Understanding the Contributions of Paleo-Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes to Hydroclimate Extremes in the San Joaquin Valley of California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 13th, 2023

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 18th, 2023

Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | January 1st, 2014

The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Col

The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.

Unintended consequences of using maps to communicate sea-level rise

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 26th, 2024

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | February 12th, 2015

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions never

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for bench- marking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium.

Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 25th, 2025

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE- FO data to show that the continents have undergon

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE- FO data to show that the continents have undergone unprecedented TWS loss since 2002. Areas experiencing drying increased by twice the size of California annually, creating “mega-drying” regions across the Northern Hemisphere. While most of the world’s dry/wet areas continue to get drier/wetter, dry areas are now drying faster than wet areas are wetting. Changes in TWS are driven by high-latitude water losses, intense Central American/European droughts, and groundwater depletion, which accounts for 68% of TWS loss over non-glaciated continental regions. “Continental drying” is having profound global impacts. Since 2002, 75% of the population lives in 101 countries that have been losing freshwater water. Furthermore, the continents now contribute more freshwater to sea level rise than the ice sheets, and drying regions now contribute more than land glaciers and ice caps. Urgent action is required to prepare for the major impacts of results presented

Untapped Potential: An Assessment of Municipal and Industrial Water Efficiency Potential in the United States

Pacific Institute | October 28th, 2025

Water is one of our most precious and vital natural resources and is fundamental for human and ecological health and economic prosperity. Yet, water scarcity is a growing

Water is one of our most precious and vital natural resources and is fundamental for human and ecological health and economic prosperity. Yet, water scarcity is a growing risk for communities across the United States, due in part to natural hydrologic variability, population and economic growth, and the intensifying effects of climate change. The good news is that over the past several decades, communities across the United States have improved the efficiency of their water use, enabling growth and economic activity nationwide. Many communities have seen marked reductions in the amount of water used per person. For some, these reductions have been substantial enough that total water demand has peaked and declined even as the population and economy continue to grow. Even as traditional water sources are stressed, the opportunity to reduce demand through water efficiency remains both vast and largely untapped.

Urban Ecological Planning Guide for Santa Clara Valley

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | June 20th, 2019

Like most cities, the urbanized region of Santa Clara Valley is a challenging place for plants and animals to make a home. Largely covered with pavement, crisscrossed by

Like most cities, the urbanized region of Santa Clara Valley is a challenging place for plants and animals to make a home. Largely covered with pavement, crisscrossed by major freeways, and fragmented by a variety of land uses, the urban landscape creates barriers to the movement of wildlife and hostile environments for plants. While a small set of species tolerant of cities (such as pigeons and raccoons) can tolerate these difficult conditions, our cities have the potential to support much greater biodiversity. Urban greening projects are already occurring piecemeal across urban landscapes. Harnessing this momentum can help these efforts build greater benefits for biodiversity and for people.  Urban greening projects may take many forms, such as rain gardens beside roadways; bike trails with vegetated medians; planted and expanded riparian vegetation along stream corridors; and landscaping in corporate campuses, municipal parks and private gardens. While often driven by a narrow set of goals such as stormwater capture, public safety, shade, or beautification, these green spaces can be designed and coordinated to support enhanced biodiversity as well. Rain gardens can support native wetland plants, bike trail medians can support ribbons of wildflowers for native insects, street trees can shade pedestrians and provide acorns for birds and squirrels, and stream revegetation or daylighting projects can provide a reflective place for people and strengthen corridors for regional species movement. While each of these types of projects provides benefits, strategically designing these features to reflect ecologically-minded planning, and where possible, coordinating across the landscape, can provide value for humans and nature alike.  This document provides some of the scientific foundation needed to guide planning for urban biodiversity in the Santa Clara Valley region, grounded in an understanding of landscape history, urban ecology and local setting. It can be used to envision the ecological potential for individual urban greening projects, and to guide their siting, design and implementation. It also can be used to guide coordination of projects across the landscape, with the cooperation of a group of stakeholders (such as multiple agencies, cities and counties). Users of this report may include a wide range of entities, such as local nonprofits, public agencies, city planners, and applicants to the Open Space Authority’s Urban Open Space Grant Program.  This document is not intended to inform all aspects of site-specific planning. Much guidance on these topics is already available, and we reference some of those resources here. Rather, it is intended as a companion to existing materials, to inform a broader vision of how such site-scale projects can fit into the larger fabric of the Santa Clara Valley landscape. This document also recommends appropriate habitats and lists of their associated plants for the region, as well as general guidance on practical considerations related to project implementation. 

Urban Growth in California: Projecting Growth (2000–2050) Under Six Alternative Policy Scenarios and Assessing Impacts to Future Dispersal Corridors, Fire Threats, and Climate-Sensitive Agriculture

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

This paper documents the development of land use models that represent different urban growth policy scenarios for California, a contribution to the Public Interest Energ

This paper documents the development of land use models that represent different urban growth policy scenarios for California, a contribution to the Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Climate Vulnerability and Assessment Project of 2010–2011. The research team produced six UPlan model runs that portray the following policies as footprint scenarios to 2050: Business as Usual, Smart Growth, Fire Adaptation, Infill, Conservation of Projected Connectivity for Plant Movement under Climate Change, and Conservation of Vulnerable Agricultural Lands. This paper compares the outputs from these six scenarios on outputs from three other PIER vulnerability studies: biodiversity, fire return interval, and agricultural sensitivity. While not directly targeting any conservation or agricultural objective, the Infill scenario preserved more open space for other use than any of the other scenarios. The results suggest that combining Infill objectives with other open space goals will produce better conservation goals for those objectives than merely directing growth away from landscape elements of conservation interest.

Urban water affordability crisis exacerbated by climate change

NATure Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 8th, 2026