Sacramento River

Advancing Hydro-Economic Optimization to Identify Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Opportunities in California’s Water System

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

Long-term shifts in the timing and magnitude of reservoir inflows will affect water supply reliability in California. Hydro-economic models can help explore climate chang

Long-term shifts in the timing and magnitude of reservoir inflows will affect water supply reliability in California. Hydro-economic models can help explore climate change concerns by identifying system vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for statewide water operations. This work contributes a new open-source limited foresight implementation of the CALVIN model, a hydro-economic model including roughly 90% of California’s urban and agricultural water demands. The model includes the ability to determine water allocations on an annual basis without knowledge of future availability, and to efficiently evaluate ensembles of streamflow projections representing a range of possible future climates. We then assess the vulnerability of the statewide system to changes in total annual runoff and the fraction of runoff occurring during winter, which primarily depends on temperature. Results are analyzed with a focus on adaptation strategies, aided by the economic representation of water demand in the model. These strategies include changes to reservoir operating policies, and conveyance and storage expansion. As water availability decreases, model results show quadratic increases in shortage cost, and corresponding increases in the marginal costs of adaptation strategies and environmental flow constraints. Reservoirs adapt to warmer climates by increasing average storage levels in winter and routing excess runoff to downstream reservoirs with available capacity. Both small and large changes to reservoir operations were observed compared to historical hydrology, showing that no single operating strategy achieves optimality for all reservoirs. Increasing the fraction of winter flow causes small increases in total shortage cost, indicating the ability to manage a changing hydrologic regime with adaptive reservoir operations. The results of this project improve estimates of the cost of climate change to California’s water system under a range of future conditions and highlight adaptation strategies that minimize costs of increased hydrologic variability. 

Advancing Strategic Land Repurposing and Groundwater Sustainability in California

Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) | March 26th, 2021

For decades, California has been on a steady trajectory toward water scarcity, which is now exacerbated by climate change. More frequent and intense droughts and incre

For decades, California has been on a steady trajectory toward water scarcity, which is now exacerbated by climate change. More frequent and intense droughts and increased demands have affected the reliability of surface water supplies. As a result, many have looked to groundwater to fill the gap. Groundwater overpumping has resulted in adverse impacts such as reduction in groundwater storage, subsidence, water quality degradation, sea water intrusion, wells going dry and depletion of interconnected surface waters throughout many areas in California’s San Joaquin Valley. These impacts led to the passage of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) by the state Legislature in 2014, which mandates sustainable use of groundwater by 2040 for the most critically overdrafted basins.

Agreement Between the United States of America and the State of California for Coordinated Operating Agreement for the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | November 24th, 1986

The 1986 agreement between the Bureau of Reclamation and the Department of Water Resources for the coordinated operation of the Central Valley Project and the State Water

The 1986 agreement between the Bureau of Reclamation and the Department of Water Resources for the coordinated operation of the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project.

Agricultural Damages and Losses from ARkStorm Scenario Flooding in California

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | November 17th, 2016

Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased l

Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased likelihood under climate change. California is an important provider of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and other agricultural products to the nation. This study analyzes the agricultural damages and losses pertaining to annual crops, perennial crops, and livestock in California exposed to ARkStorm flooding. Statewide, flood damage is incurred on approximately 23% of annual crop acreage, 5% of perennial crop acreage, and 5% of livestock, e.g., dairy, feedlot, and poultry, acreage. The sum of field repair costs, forgone income, and product replacement costs span $3.7 and $7.1 billion (2009) for a range of inundation durations. Perennial crop loss estimates dominate, and the vulnerability of orchards and vineyards has likely increased with recent expansion. Crop reestablishment delays from levee repair and dewatering more than double annual crop losses in the delta islands, assuming the fragile system does not remain permanently flooded. The exposure of almost 200,000 dairy cows to ARkStorm flooding poses livestock evacuation challenges.

Agricultural Irrigation in This Drought: Where is the Water and Where Is It Going?

University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics | May 14th, 2015

In the midst of its fourth year of drought, California now faces an estimated reduction in surface-water availability of 8.8 million acre-feet (maf) out of 29 maf in agri

In the midst of its fourth year of drought, California now faces an estimated reduction in surface-water availability of 8.8 million acre-feet (maf) out of 29 maf in agricultural applied water statewide. However, groundwater, the buffer water supply during drought, is replacing about 6.2 maf of surface water via additional pumping. This increased groundwater pumping is in addition to the 1.5 maf of annual average groundwater overdraft in the Central Valley. The net reduction of 2.6 maf in the total supply in 2015 may result in about 564,000 acres fallowed statewide, or about 120,000 more acres than last year's fallowing estimates.

Agricultural Land Use in California

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | June 25th, 2024

Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 20th, 2020

Snowpack stores cold-season precipitation to meet warm-season water demand. Climate change threatens to disturb this balance by altering the fraction of precipita

Snowpack stores cold-season precipitation to meet warm-season water demand. Climate change threatens to disturb this balance by altering the fraction of precipitation falling as snow and the timing of snowmelt, which may have profound effects on food production in basins where irrigated agriculture relies heavily on snowmelt runoff. Here, we analyse global patterns of snowmelt and agricultural water uses to identify regions and crops that are most dependent on snowmelt water resources. We find hotspots primarily in high-mountain Asia (the Tibetan Plateau), Central Asia, western Russia, western US and the southern Andes. Using projections of sub-annual runoff under warming scenarios, we identify the basins most at risk from changing snowmelt patterns, where up to 40% of irrigation demand must be met by new alternative water supplies under a 4 °C warming scenario. Our results highlight basins and crops where adaptation of water management and agricultural systems may be especially critical in a changing climate.

Alternatives for Delta Water Transfers

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | November 1st, 1983

Aluminum- and iron-based coagulation for in-situ removal of dissolved organic carbon, disinfection byproducts, mercury and other constituents from agricultural drain water

Journal of Geochemical Exploration (Elsevier) | May 9th, 2019

Agricultural production on wetland soils can be significant sources of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), disinfection byproduct precursors, mercury and nutrients to downst

Agricultural production on wetland soils can be significant sources of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), disinfection byproduct precursors, mercury and nutrients to downstream water bodies and accelerate land subsidence. Presented as a potential solution for in-situ water quality improvement and land subsidence mitigation, chemically enhanced treatment wetlands (CETWs) were used to leverage both coagulation and wetland processes. In this study, we evaluated the performance of coagulants ferric sulfate (Fe dosing) and polyaluminum chloride (Al dosing) to remove pollutants from agricultural drain water using the coagulation system designed for CETWs. Both coagulation treatments removed over 70% DOC from source waters, resulting in removal efficiencies (mg-DOC removed per mg-metal dosed) of 1 under Al dosing and 0.5 under Fe dosing. Coagulation by both treatments preferentially removed UV254 active compounds compared to the bulk DOC concentration, suggesting coagulation targeted aromatics more effectively. Phosphates and haloacetic acids were also removed more readily, whereas trihalomethanes, dissolved organic nitrogen and filtered mercury species were removed at similar or lower rates than DOC. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen was not amenable to coagulation and removal was not observed. Freundlich, Langmuir and Monod models explained 33% of the variance in DOC removal for Al dosing and 78–89% of the variance for Fe dosing. All three models indicated Al dosing had higher removal efficiency and affinity for DOC than Fe dosing under study conditions, but when used to predict maximum removal efficiency there was no cohesiveness between the three models due to different model assumptions. Consideration of fluorescence dissolved organic matter and UV254 as surrogates for DOC concentration showed both were equally suitable before coagulant application, but as surrogates after coagulant application, neither could be deemed more fit as a surrogate since both were shown suitable for different treatment scenarios.

American and Sacramento Rivers, California, Erodibility Measurements and Model

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 11th, 2021

A previous report by the authors described sediment sampling and drilling by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) beside the American and Sacramento Rivers near Sacramento,

A previous report by the authors described sediment sampling and drilling by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) beside the American and Sacramento Rivers near Sacramento, California, in support of a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers project focused on regional flood control. The drilling was performed to define lithology, extract samples for laboratory testing, and perform borehole erosion tests (BETs). The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) performed jet erodibility tests (JETs) near each drilling site, and a team from Texas A&M University performed laboratory tests with an erosion function apparatus (EFA). Collectively, the effort was intended to reveal spatial variations in sediment erodibility and provide data for use in a model to simulate morphological response to a major flood. The data collected by the USGS are available in a public data release. This report, developed in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, provides comparisons of the three types of measurements of the erodibility of riverbed sediments. The BET is performed in the field and reveals erodibility of sediments below the bed surface. The JET is likewise performed in the field but reveals only erodibility of exposed sediments. The EFA test is done in the laboratory and was performed on soils extracted from different depths beneath the bed surface, in many cases reconstituted for laboratory testing. Tests were performed at nominally similar locations but differed by meters to tens of meters in horizontal locations. The comparison was undertaken to investigate differences among results obtained by the individual measurement approaches and to elucidate pros and cons of each method. The critical shear stress to initiate erosion and the rate of change of erosion rate per unit increase of excess shear stress, sometimes referred to as the erosion coefficient, served as the primary basis for comparison. The three test methods in some cases resulted in order of magnitude differences in estimates of these parameters. Some differences could be attributed to variances in site location or result from testing surface sediment versus a deeper layer, but systematic differences are also evident in the results. The tests performed in the laboratory using the EFA resulted in much lower values of critical shear stress and much higher values of the erosion coefficient compared to the JET tests performed by the USDA team on surface sediments. Critical shear stress was poorly resolved in the BET results because of the limited number of results per site, but the erosion coefficients derived from BET results were systematically lower than those obtained using the EFA. A new, simplified approach is also proposed to estimate the increase in channel cross-sectional area during a large flood, given data describing the initial river cross section, riverbed erodibility parameters, and peak flood discharge and duration. The model runs until the cross section erodes to an equilibrium condition or the flood ends. Output describes the area of the cross section at the end of the simulation and the time required to reach equilibrium if it was reached within the simulated period. The model assumes unique, constant values for both the critical shear stress and the erosion coefficient and represents the fluid mechanics in a simplified way, making it of limited value for quantitative predictions. It does, however, provide an indication of which cross sections are most likely to undergo the greatest change in the design event and can be used to investigate sensitivity of erosion predictions to variability in sediment erodibility measurements.