San Francisco Bay

Drought and the California Delta—A Matter of Extremes

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 14th, 2014

California is in an extreme drought as a result of low precipitation in water year 2012, record low precipitation in 2013, and the remarkably dry first few months of 2014

California is in an extreme drought as a result of low precipitation in water year 2012, record low precipitation in 2013, and the remarkably dry first few months of 2014. We typically receive our largest precipitation totals in Decembers and Januaries (which provide about 36% of the precipitation in the Delta’s catchment), and when those months are as dry as they were this year, subsequent months have to be unseasonably wet to avoid drought. Most of the current winter, especially December 2013–January 2014, was dry because a persistent ridge of high (atmospheric) pressures set up offshore, diverting storms away from California and into Alaska. That same diversion gave the Delta’s catchment its warmest winter in 120 years, as well as bringing all that cold weather to the eastern US. While the February 2014 storms provided minor relief and momentarily slowed the spiral into deeper drought, the drought continues apace. Nonetheless, as harsh as it is, the current drought is not unprecedented in the Delta’s history, and even less so in its prehistory. In this essay, we consider the ways that droughts in California arise from a few missing storms and from long-term variations and changes in climate, in order to identify drought-science needs for Delta management. 

Drought Contingency Planning (DCP) Negotiation #142, Attachment 1

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | April 30th, 2020

This white paper describes current understanding of how the Department of Water Resources (DWR) would account for and administer the Delta Conveyance Facility (DCF) Bene

This white paper describes current understanding of how the Department of Water Resources (DWR) would account for and administer the Delta Conveyance Facility (DCF) Benefits. DWR will include information regarding the accounting and administration of water attributable to DCF in relevant Notice(s) to State Water Project Contractors consistent with prior practice. No legally binding obligations are created by this white paper. This white paper may be updated from time to time by DWR, in consultation with the Public Water Agencies (PWAs), in response to factors including, but not limited to, changes in laws, regulations or permits applicable to DWR and/or the State Water Project (SWP). Capitalized terms not defined herein shall have the meanings ascribed to them in the DCF Agreement in Principle (AIP).

Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 20th, 2020

Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical ear

Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical early warning of hydrologic drought. This paradigm faces an impending challenge given consensus that a smaller fraction of future precipitation will fall as snow. Here, we apply downscaled hydrologic simulations from 28 climate model projections to show that by mid-century (2036–2065), 69% of historically snowmelt-dominated areas of the western United States see a decline in the ability of snow to predict seasonal drought, increasing to 83% by late century (2070–2099). Reduced predictability arises when peak snowpack approaches zero or because of decreased warm-season runoff efficiency. Changes in drought prediction skill show significant (P < 0.01) elevation dependence, with lower-elevation coastal areas most impacted by warming. Ancillary predictive information can only partially mitigate snow-based predictability losses to 65% of areas, underscoring the importance of declining future snowpack.

Drought Management and Climate Adaptation of Small, Self-Sufficient Drinking Water Systems in California

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 15th, 2018

Examining human impacts, responses, and challenges to extreme climatic events can give insight into needed directions for climate adaptation to reduce future risks. This

Examining human impacts, responses, and challenges to extreme climatic events can give insight into needed directions for climate adaptation to reduce future risks. This study focuses on the 2012-2016 Drought in California, documenting how small self-sufficient drinking water systems were affected and challenged by, and responded to the extreme event.

Drought Resilience Interagency and Partners Collaborative Progress Report (2026)

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 16th, 2026

This report summarizes the 2025 activities and progress of the Drought Resilience Interagency and Partners (DRIP) Collaborative.

This report summarizes the 2025 activities and progress of the Drought Resilience Interagency and Partners (DRIP) Collaborative.

Drought, Water Law, and the Origins of California's Central Valley Project

University of Nevada Press | October 27th, 2016

This book is an account of how water rights were designed as a key part of the state’s largest public water system, the Central Valley Project. Along sixty miles of the

This book is an account of how water rights were designed as a key part of the state’s largest public water system, the Central Valley Project. Along sixty miles of the San Joaquin River, from Gustine to Mendota, four corporate entities called “exchange contractors” retain paramount water rights to the river. Their rights descend from the days of the Miller & Lux Cattle Company, which amassed an empire of land and water from the 1850s through the 1920s and protected these assets through business deals and prolific litigation. Miller & Lux’s dominance of the river relied on what many in the San Joaquin Valley regarded as wasteful irrigation practices and unreasonable water usage. Economic and political power in California’s present water system was born of this monopoly on water control. Stroshane tells how drought and legal conflict shaped statewide economic development and how the grand bargain of a San Joaquin River water exchange was struck from this monopoly legacy, setting the stage for future water wars. His analysis will appeal to readers interested in environmental studies and public policy.

Droughts in California

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | April 1st, 2021

Dry Me a River: Ecological Effects of Drought in the Upper San Francisco Estuary

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | May 24th, 2024

Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 13th, 2019

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant eco

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world’s 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state’s GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three- fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.

Early Reclamation and Abandonment of the Central Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Sacramento Historical Society | September 15th, 2006