Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California

Landslides (Springer) | June 27th, 2012

Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are sub

Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this study represent a computationally simple means of deriving critical values for other studies of nonlinear phenomena characterized by thresholds.

Patterns and magnitude of flow alteration in California, USA

Freshwater Biology (Wiley) | December 27th, 2017

The importance of the natural flow regime to stream and river health has received growing attention over the last two decades. Quantifying natural river flows has become

The importance of the natural flow regime to stream and river health has received growing attention over the last two decades. Quantifying natural river flows has become an essential component of water resource planning, including assessments of water supplies (Vicuna,Maurer, Joyce, Dracup, & Purkey, 2007; Wurbs, 2005), reservoir operations (Hejazi, Cai, & Ruddell, 2008) and drought risk (Meko,Therrell, Baisan, & Hughes, 2001). Understanding the natural flow regime is also crucial for managing stream ecosystems.

Postfire Sediment Mobilization and its Downstream Implications Across California, 1984–2021

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 27th, 2024

Punctuated Sediment Discharge during Early Pliocene Birth of the Colorado River: Evidence from Regional Stratigraphy, Sedimentology, and Paleontology

Sedimentary Geology (Elsevier) | January 1st, 2018

The Colorado River in the southwestern U.S. provides an excellent natural laboratory for studying the origins of a continent-scale river system, because deposits th

The Colorado River in the southwestern U.S. provides an excellent natural laboratory for studying the origins of a continent-scale river system, because deposits that formed prior to and during river initiation are well exposed in the lower river valley and nearby basinal sink. This paper presents a synthesis of regional stratigraphy, sedimentology, and micropaleontology from the southern Bouse Formation and similar-age deposits in the western Salton Trough, which we use to interpret processes that controlled the birth and early evolution of the Colorado River. The southern Bouse Formation is divided into three laterally persistent members: basal carbonate, siliciclastic, and upper bioclastic members. Basal carbonate accumulated in a tide-dominated marine embayment during a rise of relative sea level between ~ 6.3 and 5.4 Ma, prior to arrival of the Colorado River. The transition to green claystone records initial rapid influx of river water and its distal clay wash load into the subtidal marine embayment at ~ 5.4–5.3 Ma. This was followed by rapid southward progradation of the Colorado River delta, establishment of the earliest through-flowing river, and deposition of river-derived turbidites in the western Salton Trough (Wind Caves paleocanyon) between ~ 5.3 and 5.1 Ma. Early delta progradation was followed by regional shut-down of river sand output between ~ 5.1 and 4.8 Ma that resulted in deposition of marine clay in the Salton Trough, retreat of the delta, and re-flooding of the lower river valley by shallow marine water that deposited the Bouse upper bioclastic member. Resumption of sediment discharge at ~ 4.8 Ma drove massive progradation of fluvial-deltaic deposits back down the river valley into the northern Gulf and Salton Trough. These results provide evidence for a discontinuous, start-stop-start history of sand output during initiation of the Colorado River that is not predicted by existing models for this system. The underlying controls on punctuated sediment discharge are assessed by comparing the depositional chronology to the record of global sea-level change. The lower Colorado River Valley and Salton Trough experienced marine transgression during a gradual fall in global sea level between ~ 6.3 and 5.5 Ma, implicating tectonic subsidence as the main driver of latest Miocene relative sea-level rise. A major fall of global sea level at 5.3 Ma outpaced subsidence and drove regional delta progradation, earliest flushing of Colorado River sand into the northern Gulf of California, and erosion of Bouse basal carbonate and siliciclastic members. The lower Colorado River valley was re-flooded by shallow marine waters during smaller changes in global sea level ~ 5.1–4.8 Ma, after the river first ran through it, which requires a mechanism to stop delivery of sand to the lower river valley. We propose that tectonically controlled subsidence along the lower Colorado River, upstream of the southern Bouse study area, temporarily trapped sediment and stopped delivery of sand to the lower river valley and northern Gulf of California for ~ 200–300 kyr. Massive progradation of the fluvial-deltaic system back down the river valley into the Salton Trough starting ~ 4.8–4.5 Ma apparently was driven by a huge increase in sediment discharge that overwhelmed the sediment-storage capacity of sub-basins along the lower river corridor and established the fully integrated river channel network.

Quantifying Erosion Rates by Using Terrestrial Laser Scanning at Malakoff Diggins State Historic Park, Nevada County, California, 2014–17

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 31st, 2019

The abandoned hydraulic mine pit at Malakoff Diggins near Grass Valley, California, can produce large volumes of eroded sediment transportable by storm runoff. Sediment-l

The abandoned hydraulic mine pit at Malakoff Diggins near Grass Valley, California, can produce large volumes of eroded sediment transportable by storm runoff. Sediment-laden water discharged from the pit is a major source of heavy metals to Humbug Creek and the South Yuba River. To develop a comprehensive sediment budget for the Malakoff Diggins mine pit and identify sources of sediment and metals within the pit that can become entrained as suspended sediment in runoff discharged from the pit, the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources, the California Department of Parks and Recreation, and the Nevada Irrigation District, used terrestrial laser scanning technology to quantify eroded volumes and erosion rates of sedimentary units exposed in the pit walls. The results for eroded volumes and rates reported here are part one of a three-part study. High-resolution terrestrial laser scanning surveys were repeated annually from 2014 through 2017, including before and after dry and wet winters, measuring centimeter-scale topographic changes to quantify the volume of sediment eroded from outcrops at Malakoff Diggins State Historic Park, located on the western slope of the northern Sierra Nevada about 17 kilometers northeast of Grass Valley, California. Terrestrial laser scanning enabled construction of three-dimensional maps of the complex outcrop surfaces, which could not be mapped non-destructively or in sufficient detail with traditional surveying techniques. Net eroded volumes from discrete sedimentary units were calculated at four study sites (numbered 1, 2, 4, and 5) throughout the mine pit for the December 2014 to August 2017 period. Net eroded volumes at the four study sites during the 32-month study ranged from 288 plus or minus (±) 13 cubic meters (m3) of sediment at site 1 to 8,517±145 m3 at site 4. Annual erosion rates at the four study sites ranged from 0.06±0.01 cubic meters per square meter per year (m3/m2/yr) at site 4 to 0.14±0.01 m3/m2/yr at site 2. The total net eroded volume documented with terrestrial laser scanning at all four study sites from December 2014 to August 2017 was 12,934±334 m3 of sediment, and the average annual erosion rate for the four study sites was 0.10±0.04 m3/m2/yr. Maps of horizontal retreat indicate that a variety of erosional processes were responsible for the eroded sediment volume. These included areally broad and smaller-scale processes such as persistent dry ravel, periodic sheet wash, and frost heave and more localized and larger-scale processes such as coalescing rill and gully erosion, debris flows, rotational landslides, and block-fall failures.

Regional patterns in hydrologic response, a new three-component metric for hydrograph analysis and implications for ecohydrology, Northwest Volcanic Aquifer Study Area, USA

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | June 12th, 2020

Spatial patterns of hydrologic response were examined for the Northwest Volcanic Aquifer Study Area (NVASA). The utility of established hydrograph-separation methods for

Spatial patterns of hydrologic response were examined for the Northwest Volcanic Aquifer Study Area (NVASA). The utility of established hydrograph-separation methods for assessing hydrologic response in permeable volcanic terranes was assessed and a new three-component metric for hydrograph analysis was developed. The new metric, which partitions streamflow into subcomponents defined by the timescales of hydrologic response (e.g., fast-runoff, intermediate-interflow and slow-baseflow), was used to gain a fundamental understanding of the regional hydrology, investigate sub-regional differences, influencing factors, and ecohydrological implications. The combined effects of NVASA’s physiography, climate and geology create a strongly coupled surface-groundwater system that produces copious baseflow and limited quantities of runoff and interflow. Patterns of hydrologic response are influenced by the type and rate of precipitation and permeability of the underlying geology. Under variable precipitation conditions the hydrologic response of volcanic terranes with similar permeability and subsurface-storage capacity can be significantly different. From a water management and ecohydrology perspective, understanding regional patterns of hydrologic response and sub-regional differences is fundamental. Results indicate that minimum-flow methods provide the most conservative estimate of baseflow and may be the most robust for filtering out snowmelt bias in baseflow estimates. Baseflow contributes ∼75% of the perennial streamflow across the NVASA and represents a critical component of the regional water supply that provides critical cold-water habitat.

River Floods Under Wetter Antecedent Conditions Deliver Coarser Sediment to the Coast

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 13th, 2025

Increasing hydrologic volatility—more extreme rain, and larger variations between wet and dry years—has become apparent in some regions, but few data exist to determi

Increasing hydrologic volatility—more extreme rain, and larger variations between wet and dry years—has become apparent in some regions, but few data exist to determine how intensifying hydrologic extremes affect sedimentary systems. Using uniquely high-resolution records of fluvial suspended sediment and coastal morphology, we quantify sedimentary responses from a steep, 357-km2 watershed in California under extreme wet and dry hydrologic conditions. In years with multiple 2- to 10-year floods, fluvial sediment coarsened significantly as the wet season progressed, with late-season floods delivering dominantly sand-sized material to the coast. Greater and coarser sediment supply under wetter antecedent conditions affected nearshore geomorphic evolution for 4–5 years. The watershed and coastal changes we documented point to an increasing role of sediment-related hazards (flooding and hillslope erosion) and resources (nearshore accretion) as wet seasons intensify.

Rivers of California

Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E) | July 1st, 1962

Sand Supply to San Francisco Bay from the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers of the Central Valley, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 30th, 2024

Sediment from the Central Valley via the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun Bay is a primary source of sand to San Francisco Bay, California. Sand is mined f

Sediment from the Central Valley via the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun Bay is a primary source of sand to San Francisco Bay, California. Sand is mined from San Francisco Bay for commercial purposes, such as for use in concrete for construction. To better understand the supply of sand to Suisun Bay and San Francisco Bay, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Francisco Bay Estuary Institute (SFEI) and the San Francisco Bay Conservation Development Commission (BCDC), initiated this study to compile and synthesize historical data and estimate the total sediment and sand portion of sediment exiting the Delta to Suisun Bay for a 20-year period between water years 2001 and 2020.

Sediment Supply to San Francisco Bay, Water Years 1995 through 2016: Data, trends, and monitoring recommendations to support decisions about water quality, tidal wetlands, and resilience to sea level rise

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | June 11th, 2018

Knowledge of the status and trends of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay is critically important for management decisions about dredging, marsh restoration, flood contr

Knowledge of the status and trends of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay is critically important for management decisions about dredging, marsh restoration, flood control, contaminants, water clarity (in relation to primary production), and sea level rise. Several site-specific studies of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay have been conducted, but no synthesis of recent studies is available. The purpose of this report is to synthesize the best available data and knowledge to answer a few of the key study questions related to sediment supply to the Bay (listed below). This synthesis report was prepared jointly by the Regional Monitoring Program for Water Quality in San Francisco Bay (RMP) and the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) with funding from both organizations. The project is meant to be a step in the development of a more comprehensive sediment management and monitoring strategy for the Bay.