Evaluating GFS and ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Integrated Water Vapor Transport along the U.S. West Coast

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | October 28th, 2022

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow regions in the atmosphere of enhanced integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and can produce extreme precipitation and high s

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow regions in the atmosphere of enhanced integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and can produce extreme precipitation and high societal impacts. Reliable and skillful forecasts of landfalling ARs in the western United States are critical to hazard preparation and aid in decision support activities, such as Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO). The purpose of this study is to compare the cool-season water year skill of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) forecasts of IVT along the U.S. West Coast for 2017–20. The skill is analyzed using probability-over-threshold forecasts of IVT magnitudes ≥ 250 kg m−1 s−1 (P250) using contingency table skill metrics in coastal Northern California and along the west coast of North America. Analysis of P250 with lead time (dProg/dt) found that the EPS provided ∼1 day of additional lead time for situational awareness over the GEFS at lead times of 6–10 days. Forecast skill analysis highlights that the EPS leads over the GEFS with success ratios 0.10–0.15 higher at lead times > 6 days for P250 thresholds of ≥25% and ≥50%, while event-based skill analysis using the probability of detection (POD) found that both models were largely similar with minor latitudinal variations favoring higher POD for each model in different locations along the coast. The relative skill of the EPS over the GEFS is largely attributed to overforecasting by the GEFS at longer lead times and an increase in the false alarm ratio.

Evaluating the Accuracy of Reclamation’s 24-Month Study Lake Powell Projections

Utah State University | February 18th, 2022

The bias for inflow predictions will likely be reduced now that the reference period includes a more recent, and somewhat drier, span of time, but projections of future i

The bias for inflow predictions will likely be reduced now that the reference period includes a more recent, and somewhat drier, span of time, but projections of future inflows are likely to remain biased, because the hydrology of the 1991-2020 reference period was still wetter than the current Millennium Drought.

Evaluation of a Ground-Water Flow and Transport Model of the Upper Coachella Valley, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | June 25th, 1992

A geohydrologic data base was compiled to evaluate the changes in ground-water conditions in the upper Coachella Valley, California, since 1978, when the results of a pre

A geohydrologic data base was compiled to evaluate the changes in ground-water conditions in the upper Coachella Valley, California, since 1978, when the results of a previous ground-water-model study were published. The compiled data were analyzed to improve understanding of the ground-water flow system and the effects on water quality of an existing artificial-recharge program. Analysis of well logs indicates that several zones of differing permeability can be correlated throughout the valley. Analysis of the water-quality data suggests that the artificial recharge of Colorado River water has caused increases in dissolved solids in some wells. Sparse data indicate that the recharged water moves much more rapidly through the uppermost part of the ground-water system than through deeper parts. An evaluation of the existing ground-water simulation model of the upper Coachella Valley that was developed in the 1978 study yielded several conclusions. First, the 300- to 400-foot rise in water levels in the artificialrecharge area in 1985-86 significantly affected the groundwater flow system. Transmissivities in the model had to be increased to reflect the increase in saturated thickness. Storage-coefficient values in the model had to be increased from 0.02 (used in the previous study) to 0.10-0.15 to simulate the unconfined water-level response during this period. Second, stream-recharge and underflow rates from San Gorgonio Pass during 1979-86 seem to have been higher than the values estimated for previous studies. Conditions generally were wetter in 1979-86 than during the period in which the earlier estimates were made. Third, the flow system could be simulated more accurately if the model were extended to its true southeastern boundary, the Salton Sea. Finally, there are important vertical differences in transport of the artificially recharged water that the two-dimensional areal transport model cannot simulate. The study results indicate several additional data collection and modeling needs. The drilling of several sets of monitor wells perforated at different depths could help better define the three-dimensional flow system and waterquality differences. Additional data also are needed on underflow and stream recharge, evaporation rates and infiltration rates at the artificial-recharge facilities, and net pumpage. Three-dimensional flow and transport models are needed to evaluate the effects of ground-water development on water levels and water quality.

Evaluation of Geohydrologic Framework, Recharge Estimates, and Ground-Water Flow of the Joshua Tree Area, San Bernardino County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | February 7th, 2005

Ground water historically has been the sole source of water supply for the community of Joshua Tree in the Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin of the Morongo ground-water b

Ground water historically has been the sole source of water supply for the community of Joshua Tree in the Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin of the Morongo ground-water basin in the southern Mojave Desert. The Joshua Basin Water District (JBWD) supplies water to the community from the underlying Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin. The JBWD is concerned with the long-term sustainability of the underlying aquifer. To help meet future demands, the JBWD plans to construct production wells in the adjacent Copper Mountain ground-water subbasin. As growth continues in the desert, there may be a need to import water to supplement the available ground-water resources. In order to manage the ground-water resources and to identify future mitigating measures, a thorough understanding of the ground-water system is needed. The purpose of this study was threefold: (1) improve the understanding of the geohydrologic framework of the Joshua Tree and Copper Mountain ground-water subbasins, (2) determine the distribution and quantity of recharge using field and numerical techniques, and (3) develop a ground-water flow model that can be used to help manage the water resources of the region.

Evaluation of Ground-Water Flow and Solute Transport in the Lompoc Area, Santa Barbara County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 1997

Ground-water quality in the Lompoc area, especially in the Lompoc plain, is only marginally acceptable for most uses. Demand for ground water has increased for municipal

Ground-water quality in the Lompoc area, especially in the Lompoc plain, is only marginally acceptable for most uses. Demand for ground water has increased for municipal use since the late 1950's and has continued to be high for irrigation on the Lompoc plain, the principal agricultural area in the Santa Ynez River basin. As use has increased, the quality of ground water has deteriorated in some areas of the Lompoc plain. The dissolved-solids concentration in the main zone of the upper aquifer beneath most of the central and western plains has increased from less than 1,000 milligrams per liter in the 1940's to greater than 2,000 milligrams per liter in the 1960's. Dissolved-solids concentration have remained relatively constant since the 1960's. A three-dimensional finite-difference model was used to simulate ground-water flow in the Lompoc area and a two-dimensional finite-element model was used to simulate solute transport to gain a better understanding of the ground-water system and to evaluate the effects of proposed management plans for the ground-water basin. The aquifer system was simulated in the flow model as four horizontal layers. In the area of the Lompoc plain, the layers represent the shallow, middle, and main zones of the upper aquifer, and the lower aquifer. For the Lompoc upland and Lompoc terrace, the four layers represent the lower aquifer. The solute transport model was used to simulate dissolved-solids transport in the main zone of the upper aquifer beneath the Lompoc plain. The flow and solute-transport models were calibrated to transient conditions for 1941-88. A steady-state simulation was made to provide initial conditions for the transient-state simulation by using long-term average (1941-88) recharge rates. Model-simulated hydraulic heads generally were within 5 feet of measured heads in the main zone for transient conditions. Model-simulated dissolved-solids concentrations for the main zone generally differed less than 200 milligrams per liter from concentrations in 1988.

Evaluation of Non-hydrostatic Simulations of Northeast Pacific Atmospheric Rivers and Comparison to In-situ Observations

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | August 31st, 2015

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of concentrated atmospheric water vapor transport that provide an important atmospheric linkage between the subtropics and the m

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of concentrated atmospheric water vapor transport that provide an important atmospheric linkage between the subtropics and the midlatitudes, facilitating over 90% of meridional water vapor flux and often resulting in extreme precipitation events in regions of enhanced coastal orography. In this investigation, the authors conduct continuous (3 month), large-domain (3600 km × 3200 km), high-resolution (4 km), nonhydrostatic simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and compare the observations to previously reported dropsonde observations from the California Land-Falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) and the Pacific Land-Falling Jets Experiment (PACJET) in order to address an existing gap in knowledge regarding the ability of atmospheric models to simulate the finescale vertical and horizontal structure of atmospheric rivers. The WRF simulations reproduce key structural and thermodynamic characteristics of atmospheric rivers—including well-defined corridors of strong water vapor transport, moist-neutral stability in the lower troposphere, and strong low-level jet/water vapor transport maxima near ~1 km MSL. While WRF does generally capture the extreme values of instantaneous vertically integrated water transport—a defining feature of real-world atmospheric rivers—constituent variables exhibit biases relative to observations, including −11.2% for integrated vapor transport, +5.9% for integrated water vapor, and −17.7% for 1 km MSL wind speed. Findings suggest that high-resolution nonhydrostatic atmospheric simulations are an appropriate tool for investigating atmospheric rivers in contexts where finescale spatial structure and realistic water vapor transport maxima are important.

Evaluation of the Source and Transport of High Nitrate Concentrations in Ground Water, Warren Subbasin, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 13th, 2003

From early 1995 through 2001, nitrate (NO3) concentrations in ground water in the Warren subbasin, California, increased from a background concentration of 10 milligrams

From early 1995 through 2001, nitrate (NO3) concentrations in ground water in the Warren subbasin, California, increased from a background concentration of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to more than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) water-quality maximum contaminant level of 44 mg/L (10 mg/L as nitrogen). This increase coincided with an artificial ground-water recharge program implemented by the local water district, Hi-Desert Water District (HDWD), to reverse ground-water level declines of as much as 300 ft. Major findings on ground-water quality from this study are the following: •Septage from septic tanks was the primary source of NO3 to the ground-water system. •Rising ground-water levels, resulting from the artificial-recharge program, entrained high-NO3 septage stored in the unsaturated zone. •The potential for ground-water contamination should be evaluated before beginning an artificial- recharge program in an area that uses septic tanks.

Evapotranspiration frequently increases during droughts

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 27th, 2022

Changes in evapotranspiration (ET) affect water availability and ecosystem health. Higher evaporative demand during drought acts to increase ET, but droughts also reduce

Changes in evapotranspiration (ET) affect water availability and ecosystem health. Higher evaporative demand during drought acts to increase ET, but droughts also reduce the moisture supply necessary for ET, limiting predictions of even the sign of ET anomalies. Drought-driven increases in ET (ET+drought) are of particular concern because they quickly deplete water resources, causing flash droughts and acute stress on ecosystems. Here, using a water balance approach, we show that ET+drought is globally widespread, occurring in 44.4% of drought months. The sign of ET’s drought response depends most on the magnitude of precipitation and total water storage anomalies, rather than its location. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Earth system models underestimate the ET+drought probability by nearly one-half, and more so in drier regions, primarily due to missing representations of soil structure effects on soil evaporation, as well as incorrectly parameterized plant and soil traits. These processes should be prioritized to reduce model uncertainties in the water–energy–food nexus.

Evapotranspiration of urban landscapes in Los Angeles, California at the municipal scale

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 24th, 2017

Evapotranspiration (ET), an essential process in biosphere-atmosphere interactions, is highly uncertain in cities that maintain cultivated and irrigated landscapes. We e

Evapotranspiration (ET), an essential process in biosphere-atmosphere interactions, is highly uncertain in cities that maintain cultivated and irrigated landscapes. We estimated ET of irrigated landscapes in Los Angeles by combining empirical models of turfgrass ET and tree transpiration derived from in situ measurements with previously developed remotely sensed estimates of vegetation cover and ground-based vegetation surveys. We modeled irrigated landscapes as a two-component system comprised of trees and turfgrass to assess annual and spatial patterns of ET. Annual ET from vegetated landscapes (ETveg) was 11106 53 mm/yr and ET from the whole city (vegetated and nonvegetated areas, ETland) was three times smaller, reflecting the fractional vegetation cover. With the exception of May and June, monthly ETland was significantly higher than predicted by the North American Land Data Assimilation System. ETveg  was close to potential ET, indicating abundant irrigation inputs. Monthly averaged ETveg varied from 1.560.1 mm/d (December) to 4.360.2 mm/d (June). Turfgrass was responsible for 70% of ETveg. For trees, angiosperm species (71% of all trees) contributed over 90% to total tree transpiration, while coniferous and palm species made very small contributions. ETland was linearly correlated with median household income across the city, confirming the importance of social factors in determining spatial distribution of urban vegetation. These estimates have important implications for constraining the municipal water budget of Los Angeles and improving regional-scale hydrologic models, as well as for developing water-saving practices. The methodology used in this study is also transferable to other semiarid regions for quantification of urban landscape ET.

Evolution of global snow drought characteristics from 1850 to 2100

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | June 6th, 2023