained spatially and temporally by the estimated demand and surface water supplies. The calibrated model is also being used as the basis for the groundwater flow component of CalSim 3, a water resources planning model for simulating operation of the California State Water Project (SWP) and Federal Central Valley Project (CVP).

User’s Manual for the Draper Climate-Distribution Software Suite with Data-Evaluation Tools

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | March 20th, 2019

Development of a time series of spatially distributed climate data is an important step in the process of developing physically based environmental models requiri

Development of a time series of spatially distributed climate data is an important step in the process of developing physically based environmental models requiring distributed inputs of climate data beyond what is available from observations collected at climate stations. To prepare inputs required for model-mapping units across the study area, climate data (temperature and precipitation) are distributed by combining data from gridded surfaces of mean-monthly climate-data values with (often) widely spaced daily pointobservations. Examples of climate-data files used to develop PRMS-formatted input files for the Merced River Basin Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) are includedin this manual. The Draper Climate-Distribution Software Suite (Draper Suite) consists of the Draper climate-distribution program (Draper) and several supporting pre- and post-processing applications. Draper combines spatially distributed input in the form of monthly averaged values for precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature with daily observed data from climate stations to estimate distributed climate-data values at predefined locations across a study area (typically adrainage basin) on a daily time step. Alternative methods are used when station data are limited or missing for a particular day. Draper uses a set of required and optional input andoutput files with defined formats and naming conventions. Ashell application also is available to manage multiple runs of the Draper application. Other applications in the Draper Suite include (1) a toolto find and interactively remove outliers in the input data, (2) atool to check and enforce a minimum daily temperature range, and (3) a tool to view output diagnostic information as time- series graphs. These tools can be used iteratively to evaluate and improve the results from Draper as part of a work flow involving physically-based environmental models, such as the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS).

Using Conceptual Models and Decision-Support Tools to Guide Ecosystem Restoration Planning and Adaptive Management: An Example from the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | October 1st, 2012

The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) is located on the western edge of California’s Central Valley and is of critical ecological and economic importance. H

The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) is located on the western edge of California’s Central Valley and is of critical ecological and economic importance. However, ecosystem alterations for human uses changed many of the Delta’s natural processes, and it is now considered in need of restoration. An approach was developed to evaluate and rank restoration actions in the Delta under the Ecosystem Restoration Program’s Delta Regional Ecosystem Restoration Implementation Plan (DRERIP). The DRERIP approach provides an explicit framework for evaluating restoration actions, using linked conceptual models, an action evaluation procedure, and a decision-support tool. Conceptual models allow scientists and managers to synthesize scientific information and make qualitative predictions about ecosystem function and restoration outcomes to guide and focus restoration efforts. The action evaluation procedure is a structured assessment of restoration actions. The procedure clearly describes actions to be evaluated, assesses the magnitude (importance and scale) and certainty of anticipated ecological outcomes, estimates degrees of worth (achieving intended outcomes) and risk (causing adverse consequences), evaluates the reversibility of the action, and identifies opportunities for learning. The values for worthiness, risk, reversibility, and learning opportunity are used in the decision- support tool to determine the fate of a proposed action. The decision-support tool is a structured decision tree that determines the disposition of an action: whether a restoration project should be discarded, revised with a different approach and re-evaluated, or implemented; and, if implemented, at what scale (targeted research, pilot project, or full implementation). The DRERIP approach provides managers with a valuable tool for restoration planning, and a foundation for integration with quantitative methods for a comprehensive ecosystem restoration plan.

Valuing the benefits of forest restoration on enhancing hydropower and water supply in California's Sierra Nevada

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | March 15th, 2023

Forest restoration through mechanical thinning, prescribed burning, and other management actions is vital to improving forest resilience to fire and drought across the We

Forest restoration through mechanical thinning, prescribed burning, and other management actions is vital to improving forest resilience to fire and drought across the Western United States, and yields benefits that can be monetized, including improvements in water supply and hydropower. Using California's Sierra Nevada as a study area, we assess the water and energy benefits of forest-restoration projects. By using a scalable top-down approach to track annual evapotranspiration following forest disturbance, coupled with hydropower simulations that include energy-price information, and marginal prices for water sales, we project the potential economic benefits of hydropower and water sales accruing to water-rights holders. The results found that water-related benefits from strategically planned fuels-reduction treatments now being carried out can be sufficient to offset costs of management actions aimed at forest restoration, especially in the face of climate change. Our findings justified investments in restoring forests and reinforce the central role of water and hydropower providers in partnerships for management of source-water watersheds. Results also highlighted the importance of accurate, scalable data and tools from the hydrology and water-resources community.