San Francisco Bay

Tracking Organic Matter in Delta Drinking Water

CALFED | April 1st, 2008

Tracking Where Water Goes in a Changing Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | May 26th, 2022

Click here for the accompanying Technical Appendix.

Click here for the accompanying Technical Appendix.

Tracking Where Water Goes in a Changing Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta Technical Appendix: Methods and Detailed Results for 1980–2021

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | May 26th, 2022

Our goal is to provide water policymakers, managers, and regulators with information that will be helpful in managing the Delta and its watershed for multiple objectives

Our goal is to provide water policymakers, managers, and regulators with information that will be helpful in managing the Delta and its watershed for multiple objectives as warming conditions increase water demand, reduce snowpack, and make it harder to balance these objectives. An accompanying policy brief summarizes the findings presented here and highlights the major policy recommendations. This appendix provides details and evidence to support those recommendations and is intended for both a technical and policy audience. In the following sections we first review our approach for categorizing water flows in the watershed, and we review the caveats and limitations of the analysis. We next present key results and discuss several important watershed trends. We then review the management challenges of changing conditions in the Delta in wet and dry years through the lens of detailed water accounting. We conclude with implications for policy and management, including recommendations to improve watershed accounting and adapt the regulatory and management framework to the changing conditions in the watershed. All data assembled for this study, along with the sources and methods used, are detailed in the accompanying PPIC Delta Water Accounting spreadsheets.

Trading Sustainably: Critical Considerations for Local Groundwater Markets Under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act

University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) | June 1st, 2017

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), passed in 2014, is changing the way California manages its groundwater resources. SGMA calls for the creation of loc

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), passed in 2014, is changing the way California manages its groundwater resources. SGMA calls for the creation of local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) and tasks them with developing and implementing Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs) to achieve sustainable groundwater management. SGMA offers GSAs a broad palette of tools to choose from and significant flexibility to tailor their management activities to local conditions and needs. Because it allows GSAs to assign groundwater extraction allocations to pumpers and to authorize transfers of these allocations under certain circumstances, SGMA potentially opens the door for the development of local groundwater markets. In such a market, a willing seller might trade a portion of their groundwater extraction allocation to a willing buyer, allowing the buyer to pump groundwater in the seller’s stead.

Translating Science-Based Restoration Strategies into Spatially-Explicit Restoration Opportunities in the Delta (2018 Bay-Delta Science Conference Presentation)

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | July 2nd, 2018

In a previous report titled “A Delta Renewed” we offered a collection of guidelines for science-based ecological restoration in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta that

In a previous report titled “A Delta Renewed” we offered a collection of guidelines for science-based ecological restoration in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta that emphasized restoring or emulating natural processes, anticipating future changes associated with climate change, establishing appropriate configurations of habitat types at the landscape scale, and utilizing a variety multi-benefit management strategies. In this talk, we present on our recent work to support regional restoration planning efforts by developing a repeatable process for using these guidelines to identify spatially-explicit restoration opportunities. The process is largely GIS-based and utilizes spatial data on existing land cover and conservation status, habitat configuration (including patch sizes and distances), surface elevations (including depth of subsidence), and future changes in tidal elevations associated with sea-level rise.  By distilling generalized guidelines into spatially-explicit opportunities, we hope to provide a practical tool for incorporating science into planning. To that end, these new methods are currently being piloted through planning efforts focused on the Central Delta Corridor and the McCormack Williamson Tract, and are also being used to assist with the quantification of ecological restoration potential in the Delta Plan Ecosystem Amendment.

Trapping of Suspended Sediment by Submerged Aquatic Vegetation in a Tidal Freshwater Region: Field Observations and Long-Term Trends

Estuaries and Coasts (Springer) | July 14th, 2020

Widespread invasion by non-native, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) may modify the sediment budget of an estuary, reducing the availability of inorganic sediment requir

Widespread invasion by non-native, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) may modify the sediment budget of an estuary, reducing the availability of inorganic sediment required by marshes to maintain their position in the tidal frame. The instantaneous trapping rate of suspended sediment in SAV patches in an estuary has not previously been quantified via field observations. In this study, flows of water and suspended sediment through patches of invasive SAV were measured at three tidally forced, freshwater sites, all located within the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California. An acoustic Doppler current profiler deployed from a roving vessel provided velocity and backscatter data used to quantify fluxes of both water and suspended sediment. Sediment trapping efficiency, defined as instantaneous net trapped flux divided by incident flux, was positive in 24 of 29 cases, averaging + 5%. Coupled with 3 years of measured sediment flux data at one site, this suggests that trapping averages 3.7 kg m−2 year−1. This estimate compares favorably with the mean mass accumulation rate of 3.8 kg m−2 year−1 estimated from dated sediment cores collected at the study sites. Long-term measurements made upstream reveal a strong negative trend (− 1.8% year−1) in suspended sediment concentration, and intra-annual changes in both suspended sediment concentration and percent fines. The large footprint and high spatial density of invasive SAV coupled with declining sediment supply are diminishing downstream suspended sediment concentrations, potentially reducing the resiliency of marshes in the Delta and lower estuary to future sea-level rise.

Tree height explains mortality risk during an intense drought

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 26th, 2019

Forest mortality is accelerating due to climate change and the largest trees may be at the greatest risk, threatening critical ecological, economic, and social be

Forest mortality is accelerating due to climate change and the largest trees may be at the greatest risk, threatening critical ecological, economic, and social benefits. Here, we combine high-resolution airborne LiDAR and optical data to track tree-level mortality rates for ~2 million trees in California over 8 years, showing that tree height is the strongest predictor of mortality during extreme drought. Large trees die at twice the rate of small trees and environmental gradients of temperature, water, and competition control the intensity of the height-mortality relationship. These findings suggest that future persistent drought may cause widespread mortality of the largest trees on Earth.

Trends in Fish and Invertebrate Populations of Suisun Marsh January 2017 - December 2017

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | January 31st, 2019

Suisun Marsh, at the geographic center of the northern San Francisco Estuary, is important habitat for native and non-native fishes. The University of California, Davis,

Suisun Marsh, at the geographic center of the northern San Francisco Estuary, is important habitat for native and non-native fishes. The University of California, Davis, Suisun Marsh Fish Study, in partnership with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), has systematically monitored the marsh's fish populations since January 1980. The study’s main purpose has been to determine environmental and anthropogenic factors affecting fish distribution and abundance. 

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 14th, 2022

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effect

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate-model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought-/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes.

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 10th, 2021

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.