2020 Review Water Quality Standards for Salinity Colorado River System

Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum (CRBSCF) | October 1st, 2020

This document is a review of the water quality standards for salinity in the Colorado River. Section 303 of the Clean Water Act amendments to the Federal Water Pollution

This document is a review of the water quality standards for salinity in the Colorado River. Section 303 of the Clean Water Act amendments to the Federal Water Pollution Control Act require that water quality standards are reviewed every three years. Accordingly, the seven-state Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum has reviewed the existing state-adopted and EPA-approved water quality standards for salinity consisting of numeric criteria and a Plan of Implementation. Upon adoption by the Forum, this Review will be submitted to the governors of each of the Basin States for inclusion in their state water quality standards.

2022 Drought Response Operations Plan

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | April 20th, 2022

21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 3rd, 2018

Greenhouse gas-induced climate change is expected to lead to negative hydrological impacts for southwestern North America, including California (CA). This includes a decr

Greenhouse gas-induced climate change is expected to lead to negative hydrological impacts for southwestern North America, including California (CA). This includes a decrease in the amount and frequency of precipitation, reductions in Sierra snow pack, and an increase in evapotranspiration, all of which imply a decline in surface water availability, and an increase in drought and stress on water resources. However, a recent study showed the importance of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming and an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like teleconnection in driving an increase in CA precipitation through the 21st century, particularly during winter (DJF). Here, we extend this prior work and show wetter (drier) CA conditions, based on several drought metrics, are associated with an El Niño (La Niña)-like SST pattern. Models that better simulate the observed ENSO-CA precipitation teleconnection also better simulate the ENSO-CA drought relationships, and yield negligible change in the risk of 21st century CA drought, primarily due to wetting during winter. Seasonally, however, CA drought risk is projected to increase during the non-winter months, particularly in the models that poorly simulate the observed teleconnection. Thus, future projections of CA drought are dependent on model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection. As opposed to focusing on adapting to less water, models that better simulate the teleconnection imply adaptation measures focused on smoothing seasonal differences for affected agricultural, terrestrial, and aquatic systems, as well as effectively capturing enhanced winter runoff.

A Common Vision for the Colorado River System: Toward a Framework for Sustainability

Water and Tribes Initiative | October 5th, 2020

A hydrological simulation dataset of the Upper Colorado River Basin from 1983 to 2019

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 20th, 2022

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is one of the most over-allocated basins in the world. It provides water for 40 million people in Colorado and downstream states of

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is one of the most over-allocated basins in the world. It provides water for 40 million people in Colorado and downstream states of Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah. However, the UCRB water capacity is decreasing as a combined result of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Understanding the dynamic of the UCRB water cycle is crucial for long-term and short-term water resources management.

A Literature Review and Hypsometric Analysis to Support Decisions on Trout Management Flows on the Colorado River Downstream from Glen Canyon Dam

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 7th, 2024

Fish stranding has been studied in select rivers worldwide, often with the purpose of determining how to mitigate adverse effects of dam operations on highly valued salmo

Fish stranding has been studied in select rivers worldwide, often with the purpose of determining how to mitigate adverse effects of dam operations on highly valued salmon and trout populations. However, where a reduction in trout population size is desired by resource managers, as is the case downstream of the Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, flow manipulations termed trout management flows (TMFs) may be used to optimize fish stranding and mortality. To inform the design and implementation of potential future TMFs, we reviewed relevant literature to identify key factors that influence fish stranding. We found that key factors were highly interdependent and site-specific, but general trends suggest that down-ramping (decreasing flow) at rapid rates in daytime during the late spring to summer emergence period would lead to stranding of age-0 rainbow trout in shallow shoreline habitat. A hypsometric analysis was then used to predict stranding risk for age-0 rainbow trout in Glen Canyon for a range of TMFs, which incorporated existing bathymetric data and flow and habitat suitability models. Our results indicate that a TMF with a steady high flow ranging from 12,000 to 16,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) combined with a minimum flow ranging from 3,000 to 5,000 ft3/s may effectively strand age-0 fish while also minimizing risk to water storage in Lake Powell and other resources. This strategy implemented under normal hydropeaking operations was predicted to lead to a substantive stranding risk when paired with low flows of 5,000 ft3/s, and especially 3,000 ft3/s. However, there remains uncertainty associated with elements of implementing an effective TMF downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. The main uncertainties include (1) the down-ramp rate that maximizes stranding of age-0 trout, (2) the duration of drawdown to maximize stranding mortality while minimizing impact to downstream resources, (3) duration of high flows required for age-0 fish to colonize newly created shoreline habitat (this is only for certain TMF hydrographs), (4) number of repetitions of TMF cycles to minimize compensatory survival response, and (5) recruitment threshold of both rainbow and brown trout populations to trigger TMF implementation.

A low-to-no snow future and its impacts on water resources in the western United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 26th, 2021

Anthropogenic climate change is decreasing seasonal snowpacks globally, with potentially catastrophic consequences on water resources, given the long-held reliance on sno

Anthropogenic climate change is decreasing seasonal snowpacks globally, with potentially catastrophic consequences on water resources, given the long-held reliance on snowpack in water management. In this Review, we examine the changes and trickle-down impacts of snow loss in the western United States (WUS). Across the WUS, snow water equivalent declines of ~25% are expected by 2050, with losses comparable with contemporary historical trends. There is less consensus on the time horizon of snow disappearance, but model projections combined with a new low-to-no snow definition suggest ~35–60 years before low-to-no snow becomes persistent if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Diminished and more ephemeral snowpacks that melt earlier will alter groundwater and streamflow dynamics. The direction of these changes are difficult to constrain given competing factors such as higher evapotranspiration, altered vegetation composition and changes in wildfire behaviour in a warmer world. These changes undermine conventional WUS water management practices, but through proactive implementation of soft and hard adaptation strategies, there is potential to build resilience to extreme, episodic and, eventually, persistent low-to-no snow conditions. Federal investments offer a timely opportunity to address these vulnerabilities, but they require a concerted portfolio of activities that cross historically siloed physical and disciplinary boundaries.

A Multidataset Assessment of Climatic Drivers and Uncertainties of Recent Trends in Evaporative Demand across the Continental United States

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | April 1st, 2022

Increased atmospheric evaporative demand has important implications for humans and ecosystems in water-scarce lands. While temperature plays a significant role in drivin

Increased atmospheric evaporative demand has important implications for humans and ecosystems in water-scarce lands. While temperature plays a significant role in driving evaporative demand and its trend, other climate variables are also influential and their contributions to recent trends in evaporative demand are unknown. We address this gap with an assessment of recent (1980–2020) trends in annual reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and its drivers across the continental United States based on five gridded datasets. In doing so, we characterize the structural uncertainty of ETo trends and decompose the relative influences of temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and humidity. Results highlight large and robust changes in ETo across much of the western United States, centered on the Rio Grande region where ETo increased 135–235 mm during 1980–2020. The largest uncertainties in ETo trends are in the central and eastern United States and surrounding the Upper Colorado River. Trend decomposition highlights the strong and widespread influence of temperature, which contributes to 57% of observed ETo trends, on average. ETo increases are mitigated by increases in specific humidity in non-water-limited regions, while small decreases in specific humidity and increases in wind speed and solar radiation magnify ETo increases across the West. Our results show increases in ETo across the West that are already emerging outside the range of variability observed 20–40 years ago. Our results suggest that twenty-first-century land and water managers need to plan for an already increasing influence of evaporative demand on water availability and wildfire risks. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Increased atmospheric thirst due to climate warming has the potential to decrease water availability and increase wildfire risks in water-scarce regions. Here, we identified how much atmospheric thirst has changed across the continental United States over the past 40 years, what climate variables are driving the change, and how consistent these changes are among five data sources. We found that atmospheric thirst is consistently emerging outside the range experienced in the late twentieth century in some western regions with 57% of the change driven by temperature. Importantly, we demonstrate that increased atmospheric thirst has already become a persistent forcing of western landscapes and water supplies toward drought and will be an essential consideration for land and water management planning going forward.

A multiscale model for El Niño complexity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 11th, 2022

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscal

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be explained by combining intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal processes. The model starts with a deterministic three-region system for the interannual variabilities. Then two stochastic processes of the intraseasonal and decadal variation are incorporated. The model can reproduce not only the general properties of the observed ENSO events, but also the complexity in patterns (e.g., Central Pacific vs. Eastern Pacific events), intensity (e.g., 10–20 year reoccurrence of extreme El Niños), and temporal evolution (e.g., more multi-year La Niñas than multi-year El Niños). While conventional conceptual models were typically used to understand the dynamics behind the common properties of ENSO, this model offers a powerful tool to understand and predict ENSO complexity that challenges our understanding of the twenty-first century ENSO.

A Review of the Hydrologic Response Mechanisms During Mountain Rain-on-Snow

Frontiers in Earth Science (Frontiers) | April 26th, 2022

Mountain rain-on-snow (ROS) generates large flooding events worldwide. Climate warming will enhance the frequency, magnitude, and widespread nature of these events. Past

Mountain rain-on-snow (ROS) generates large flooding events worldwide. Climate warming will enhance the frequency, magnitude, and widespread nature of these events. Past studies indicate rainfall, not snowmelt, typically drives much of the runoff response during ROS. However, there is substantial event-to-event variability—resulting from shifting atmospheric drivers and nuanced physical mechanisms governing water flow through a snowpack. Historically, turbulent fluxes were assumed to dominate the energy balance for snowmelt during ROS. Recent research nonetheless suggests that other components of the energy balance might be larger drivers depending on: 1) the time of year; 2) the elevation; and 3) the aspect of the slope. This mini review summarizes the literature on the physical processes governing ROS and proposes that moving forward we utilize the terms “active” and “passive” to describe a snowpack’s contribution (via snowmelt) to terrestrial water input (TWI) during ROS. Active snowpacks readily contribute meltwater to TWI via the energy balance, bolstering rainfall-runoff totals. Passive snowpacks do not melt, but simply convey rainwater through the snow matrix. In both snowpack cases, preferential flow paths enhance transmissivity. This proposed classification scheme will help researchers and water managers better communicate and interpret past findings, and aid in forecasting discussions of future events.