San Francisco Bay

Addendum to the State Water Project and Central Valley Project Drought Contingency Plan

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 31st, 2022

This Addendum includes current hydrologic conditions, plus updates on the following: operations status and the latest SWP and CVP (collectively referred to as Projects) o

This Addendum includes current hydrologic conditions, plus updates on the following: operations status and the latest SWP and CVP (collectively referred to as Projects) operations forecasts; species status; and known WY 2022 drought actions.

Addressing Multiple Stressors and Multiple Goals in the Delta Plan

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | January 26th, 2011

Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information: Improving Monitoring and Forecasts of Precipitation, Streamflow, and Coastal Flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | October 26th, 2022

Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) is a synergistic project that combines observations and models to improve monitoring and forecasts of precipitation

Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) is a synergistic project that combines observations and models to improve monitoring and forecasts of precipitation, streamflow, and coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay area. As an experimental system, AQPI leverages more than a decade of research, innovation, and implementation of a statewide, state-of-the-art network of observations, and development of the next generation of weather and coastal forecast models. AQPI was developed as a prototype in response to requests from the water management community for improved information on precipitation, riverine, and coastal conditions to inform their decision making processes. Observation of precipitation in the complex Bay Area landscape of California’s coastal mountain ranges is known to be a challenging problem. But, with new advanced radar network techniques, AQPI is helping fill an important observational gap for this highly populated and vulnerable metropolitan area. The prototype AQPI system consists of improved weather radar data for precipitation estimation; additional surface measurements of precipitation, streamflow and soil moisture; and a suite of integrated forecast modeling systems to improve situational awareness about current and future water conditions from sky to sea. Together these tools will help improve emergency preparedness and public response to prevent loss of life and destruction of property during extreme storms accompanied by heavy precipitation and high coastal water levels - especially high-moisture laden atmospheric rivers. The Bay Area AQPI system could potentially be replicated in other urban regions in California, the United States, and world-wide.

Advancement of Salinity and Flow Monitoring in the San Francisco Bay Delta, San Francisco Bay Delta Action Plan Implementation Support, FINAL REPORT

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | February 1st, 2017

This report evaluates the cost and utility of adding coupled surface and near-bottom salinity monitors along the axis of the San Francisco Estuary, and the types

This report evaluates the cost and utility of adding coupled surface and near-bottom salinity monitors along the axis of the San Francisco Estuary, and the types of equipment and approximate costs of this additional monitoring effort. Expanding the monitoring network by adding downstream monitoring stations, adding stations at depth, and increasing the resolution of monitoring stations along the axis of the estuary will generate data that capture tidal dynamics and may be used to derive equations that predict salinity and other hydrodynamic endpoints with greater precision than currently possible. The proposed monitoring is expected to enhance the hydrodynamic modeling of the salt field and the accuracy of compliance and prediction methods in the estuary. Springtime outflows through the San Francisco Estuary are managed through the position of the 2 parts per thousand bottom salinity isohaline (X2) along the center-line of the estuary, measured in kilometers relative to the Golden Gate Bridge. X2 is calculated from surface salinity measurements with a constant vertical conversion factor. The current framework of sampling stations does not collect near-bottom salinity along the estuary center-line, does not extend far enough down-estuary to adequately characterize X2 during high flows, and the separation of monitoring locations limits the precision with which the position of X2 can be calculated. Near-surface and near-bed salinity and turbidity sensors and ancillary hardware could be added to the estuary for an estimated cost of ~ $780K in capital costs and $500K/yr in operation, maintenance, and data processing costs based on a proposed addition to an existing surface salinity network in San Francisco Estuary operated by the US Geological Survey. While this document does not recommend a particular plan for implementation, the compiled information provides rough costs for planning considerations. Data collected through a network of this kind could improve precision of compliance methods with the existing Delta outflow standard. With data collected over time, it would support modifications to a new/modified Delta outflow standard, improve our ability to assess the effectiveness of water quality standards, and improve protection of water supply and aquatic life habitat. These data would also improve the salinity modeling capability and accuracy for future predictions and past evaluations. Expanding the monitoring network also provides a platform to connect hydrodynamic and biological measurements which is necessary for integrating biological and hydrodynamic modeling and advancing knowledge of estuarine mechanisms that influence fish population trends. The specific design of a monitoring network and whether or not the improvements can be optimized for their potential outputs was beyond the scope of the present document and needs to be based on a broader discussion among science experts, regulators, and the regulated community.

Advances in Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Relevant to Water Management in the Western United States

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | July 21st, 2022

Water management in the semi-arid western United States (U.S.) is a challenging endeavor that evolves from year to year based on large-scale atmospheric and oceanic condi

Water management in the semi-arid western United States (U.S.) is a challenging endeavor that evolves from year to year based on large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This region has frequently experienced prolonged periods of drought with substantial socioeconomic impacts; the most recent instance involves California entering its third consecutive drought year. As context for the economic implications of drought, California’s enacted state budget for the Fiscal Year 2021-22 authorizes more than $600 million for the California Department of Water Resources for providing immediate drought support to local water agencies (CA State Budget 2021a); this amount is part of a package of more than $5 billion over four years for water resilience and drought preparedness (CA State Budget 2021b). For drought preparedness, state and local water managers would like to rely on skillful forecasts on timescales that span the spectrum between weather forecasts and climate predictions. Despite recent improvements in developing sub-seasonal (2- to 6-weeks lead) and seasonal (2- to 6-months lead) prediction systems that compete with and/or outperform existing dynamical and statistical models (e.g., Gibson et al. 2021, Switanek et al. 2020, DeFlorio et al. 2019), forecasting limitations have hindered crucial management decisions for western U.S. water managers, especially related to longer-lead planning, budgeting, resource allocation, and better preparedness for wet and dry extremes (DeFlorio et al. 2021). Improved understanding of physical phenomena and processes governing weather and climate extremes and utilization of emerging forecast methodologies are critical to developing skillful S2S forecast products relevant to water management.

Advancing Ecosystem Restoration with Smarter Permitting

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | August 16th, 2021

California’s ecosystems form the bedrock of the state’s well being and prosperity. Yet many of these ecosystems—which are vitally important to the state’s water s

California’s ecosystems form the bedrock of the state’s well being and prosperity. Yet many of these ecosystems—which are vitally important to the state’s water supply, agriculture, wildlife, and economy—are in dire health. Climate change and accelerating biodiversity loss threaten to further disrupt these natural systems and the benefits they provide. While the state urgently needs to speed the pace of ecosystem restoration, such projects often find themselves mired in regulations that were originally intended to prevent environmental destruction.

Advancing Hydro-Economic Optimization to Identify Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Opportunities in California’s Water System

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

Long-term shifts in the timing and magnitude of reservoir inflows will affect water supply reliability in California. Hydro-economic models can help explore climate chang

Long-term shifts in the timing and magnitude of reservoir inflows will affect water supply reliability in California. Hydro-economic models can help explore climate change concerns by identifying system vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for statewide water operations. This work contributes a new open-source limited foresight implementation of the CALVIN model, a hydro-economic model including roughly 90% of California’s urban and agricultural water demands. The model includes the ability to determine water allocations on an annual basis without knowledge of future availability, and to efficiently evaluate ensembles of streamflow projections representing a range of possible future climates. We then assess the vulnerability of the statewide system to changes in total annual runoff and the fraction of runoff occurring during winter, which primarily depends on temperature. Results are analyzed with a focus on adaptation strategies, aided by the economic representation of water demand in the model. These strategies include changes to reservoir operating policies, and conveyance and storage expansion. As water availability decreases, model results show quadratic increases in shortage cost, and corresponding increases in the marginal costs of adaptation strategies and environmental flow constraints. Reservoirs adapt to warmer climates by increasing average storage levels in winter and routing excess runoff to downstream reservoirs with available capacity. Both small and large changes to reservoir operations were observed compared to historical hydrology, showing that no single operating strategy achieves optimality for all reservoirs. Increasing the fraction of winter flow causes small increases in total shortage cost, indicating the ability to manage a changing hydrologic regime with adaptive reservoir operations. The results of this project improve estimates of the cost of climate change to California’s water system under a range of future conditions and highlight adaptation strategies that minimize costs of increased hydrologic variability. 

Advancing Strategic Land Repurposing and Groundwater Sustainability in California

Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) | March 26th, 2021

For decades, California has been on a steady trajectory toward water scarcity, which is now exacerbated by climate change. More frequent and intense droughts and incre

For decades, California has been on a steady trajectory toward water scarcity, which is now exacerbated by climate change. More frequent and intense droughts and increased demands have affected the reliability of surface water supplies. As a result, many have looked to groundwater to fill the gap. Groundwater overpumping has resulted in adverse impacts such as reduction in groundwater storage, subsidence, water quality degradation, sea water intrusion, wells going dry and depletion of interconnected surface waters throughout many areas in California’s San Joaquin Valley. These impacts led to the passage of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) by the state Legislature in 2014, which mandates sustainable use of groundwater by 2040 for the most critically overdrafted basins.

Agreement Between the United States of America and the State of California for Coordinated Operating Agreement for the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | November 24th, 1986

The 1986 agreement between the Bureau of Reclamation and the Department of Water Resources for the coordinated operation of the Central Valley Project and the State Water

The 1986 agreement between the Bureau of Reclamation and the Department of Water Resources for the coordinated operation of the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project.

Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 20th, 2020

Snowpack stores cold-season precipitation to meet warm-season water demand. Climate change threatens to disturb this balance by altering the fraction of precipita

Snowpack stores cold-season precipitation to meet warm-season water demand. Climate change threatens to disturb this balance by altering the fraction of precipitation falling as snow and the timing of snowmelt, which may have profound effects on food production in basins where irrigated agriculture relies heavily on snowmelt runoff. Here, we analyse global patterns of snowmelt and agricultural water uses to identify regions and crops that are most dependent on snowmelt water resources. We find hotspots primarily in high-mountain Asia (the Tibetan Plateau), Central Asia, western Russia, western US and the southern Andes. Using projections of sub-annual runoff under warming scenarios, we identify the basins most at risk from changing snowmelt patterns, where up to 40% of irrigation demand must be met by new alternative water supplies under a 4 °C warming scenario. Our results highlight basins and crops where adaptation of water management and agricultural systems may be especially critical in a changing climate.