Urban Water Demand in California to 2100: Incorporating Climate Change

Pacific Institute | August 28th, 2012

Climate change will have significant impacts in California not just on water supply, but also on water demand. A new, free tool from the Pacific Institute* helps water

Climate change will have significant impacts in California not just on water supply, but also on water demand. A new, free tool from the Pacific Institute* helps water managers to forecast urban water demand with four global climate change models and compare different possible futures to the year 2100 by altering greenhouse gas emissions, population projections, conservation and efficiency measures, and more. The research shows climate change will cause increased water use in California’s cities and suburbs, even as water supply is expected to diminish. Urban water use – residential plus commercial, industrial, and institutional uses – accounts for over 20% of the water use in California, and up to half of urban water use is outdoors. The new report Urban Water Demand in California to 2100: Incorporating Climate Change describes how warming due to climate change is causing increases in water demand for landscapes, and will continue to drive up future water demand, particularly as more Californians settle in warmer, drier inland areas. The Pacific Institute ran a number of scenarios through 2100. The analysis finds that climate change alone could increase urban water demand in 2100 by 8% percent, or around 1 million acre-feet, under a medium-high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. That is the amount of water needed to satisfy the current household needs of 6.7 million Californians. “A million acre-feet of water is significant, and, of course, climate is not the only driver affecting demand. But factoring levels of climate change into the mix is critical,” said Dr. Juliet Christian-Smith of the Pacific Institute Water Program. “Future water use in California depends on a range of factors – technological, political, and economic – many of which are uncertain, but water utilities still need to plan. We created a flexible modeling tool that allows users to run their own scenarios, comparing how a range of factors in a range of climate change scenarios is likely to affect future patterns of water use in their specific areas.”

Urban Water Revolution: Sustainable Water Futures for California Cities

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | July 15th, 2020

California has consistently altered natural water resources to provide water for its growing population and to support the fifth largest economy in the world. However, th

California has consistently altered natural water resources to provide water for its growing population and to support the fifth largest economy in the world. However, the old ways of coping with the California’s urban water needs—overdraft of groundwater, stream depletion, and greater imports—will no longer meet the demands of the 21st century. We examine California’s water history and present several promising solutions to the challenge of urban water security: a combination of conservation and efficiency, desalination, stormwater capture, water re-use, and water banking. These options for urban water, including direct potable reuse, will help dry cities in California and elsewhere achieve more sustainable and diversified water supply portfolios. Pilot and demonstration-scale projects, along with innovations in systems management and new regulations, point the way toward more resilient water supplies for dry cities. Movement toward regional collaboration, implementation of new technologies, and new regulatory regimes are helping to realize a one-water vision. Different cities will develop their own water supply portfolio options appropriate for their geography, values, and urban form on a path toward meeting the urban water challenges of this century.

Urban Water Systems—A Conceptual Framework

I.B. Tauris (Bloomsbury) | December 1st, 2014

We will here show how a focus on water/urban relationships can further our knowledge of city developments, and how urban studies can deepen our understanding of the rol

We will here show how a focus on water/urban relationships can further our knowledge of city developments, and how urban studies can deepen our understanding of the role of water in societies. The basic premises for this proposal are two facts of huge importance for understanding the history and development of the city; the universal needs of water and the actual, physical waterscape at a given place. All urban dwellers1—from the first few people who settled around a natural spring in a desert in Jericho and built a wall around it almost 10,000 years ago, to the Incas living in the royal city Machu Picchu on a mountain top in the Andes, to stock traders relaxing in spacious apartments in a skyscraper on Manhattan, and to the party officials assembled for one of their meetings in a grand conference hall in Beijing—share the need for one resource: water. The theoretical and empirical importance of this state of affairs can hardly be overestimated: these people all need water to survive, and as long as they live in cities, it has to be provided in one way or another. Water is the only universal urban resource that in this sense is a must and that can be controlled in this strict understanding of the word.

Utah's Land, Water and Air 2022 Report to the Governor

Utah State University | November 30th, 2022

Utah's Land, Water and Air 2023 Report to the Governor and Legislature

Utah State University | October 19th, 2023

This report serves as a 2023 snapshot of key issues and concerns with Utah’s shared resources. It highlights gathered data that is available to provide context to thes

This report serves as a 2023 snapshot of key issues and concerns with Utah’s shared resources. It highlights gathered data that is available to provide context to these issues, as well as identifies areas where more study is needed. Addressing these challenges will enable Utah policymakers to make informed decisions for the future. Under the authorship of 43 researchers and experts and the general guidance of 49 advisory committee members, the report outlines 32 issues and trends to pay attention to in the coming months and years.

Vegetation Responses to 2012–2016 Drought in Northern and Southern California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 7th, 2019

In this study, we investigated California vegetation responses to the recent prolonged 2012–2016 drought, which was potentially the driest 4‐year span in the last 1,2

In this study, we investigated California vegetation responses to the recent prolonged 2012–2016 drought, which was potentially the driest 4‐year span in the last 1,200 years. The overall vegetation of the state has been presumed to be severely affected. However, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite data related to vegetation greenness show that the large‐scale drought impacts on observable vegetation health were principally focused in Southern California regions, where the vegetation communities experienced striking declines in greenness. By contrast, some areas of Northern California have demonstrated significant NDVI increase and this difference in NDVI trends is evident over the past 19 years. The distinct vegetation behavior in Northern and Southern California seems to be related to a climatic dipole in the western United States, which is influenced by the large‐scale ocean‐atmosphere interactions. Some climate models predict an extension of such a dipole with greater precipitation in Northern California and less in Southern California by the end of the 21st century. Increased water demand in the south could intensify statewide intersectoral and interregional water competition in the future. However, increasing drought damage to wildlands and their terrestrial ecosystems in the south will not be relieved by any type of traditional water reallocation and irrigation effort.

Warming accelerates global drought severity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 4th, 2025

Drought is one of the most common and complex natural hazards affecting the environment, economies and populations globally. However, there are significant uncertainties

Drought is one of the most common and complex natural hazards affecting the environment, economies and populations globally. However, there are significant uncertainties in global drought trends and a limited understanding of the extent to which a key driver, atmospheric evaporative demand (AED), impacts the recent evolution of the magnitude, frequency, duration and areal extent of droughts. Here, by developing an ensemble of high-resolution global drought datasets for 1901–2022, we find an increasing trend in drought severity worldwide. Our findings suggest that AED has increased drought severity by an average of 40% globally. Not only are typically dry regions becoming drier but also wet areas are experiencing drying trends. During the past 5 years (2018–2022), the areas in drought have expanded by 74% on average compared with 1981–2017, with AED contributing to 58% of this increase. The year 2022 was record-breaking, with 30% of the global land area affected by moderate and extreme droughts, 42% of which was attributed to increased AED. Our findings indicate that AED has an increasingly important role in driving severe droughts and that this tendency will likely continue under future warming scenarios.

Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 8th, 2026

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwat

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwater–streamflow interactions above 2,500 m, new measurements in the Upper Colorado River headwaters indicate declining groundwater storage that is dated decades to millennia old. Here we use integrated hydrologic modelling spanning water years 2015–2021 to determine whether the loss of old-age groundwater buffers streamflow during low-snow years and whether that loss is exacerbated with warming. Results show that old-groundwater contributions to streams remain relatively steady through time, unlike the more variable contributions from young groundwater. Numerical experiments of increased surface air temperatures (+2.5 °C and +4 °C) increase rain–snow fractions and evapotranspiration and decrease runoff ratio by 2–3% per degree Celsius increase. As streamflow declines with warming, the age of groundwater supporting it gets older, in part owing to intermediate-aged (1–3 year) groundwater declining twice as fast. Simulations show that water table depths at higher elevations (>3,700 m) decline disproportionately and fail to recover even during wet years. These findings suggest altered groundwater–streamflow interactions with warming and snow loss, with implications for water resources.

Water & Power Rates Request 2016-2020 Frequently Asked Questions

Los Angeles Department of Water & Power (LADWP) | January 21st, 2016

Water Accounting in Western US, Australia, and Spain: Comparative Analysis

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | January 10th, 2020