South Coast

Procedures to evaluate sea-level change: impacts, responses, and adaptation

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | June 30th, 2014

Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the Third Generation CoSMoSModel

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (MDPI) | May 24th, 2018

Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the susta

Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managers need local-scale hazards projections using the best available climate and coastal science. In collaboration with leading scientists world-wide, the USGS designed the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) to assess the coastal impacts of climate change for the California coast, including the combination of sea-level rise, storms, and coastal change. In this project, we directly address the needs of coastal resource managers in Southern California by integrating a vast range of global climate change projections in a thorough and comprehensive numerical modeling framework. In Part 1 of a two-part submission on CoSMoS, methods and the latest improvements are discussed, and an example of hazard projections is presented. Click here for Part 2.

Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (MDPI) | July 2nd, 2018

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 16.0 km2) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy-makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.

Projected Brackish Water Desalination Projects in California

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | February 20th, 2024

California’s Water Supply Strategy: Adapting to a Hotter, Drier Future (Water Supply Strategy), adopted by the Newsom Administration in 2022, identifies multiple action

California’s Water Supply Strategy: Adapting to a Hotter, Drier Future (Water Supply Strategy), adopted by the Newsom Administration in 2022, identifies multiple actions necessary to bolster water supply reliability in the face of climate change. The first set of actions drive the development of new water supplies and set explicit goals for expanding the production of both recycled and desalinated water. Action 1.2 includes specific targets for expanded brackish water desalination: 28,000 acre-feet by 2030, and 84,000 acre-feet by 2040. The Water Supply Strategy identifies five steps toward achieving this goal.

Projected responses of the coastal water table for California using present-day and future sea-level rise scenarios

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 11th, 2020

Coastal groundwater levels (heads) can increase with sea level rise (SLR) where shallow groundwater floats on underlying seawater. In some areas coastal groundwater could

Coastal groundwater levels (heads) can increase with sea level rise (SLR) where shallow groundwater floats on underlying seawater. In some areas coastal groundwater could rise almost as much as SLR, but where rising groundwater intersects surface drainage features, the increase will be less. Numerical modeling can provide insight into coastal areas that may be more or less vulnerable to hazards associated with SLR-driven groundwater shoaling (moving closer to the ground surface) and emergence (flooding the ground surface), providing coastal planners with critical information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources in complex coastal settings. Seamless unconfined groundwater heads for coastal California groundwater systems were modeled with homogeneous, steady-state MODFLOW simulations. The geographic extent examined was limited primarily to low-elevation (land surface less than approximately 10 m above mean sea level) areas. In areas where coastal elevations increase rapidly (e.g., bluff stretches), the model boundary was set approximately 1 kilometer inland of the present-day shoreline. Steady-state MODFLOW groundwater flow models were used to obtain detailed (10-meter-scale) predictions over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of groundwater heads for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios (0 to 2 meters (m) in 0.25 m increments, 2.5 m, 3 m, and 5 m) using a range of horizontal hydraulic conductivity (Kh) scenarios (0.1, 1, and 10 m/day). For each SLR/Kh combination, results are provided for two marine boundary conditions; local mean sea level (LMSL) and mean higher-high water (MHHW), and for two model versions. In the first model version, groundwater reaching the land surface is removed from the model, simulating loss via natural drainage. In the second model version, SLR impacts are modeled by simply raising the present-day (SLR 0m) modeled groundwater head by the amount of sea-level rise, simulating the worst-case "linear" response to sea-level rise. Modeled groundwater heads were then subtracted from high-resolution topographic digital elevation model (DEM) data to obtain water table depths. Groundwater head and water table depths are presented in raster GeoTIFF format. Polygon shapefiles also present water table depths by depth range (emergent, 0 to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 5, and greater than 5 meters depth). All results are presented by County.

Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 21st, 2022

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid-dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California’s coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California’s Central Valley.

Property Prices in Peril

First Street | February 3rd, 2025

Regional desirability is being reshaped by chronic changes in climate across the country: coastal areas are increasingly threatened by sea level rise, while inland region

Regional desirability is being reshaped by chronic changes in climate across the country: coastal areas are increasingly threatened by sea level rise, while inland regions face intensifying heat waves, droughts, and floods. At the same time, the increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters has triggered unprecedented levels of property damage, prompting insurance providers to increase premiums or withdraw coverage from high-risk areas altogether. Chronic climate changes create additional financial burdens – from surging utility bills to increased maintenance costs. Ultimately, environmental stressors and associated rising homeownership costs are together reshaping home values. With residential real estate representing one of the largest economic sectors in the country, these shifts will result in serious impacts that ripple through communities. Understanding these dynamics is crucial as public and private stakeholders navigate an increasingly complex landscape where housing decisions must balance traditional location value drivers with new climate realities.

Public Review Draft Report to the Legislature on the Results of the Indoor Residential Water Use Study

Publisher not available | May 11th, 2021

Water planning has always been important for urban retail water suppliers (Suppliers) but is even more critical today, as development progresses and California grapples w

Water planning has always been important for urban retail water suppliers (Suppliers) but is even more critical today, as development progresses and California grapples with frequent droughts and expected long-term climate impacts. Prior to the adoption of the Urban Water Management Planning (UWMP) Act in 1983, there were no specific requirements that mandated urban water suppliers to conduct long-term water resources planning. While many Suppliers did conduct long-term water planning, those that did not were more vulnerable to supply disruptions during dry periods and catastrophic events. Urban water management planning is needed at the local level because only local Suppliers have the knowledge and ability to tailor their planning to their unique conditions and involve their local community in the planning effort. Click here for the DWR press release

Pulse Flows Component of the Water Storage Investment Program Groundwater Projects Supplemental Environmental Impact Report

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | July 30th, 2024

This final supplemental environmental impact report (Final SEIR) has been prepared for the Pulse Flows Component of the Water Storage Investment Program (WSIP) Groundwate

This final supplemental environmental impact report (Final SEIR) has been prepared for the Pulse Flows Component of the Water Storage Investment Program (WSIP) Groundwater Projects (Pulse Flows Component). The Final SEIR is a supplement to three certified environmental impact reports (EIRs) prepared pursuant to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) for three independent WSIP projects (referred to herein as the “WSIP Groundwater Projects”): (1) the Chino Basin Program, (2) the Kern Fan Groundwater Storage Project (Kern Fan), and (3) the Willow Springs Water Bank Project (Willow Springs).

Pumping for the masses: evolution of groundwater management in metropolitan Los Angeles

Geo Journal (Springer) | August 7th, 2015

Groundwater supports many aspects of human life. In cities, groundwater can provide a cost-effective source of water for drinking and industrial uses, while groundwater b

Groundwater supports many aspects of human life. In cities, groundwater can provide a cost-effective source of water for drinking and industrial uses, while groundwater basins provide storage. The role of groundwater in a city’s water supply tends to change over time. In the Los Angeles metropolitan area, groundwater is critical. Over decades, users in the region’s many basins allocated annual pumping rights to groundwater among users through adjudications. These rights were determined through collective processes over decades, which contributed to the complex array of public and private organizations involved in water management. The rights also continue to evolve. We analyzed changes in the distribution of groundwater rights over time for adjudicated basins in Southern Los Angeles County. Results indicate that groundwater rights are increasingly: (1) controlled or regulated by public institutions and municipalities, and (2) consolidated among larger users. Yet, both the percentage of total supplies provided by groundwater, as well as the distribution of groundwater rights, varies widely among cities and communities throughout Los Angeles. As metropolitan Los Angeles faces reduced water imports and emphasizes local water reliance, access to pumping rights and storage capacity in groundwater basins will become even more vital. We discuss implications of our results for future urban water management.