Colorado River

Hydropower capacity factors trending down in the United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 27th, 2024

Identifying Major Hydrologic Change Drivers in a Highly Managed Transboundary Endorheic Basin: Integrating Hydro-ecological Models and Time-Series Data Mining Techniques

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 23rd, 2022

The fragile balance of endorheic lakes in highly managed semi-arid basins with transboundary water issues has been altered by the intertwined effects of global warming an

The fragile balance of endorheic lakes in highly managed semi-arid basins with transboundary water issues has been altered by the intertwined effects of global warming and long-term water mismanagement to support agricultural and industrial demand. The alarming rate of global endorheic lakes’ depletion in recent decades necessitates formulating mitigation strategies for ecosystem restoration. However, detecting and quantifying the relative contribution of causal factors (climate variability and anthropogenic stressors) is challenging. This study developed a diagnostic multivariate framework to identify major hydrologic drivers of lake depletion in a highly managed endorheic basin with a complex water distribution system. The framework integrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulations with time-series decomposition and clustering methods to identify the major drivers of change. This diagnostic framework was applied to the Salton Sea Transboundary Basin (SSTB), the host of the world's most impaired inland lake. The results showed signs of depletion across the SSTB since late 1998 with no significant changes in climate conditions. The time-series data mining of the SSTB water balance components indicated that decreases in lake tributary inflows (-16.4 Mm3 yr-2) in response to decline in Colorado River inflows, associated with state water transfer agreements, are causing the Salton Sea to shrink, not changes in the irrigation operation as commonly believed. The developed multivariate detection and attribution framework is useful for identifying major drivers of change in coupled natural-human systems.

Identifying the Amount of Wastewater that is Available and Feasible to Recycle in California

Water Research Foundation (WRF) | July 24th, 2023

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | March 1st, 2016

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Improving Groundwater Security in the United States

The White House | December 14th, 2024

The U.S. is facing a serious and unprecedented groundwater challenge. In many aquifers, groundwater withdrawal has outpaced natural recharge, which is exacerbated by the

The U.S. is facing a serious and unprecedented groundwater challenge. In many aquifers, groundwater withdrawal has outpaced natural recharge, which is exacerbated by the changing climate and precipitation variability. Much of the water in the major aquifers in the U.S. is fossil water, recharged over 10,000 years ago, and will not be replaced naturally on human timescales. In the western U.S., groundwater resources are being depleted at alarming rates, mostly from agricultural withdrawal. The depletion has caused land subsidence and earth fissures as well as permanent reduction of storage capacity. The depletion has national and global consequences as non-renewable groundwater in the west is embedded in agricultural products transported to the rest of the U. S. and in agricultural commodities exported globally. Many federal agencies have programs to measure the quality and quantity of groundwater, as well as conservation programs for sustainable use of groundwater. PCAST applauds and endorses their efforts as well as those by state governments, non-governmental organizations, professional organizations, local communities, private citizens, and others, to manage their groundwater resources. To ensure the sustainability of this indispensable resource and mitigate risks from its depletion, it is imperative that we enhance our understanding and management of groundwater resources.

Inaction’s Economic Cost for California’s Water Supply Challenges

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | May 14th, 2025

California’s water system is in for challenges in coming decades as climate, groundwater policy, and environmental regulations reduce availability and increase variabil

California’s water system is in for challenges in coming decades as climate, groundwater policy, and environmental regulations reduce availability and increase variability in water supplies for agricultural and urban uses. A previous report estimated 4 to 9 million acre-feet (maf) per year of unavoidable reductions in existing water supplies, 12% to 25% of today’s water use (Lund et al. 2024). This report estimates the economic costs of not responding to these reductions in water availability.

Inadequate Government-Led Water-Quality Monitoring Hinders Improvement Efforts in the Salton Sea

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) | September 4th, 2025

California’s largest inland body of water, the Salton Sea, has faced severe environmental degradation, leaving lasting impacts on surrounding desert communities. Situat

California’s largest inland body of water, the Salton Sea, has faced severe environmental degradation, leaving lasting impacts on surrounding desert communities. Situated between Riverside and Imperial counties, the lake has endured the effects of jurisdictional challenges, climate change, and unsustainable agricultural practices that have exacerbated nutrient pollution to levels surpassing those found in most lakes across the United States. Data collected over 16 years of quarterly government sampling and 12 months of high-frequency sampling—conducted collaboratively by local communities and the University of California, Los Angeles—consistently reveal high concentrations of nitrates and dangerously low oxygen levels in the water column. These nutrient-rich conditions create an environment conducive to hydrogen sulfide emissions, which persist around the Salton Sea at levels that exceed health standards and raise ongoing concerns within the community. The State of California and the federal government are contractually obligated to restore the Salton Sea. To address the water-quality issues and their consequences, we recommend a combination of environmental and economic remediation efforts aimed at improving the Salton Sea’s ecosystem and its resulting impact on nearby communities.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 21st, 2015

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.

Indigenous communities, groundwater opportunities

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | August 3rd, 2018

Instead of managing fresh water as one integrated resource, laws frequently treat groundwater separately from more visible, monitored, and managed surface waters. One und

Instead of managing fresh water as one integrated resource, laws frequently treat groundwater separately from more visible, monitored, and managed surface waters. One under-recognized consequence of such legal fragmentation has been uncertainty about whether water rights for indigenous communities, which have been addressed in many countries to varying degrees for surface waters, apply to groundwater. In late 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court left standing a lower court ruling endorsing priority groundwater rights for Native American tribes by denying an appeal in Agua Caliente Band v. Coachella Valley Water District. This ruling establishes a new standard throughout nine western states within the lower court's jurisdiction and establishes persuasive, although nonbinding, legal precedent for the rest of the United States. To evaluate the ruling's broader potential impacts, we present new data cataloging existing Native American water rights and mapping unresolved tribal groundwater claims across the western United States. No court considered such a regional or national quantitative catalog or map. Drawing lessons from past U.S. experience, we then discuss how tribal rights may offer new opportunities to achieve sustainable groundwater management for society at large, with implications beyond the United States. *The full text of this paper is behind a Science Magazine pay wall at a single-issue cost of $15. It should be available for free through research portals at universities, and may be accessible through public libraries with Science Magazine subscriptions. A free summary is contained by the August 3, 2018 Stanford News report "Stanford study reveals the changing scope of Native American groundwater rights – and opportunities for better freshwater management."    

Information Needs for Water Markets: Fair and Effective Water Markets Require Adequate Measurement and Reporting of Diversion and Use

University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) | November 14th, 2024