Decision Scaling Evaluation of Climate Risks to the State Water Project

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | May 29th, 2019

This Final Decision Scaling Vulnerability Assessment Report updates and describes a joint endeavor of the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) and the Universit

This Final Decision Scaling Vulnerability Assessment Report updates and describes a joint endeavor of the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) and the University of Massachusetts, Amherst (UMass) to improve planning for the uncertain effects of climate change on the California Central Valley Water System (CVS)1 by integrating vulnerability-based analysis with traditional risk-based assessment methods. This report summarizes the research goals, analytical approach, workflow of modeling tools, evaluation of alternative experimental designs, refined strategy for data visualization, and assessment of the vulnerability of the CVS to climate change.  This report begins with a review of historical and projected climate change in California, which includes descriptions of several DWR-UMass team investigations of historical records, observed climate trends, and many climate projections for the CVS, specifically. The next section of this report summarizes the work previously accomplished by the academic community, the government, and the community of water resources practitioners evaluating climate change-related risks to the CVS.  With that background in place, this report explains the methodology developed for this study (illustrated in Figure ES1) and provides details on each sub-step of the process. Whereas previous studies have tested the response of some aspect of the California water system to ahistorical climate traces, the decision scaling approach adopted for this study allows systematic assessment of the vulnerability of the entire (interconnected and complex) CVS to a wide range of potential future climate conditions, and quantification of the significance of climate shift relative to natural (and climate-change-amplified) variability. The climate response function that results from the decision scaling approach depicts expected water system performance relative to historical performance across a range of climate changes. An important benefit of this approach is the ability to use a variety of climate information sources to assess the level of concern to assign to the vulnerabilities that are identified. Consequently, climate information, including climate change projections and formal probability estimates, can be used as a sensitivity factor when assessing risk, rather than the driver of the analysis. This allows discussion of risk and opportunity (each a function of impact and likelihood) in water system investment.  This assessment of long-term and persistent hydrologic impacts of climate change focuses on the effects to the operation of the State Water Project (SWP), including ecological conditions that dictate operating rules. DWR owns and operates the SWP for flood control, maintenance of environmental and water quality conditions, water supply, hydropower, and recreation. Consequently, analysis of SWP performance under climate-changed conditions yields an array of impact metrics across these areas of concern. The analysis focuses on persistent medium- and long-term conditions evaluated at a monthly time-step. Short-duration extreme precipitation events that cause flooding may also stress water resource management but are beyond the scope of this study.  This study has adopted CalLite 3.0 to simulate the coordinated operations of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and SWP under a wide range of climate possibilities. Climate traces are developed through coupling historical daily temperature and precipitation (1950–2013) (Livneh et al. 2013) to the paleo-dendrochronological reconstructed streamflow record of the Sacramento-4-river annual streamflow (900–2013) (Meko et al. 2014). An advanced hydrologic model, the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting distributed hydrologic model (SAC-SMA-DS), translates the hydroclimatic traces into streamflow, which are the key inputs to the water system model.

Declining Groundwater Level Effects on Supply Well Operations

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | December 1st, 2017

Pumping more from groundwater basins than they can sustainably supply decreases groundwater levels, often by undesirable amounts. Economic impacts from overdraft

Pumping more from groundwater basins than they can sustainably supply decreases groundwater levels, often by undesirable amounts. Economic impacts from overdraft and drought include increased costs for supplying water and lost revenue from inability to meet water demands. The combination of decreased groundwater level with existing well depth may limit well production as pumping costs increase and wells run dry. Declining groundwater elevations may also incur costs to move pumps deeper in the wells. Further falling groundwater elevation increases costs for production and maintenance, and decreases production capacity, as pumping levels drop into the screened intervals of wells and cause screen clogging and corrosion. In more extreme cases, well replacement costs may be incurred if groundwater drops so low that adequate submergence of pumps cannot be maintained, and wells become unusable. The potential impacts of decreasing groundwater elevation on supply well operations were evaluated for a study area in California’s Central Valley (greater vicinity of Tulare, CA). Well construction data from logs provided by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) were characterized through statistical analysis of the elevations for the tops and bottoms of screened intervals. Groundwater elevation time series were obtained from the DWR Water Data Library. Estimated trends in well capacity loss were developed from estimates of the fraction of wells over time that had standing water levels (minus an estimated pumping drawdown) below 1) the top of the screened interval and 2) the bottom of the screened interval. The end result is a method for estimating the costs of water level declines over time from drought or groundwater overdraft due to effects on proper operation and pumping of wells. The conceptual approach, data, methods, and conclusions of this thesis draw from a research report funded by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA).

Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 23rd, 2024

Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate ch

Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.

Declining mountain snowpack in western North America

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | January 3rd, 2005

Mountain snowpack in western North America is a key component of the hydrologic cycle, storing water from the winter (when most precipitation falls) and releasi

Mountain snowpack in western North America is a key component of the hydrologic cycle, storing water from the winter (when most precipitation falls) and releasing it in spring and early summer, when economic, environmental, and recreational demands for water throughout the West are frequently greatest. In most river basins of the West, especially in Washington, Oregon, and California, snow (rather than man-made reservoirs) is the largest component of water storage; hence, the West is (to varying degrees) vulnerable to climatic variations and changes that influence spring snowpack.

Delta Regional Monitoring Program Nutrients Synthesis: Modeling to Assist Identification of Temporal and Spatial Data Gaps for Nutrient Monitoring

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | March 1st, 2018

Nutrient loads are an important water quality management issue in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and there is consensus that the current monitoring activities d

Nutrient loads are an important water quality management issue in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and there is consensus that the current monitoring activities do not collect all the information needed to answer important management questions.  The purpose of this report is to use hydrodynamic model outputs to refine recommendations for monitoring nutrients and related conditions in the Delta. The basic premise was that variability in water source and hydraulic residence time can serve to estimate variability in water quality. Therefore, using existing hydrodynamic models that are highly resolved in space and time could be a cost-effective way to get information about likely spatial and temporal variability in nutrients and nutrient-associated parameters. We assume that the Delta can be divided into relatively homogeneous subregions (e.g., such as those proposed in a previous report by Jabusch et al. 2016) and that a representative monitoring location can be chosen in each subregion to track status and trends. We also assume that, within any subregion, areas with long hydraulic residence time and source water mixing may represent potential nutrient transformation hotspots.  Two types of modeling approaches were applied: 1) volumetric water source analysis to evaluate the mix of source waters within each subregion; and 2) particle tracking simulations. Results from the source water analysis were evaluated to assess heterogeneity of water sources within each of the subregions. Results from the particle tracking analysis were evaluated to identify high-residence-time areas. Finally, we compared analysis results to current monitoring locations to inform potential monitoring gaps or redundancies within each of the subregions. 

Delta Salinity Management Workshops 2022 Information Sheet

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | March 7th, 2022

Demonstration of a Watershed Approach to Wetland Restoration Planning for Load Reductions: A Pilot Demonstration Project Using GreenPlan-IT in the Santa Rosa Plain, Sonoma County, California

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | December 30th, 2017

This summary memorandum presents technical recommendations to the 401 Certification and Waste Discharge Program (401 Program) of the State Water Resources Control Board (

This summary memorandum presents technical recommendations to the 401 Certification and Waste Discharge Program (401 Program) of the State Water Resources Control Board (State Board) for a coherent, scientifically sound, repeatable, watershed approach to wetland restoration site evaluation, compliance monitoring and assessment, and Tracking. The recommendations are drawn from the previous four memoranda produced for the Pilot Demonstration Project (Project) that address the following subjects: project work plan and information flow diagram; scientific literature review; landscape scenario planning (to map and prioritize restoration opportunities); and a framework for a watershed-approach to evaluate and report the capacity of a wetland restoration site to protect wetland beneficial uses. This Project focused on a sub-watershed of the Santa Rosa Plain, in Sonoma County, California. The area was chosen for the Project for three reasons: (1) it is integral to an existing nutrient TMDL and therefore is supported relatively well with hydrological and nutrient data; (2) the historical and existing wetlands and streams of the area were mapped recently in sufficient detail to inform landscape planning; and (3) implementation of the TMDL will involve wetland restoration to reduce downstream nutrient loads, and therefore the Project may help implement the TMDL. The primary overall purpose of this Project was to explore how numerical simulation and statistical modeling could be combined with existing wetland assessment and reporting tools to create a coherent, watershed-based approach to wetland beneficial use protection. Any relevance to the existing nutrient TMDL for the demonstration area is an intentional, but secondary benefit of this Project. Contents: Wetland Beneficial Use Protection: Pilot Demonstration Project A Synthesis of Literature on Wetland Assimilation Capacities, Models, and Pollutant Loads Simulating Wetland Assimilation Capacity in the Lower Santa Rosa Creek Watershed Pilot Demonstration Area Using the HSPF Model Demonstration of a Watershed Approach To Wetland Restoration Planning Using GreenPlan-IT

Department of Fish and Game Rationale for Effects of Exports

California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) | November 2nd, 2011

This document describes the California Department of Fish and Game (DFG) methodology to quantify the surface area in the Sacramento – San Joaquin delta estuary (Delta)

This document describes the California Department of Fish and Game (DFG) methodology to quantify the surface area in the Sacramento – San Joaquin delta estuary (Delta) that is impacted by the operations of the State Water Project (SWP) and Central Valley Project (CVP) pumping facilities. In order to estimate the mitigation required to offset direct and indirect losses of Fish Species due to impacts to surface acres of aquatic habitat in the Delta accounted to the SWP Delta Pumping Facilities operations, DFG used an analysis based on conclusions and information contained in a manuscript that utilizes the Delta Simulation Model-2 Particle Tracking Model (DSM2PTM) (Kimmerer and Nobriga, 2008). This methodology provides the general loss of “particles” to the Delta which is a surrogate for loss of productivity and fish life stages vulnerable to these effects.

Development and Application of a 1D Compaction Model to Understand 65 Years of Subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 2nd, 2022

High rates of land subsidence, caused by groundwater overdraft, are resulting in millions of dollars of infrastructure damage in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV). In

High rates of land subsidence, caused by groundwater overdraft, are resulting in millions of dollars of infrastructure damage in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV). In recent years, the use of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has enabled us to substantially improve our understanding of this subsidence. However, only very occasionally have the InSAR data been integrated with a physical model of subsurface compaction. Here, we have used InSAR and other data to parameterize and calibrate a 1D compaction model. We applied our model to a study area in the SJV where we had access to the necessary information on hydraulic head to develop model inputs. Our model simulated subsidence in the three aquifer system layers over the period 1952–2017, and is the first 1D compaction model in the SJV to simulate multiple aquifer system layers from the 1950s to 2017. The results from our model suggest that previous studies have significantly underestimated the time constants governing the slow, residual compaction of subsurface clays. We suggest that residual compaction of clays is a process that continues for decades-to-centuries, indicating that to significantly reduce subsidence requires some recovery of head, not just a stabilization. We also show how compaction in the lower, confined aquifer has accounted for over 90% of subsidence in the past 20 years. Although our study area is small, our findings are likely representative of the subsiding regions of the SJV, and our methodology can be applied to unconsolidated aquifer systems exhibiting subsidence worldwide.

Development and Calibration of a Two-Dimensional Digital Model for the Analysis of the Ground-Water Flow System in the San Antonio Creek Valley, Santa Barbara County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 1st, 1985