San Joaquin River

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2020

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 31st, 2021

Water Year (WY) 2020 continued to demonstrate the climate change narrative of greater variability and more extremes. In both precipitation and temperature, there were ne

Water Year (WY) 2020 continued to demonstrate the climate change narrative of greater variability and more extremes. In both precipitation and temperature, there were new extremes with a very dry February and very hot end to the water year. Late fall precipitation onset continued with the first significant storm of the year arriving in late November. The WY ended with 67 percent of average precipitation statewide and 62 percent of average in the Northern Sierra. For runoff, the Sacramento Basin had 66 percent of average April-July streamflow while the San Joaquin Basin had 58 percent of average. Peak statewide snowpack was 62 percent of average reaching that point in early April with a late season storm providing some offset to the winter’s dryness. February was one of the big stories of WY 2020 with record low precipitation. In a year of extremes, August and September also contributed record warmth for the month including a 130-degree Fahrenheit reading at Death Valley on August 16, 2020. This observation, if verified by the World Meteorological Organization, would be one of the hottest daily temperature maximums recorded on Earth. Several cities set new records for days above 90 degrees as well.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2021

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 31st, 2022

Water year (WY) 2021 added to the climate change narrative with extreme dryness leading to record setting drought conditions. In both precipitation and temperature, there

Water year (WY) 2021 added to the climate change narrative with extreme dryness leading to record setting drought conditions. In both precipitation and temperature, there were new extremes with a record dry and warm spring being most notable. Late fall onset occurred again this year arriving in late November starting the seasonal snowpack on very dry soils. The WY ended with 48 percent of average precipitation statewide making it the second driest year in 126 years of record. It was also second warmest for statewide average temperature. For two-year totals, WY 2021 set a record, recording less precipitation than WY 1977. There was only one significant storm in the WY in late January which included low elevation snow and very strong damaging winds. The April 1 statewide snowpack registered 62% of average. Peak snowpack at 64% of average occurred the week before April 1. Runoff from the snowpack was far below expectations due to the dry antecedent conditions and record dry and warm spring. The lack of runoff resulted in the need for emergency drought response measures.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2022

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 1st, 2024

Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 9th, 2025

Hydrodynamic Model Development Report: Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and Suisun Bay (Water Year 2016)

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | December 13th, 2019

This report describes work related to hydrodynamic model development for the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary, undertaken as part of a broader eort to develop and apply co

This report describes work related to hydrodynamic model development for the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary, undertaken as part of a broader eort to develop and apply coupled biogeochemical-hydrodynamic models to inform nutrient management decisions. The primary intended application of the hydrodynamic model output is for use as input to an offline coupled biogeochemical model to simulate a wide range of state variables and processes, including: advective and dispersive transport, nutrient transformations, phytoplankton production, benthic and pelagic grazing, sediment diagenesis, and oxygen cycling.

Hydrodynamics and habitat interact to structure fish communities within terminal channels of a tidal freshwater delta

Ecological Society of America (Wiley) | January 13th, 2023

Terminal channels were historically a common feature of tidal delta ecosystems but have become increasingly rare as landscapes have been modified. Tidal hydrodynamics are

Terminal channels were historically a common feature of tidal delta ecosystems but have become increasingly rare as landscapes have been modified. Tidal hydrodynamics are a defining feature in tidal terminal channel ecosystems from which native aquatic communities have evolved. However, few studies have explored the relationship between fish community structure and hydrodynamics in these tidal terminal channel ecosystems. We sampled fish communities throughout a network of terminal channels within the northeasternmost region of the San Francisco Estuary to determine the relationship between fish community structure and hydrodynamics within these environments. We collected two years (2017 and 2018) of fish community samples using gill nets and analyzed data using multivariate community analyses and count models. We found metrics of fish diversity and counts of native fishes to be greatest upstream (farthest from tidal influence) of the tidal excursion within terminal channels. Counts of non-native fishes were less affected by this hydrodynamic feature of terminal channels and more tightly correlated to local habitat conditions (e.g., water temperature, depth). Our results suggest that channel hydrodynamics plays a role in structuring fish communities within terminal channels, particularly native fishes. These results indicate that hydrodynamics in tidal delta ecosystems may be able to be altered in ways that benefit native fishes without the cost of water pumping.

Hydroeconomic modeling of sustainable groundwater management

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 23rd, 2017

In 2014, California passed legislation requiring the sustainable management of critically over-drafted groundwater basins, located primarily in the Central Valley agricu

In 2014, California passed legislation requiring the sustainable management of critically over-drafted groundwater basins, located primarily in the Central Valley agricultural region. Hydroeconomic modeling of the agricultural economy, groundwater, and surface water systems is critically important to simulate potential transition paths to sustainable management of the basins. The requirement for sustainable groundwater use by 2040 is mandated for many overdrafted groundwater basins that are decoupled from environmental and river flow effects. We argue that, for such cases, a modeling approach that integrates a biophysical response function from a hydrologic model into an economic model of groundwater use is preferable to embedding an economic response function in a complex hydrologic model as is more commonly done. Using this preferred approach, we develop a dynamic hydroeconomic model for the Kings and Tulare Lake subbasins of California and evaluate three groundwater management institutions—open access, perfect foresight, and managed pumping. We quantify the costs and benefits of sustainable groundwater management, including energy pumping savings, drought reserve values, and avoided capital costs. Our analysis finds that, for basins that are severely depleted, losses in crop net revenue are offset by the benefits of energy savings, drought reserve value, and avoided capital costs. This finding provides an empirical counter example to the Gisser and Sanchez Effect.

Hydrogeologic Characterization of the Modesto Area, San Joaquin Valley, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 19th, 2004

Hydrogeologic characterization was done to develop an understanding of the hydrogeologic setting near Modesto by maximizing the use of existing data and building on previ

Hydrogeologic characterization was done to develop an understanding of the hydrogeologic setting near Modesto by maximizing the use of existing data and building on previous work in the region. A substantial amount of new lithologic and hydrologic data are available that allow a more complete and updated characterization of the aquifer system. In this report, geologic units are described, a database of well characteristics and lithology is developed and used to update the regional stratigraphy, a water budget is estimated for water year 2000, a three-dimensional spatial correlation map of aquifer texture is created, and recommendations for future data collection are summarized. The general physiography of the study area is reflected in the soils. The oldest soils, which have low permeability, exist in terrace deposits, in the interfan areas between the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced Rivers, at the distal end of the fans, and along the San Joaquin River floodplain. The youngest soils have high permeability and generally have been forming on the recently deposited alluvium along the major stream channels. Geologic materials exposed or penetrated by wells in the Modesto area range from pre-Cretaceous rocks to recent alluvium; however, water-bearing materials are mostly Late Tertiary and Quaternary in age. A database containing information from more than 3,500 drillers’ logs was constructed to organize information on well characteristics and subsurface lithology in the study area. The database was used in conjunction with a limited number of geophysical logs and county soil maps to define the stratigraphic framework of the study area. Sequences of red paleosols were identified in the database and used as stratigraphic boundaries. Associated with these paleosols are very coarse grained incised valley-fill deposits. Some geophysical well logs and other sparse well information suggest the presence of one of these incised valley-fill deposits along and adjacent to the Tuolumne River east of Modesto, a feature that may have important implications for ground-water flow and transport in the region. Although extensive work has been done by earlier investigators to define the structure of the Modesto area aquifer system, this report has resulted in some modification to the lateral extent of the Corcoran Clay and the regional dip of the Mehrten Formation. Well logs in the database indicating the presence of the Corcoran Clay were used to revise the eastern extent of the Corcoran Clay, which lies approximately parallel to the axis of valley. The Mehrten Formation is distinguished in the well-log database by its characteristic black sands consisting of predominantly andesitic fragments. Black sands in wells listed in the database indicate that the formation may lie as shallow as 120 meters (400 feet) below land surface under Modesto, approximately 90 meters (300 feet) shallower than previously thought. The alluvial aquifer system in the Modesto area comprises an unconfined to semiconfined aquifer above and east of the Corcoran Clay confining unit and a confined aquifer beneath the Corcoran Clay. The unconfined aquifer is composed of alluvial sediments of the Modesto, Riverbank, and upper Turlock Lake formations. The unconfined aquifer east of the Corcoran Clay becomes semiconfined with depth due to the numerous discontinuous clay lenses and extensive paleosols throughout the aquifer thickness. The confined aquifer is composed primarily of alluvial sediments of the Turlock Lake and upper Mehrten Formations, extending from beneath the Corcoran Clay to the base of fresh water. Groundwater in the unconfined to semiconfined aquifer flows to the west and southwest. The primary source of present-day recharge is percolating excess irrigation water. The primary ground-water discharge is extensive ground-water pumping in the unconfined to semiconfined aquifer, imposing a significant component of vertical flow in the system. A water budget was calculated for water year 2000 using a land-use approach. During water year 2000, the total water supply in the Modesto area was more than 2.5 billion m3 (cubic meter) (2 million acre-ft [acre-foot]). Surface-water deliveries accounted for 60 percent of the total water supply, whereas ground-water pumpage accounted for 40 percent. Ninety-four percent of the water supply was used to meet irrigation demand and approximately 6 percent was used to meet urban demand. The total recharge in the model area was estimated at 1.4 billion m3 (1,100,000 acre-ft). The largest component of recharge is from excess irrigation water (58 percent); precipitation in excess of crop requirements accounted for 41 percent of the recharge. Geostatistical methods were used to develop a spatial correlation model of the percentage of coarse-grained texture in the Modesto area. The mean percentage coarse-grained texture calculated for each depth increment indicates a regional trend of decreasing coarse-grained texture with increasing depth, which is consistent with increasingly consolidated sediments with depth in the study area. The three-dimensional kriged estimates of percentage coarse-grained texture show significant heterogeneity in the texture of the sedimentary deposits. Assuming the hydraulic conductivity is correlated to the texture, the kriged result implies significant heterogeneity in the hydrogeologic framework.

Hydrologic Model of the Modesto Region, California, 1960–2004

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | June 1st, 2015

Strategies for managing water supplies and groundwater quality in the Modesto region of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, are being formulated and evaluated by

Strategies for managing water supplies and groundwater quality in the Modesto region of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, are being formulated and evaluated by the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association. Management issues and goals in the basin include an area in the lower part of the basin that requires drainage of the shallow water table to sustain agriculture, intra- and inter-basin migration of poor-quality groundwater, and efficient management of surface and groundwater supplies. To aid in the evaluation of water-management strategies, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association have developed a hydrologic model that simulates monthly groundwater and surface-water flow as governed by aquifer-system properties, annual and seasonal variations in climate, surface-water flow and availability, water use, and land use. The model was constructed by using the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater-modeling software MODFLOW-OWHM with the Farm Process. Available measurements of groundwater pumped for municipal, irrigation, and drainage purposes are specified in the model, as are deliveries of surface water. Private irrigation pumping and recharge associated with agricultural land use were estimated by using the Farm Process in MODFLOW-OWHM, which simulates landscape processes associated with irrigated agriculture and other land uses. The distribution of hydraulic conductivity in the aquifer system was constrained by using data from more than 3,500 drillers’ logs. The model was calibrated to 4,061 measured groundwater levels in 109 wells and 2,739 mean monthly surface-water flows measured at 6 streamgages during 1960–2004 by using a semi-automated method of parameter estimation. The model fit to groundwater levels was good, with an absolute mean residual of 0.8 feet; 74 percent of simulated heads were within 10 feet of those observed. The model fit to streamflow was biased low, but reasonable overall; the absolute mean residual of streamflow was 780 cubic feet per second, and 68 percent of simulated streamflows were within 500 cubic feet per second of observed. Hydrographs both of groundwater levels and streamflow indicated overall an acceptable fit to observed trends. Simulated private agricultural pumpage ranged from about 780,000 to 1,380,000 acre-feet per year and averaged about 1,000,000 acre-feet per year from 1960 to 2004. Simulated deep percolation, or groundwater recharge from precipitation and irrigation, varied with climate and land use from about 1,100,000 to 1,700,000 acre-feet per year, averaging 1,360,000 acre-feet per year. Key limitations of the model with respect to estimating these large components of the water budget are the uncertainty associated with actual irrigation deliveries and irrigation efficiencies and the lack of metered data for private agricultural groundwater pumping. Different assumptions with respect to irrigation deliveries and efficiencies, and other model input, would result in different estimates of private agricultural groundwater use. The simulated exchange between groundwater and surface water was a small percentage of streamflow, typically ranging within a loss or gain of about 2 cubic feet per second per mile. The simulated exchange compared reasonably with limited independent estimates available, but substantial uncertainty is associated with these estimates.

Hydrology and Hydrodynamics on the Sacramento River Near the Fremont Weir, California—Implications for Juvenile Salmon Entrainment Estimates

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | November 9th, 2018

Estimates of fish entrainment on the Sacramento River near the Fremont Weir are a critical component in determining the feasibility and design of a proposed notch in the

Estimates of fish entrainment on the Sacramento River near the Fremont Weir are a critical component in determining the feasibility and design of a proposed notch in the weir to increase access to the Yolo Bypass, a seasonal floodplain of the Sacramento River. Detailed hydrodynamic and velocity measurements were made at a river bend near the Fremont Weir in the winter and spring of 2016 to examine backwater conditions and estimate the hydraulic entrainment zone, a zone where fish would be predicted to be entrained into the notch. Secondary circulation near the river bend was shown to shift the velocity and discharge distributions toward the outside of the bend. Variability in the stage-discharge relation was shown to be the biggest source of uncertainty in determining the location of the hydraulic entrainment zone. Outflow from the Sutter Bypass and high flow on the Feather River resulted in backwater conditions near the Fremont Weir about 25 percent of the time over the 27-year period from April 1990–April 2017. Velocity measurements used to estimate the critical streakline position (the outer edge of the hydraulic entrainment zone) were not made over a sufficient range of conditions to explicitly quantify the variability in the location of the critical streakline. The variability in the critical streakline position was therefore represented stochastically with a random effects model. The estimated position of the critical streakline and the random effects model are input parameters used in a simulation designed to estimate fish entrainment over a 15-year period. The estimates of the critical streakline and likely fish entrainment could be much improved with velocity measurements over a broader range of stage and discharge conditions.