Central Coast

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | July 29th, 2024

Simulated Effects of Future Water Availability and Protected Species Habitat in a Perennial Wetland, Santa Barbara County, California

Water (MDPI) | April 21st, 2025

This study evaluates the potential water availability in Barka Slough and the effects of changing hydrological conditions on the aquatic habitat of five protected species

This study evaluates the potential water availability in Barka Slough and the effects of changing hydrological conditions on the aquatic habitat of five protected species.

Simulated Effects of Ground-Water Management Alternatives for the Salinas Valley, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 15th, 1988

A two-dimensional digital ground-water flow model was developed to analyze the geohydrology of the ground-water basin in the Salinas Valley. The ground-water model was ca

A two-dimensional digital ground-water flow model was developed to analyze the geohydrology of the ground-water basin in the Salinas Valley. The ground-water model was calibrated for steady-state and transient simulations by comparing simulated with measured or estimated inflows, outflows, and water levels for 1970-81. Preliminary estimates of hydraulic properties and some inflows and outflows were adjusted during model calibration. The simulated mean annual water budget for the basin was 559,500 acre-feet per year each of outflow and inflow. Inflow components consisted of Salinas River recharge (38.3 percent), percolation of irrigation water (34.0 percent), small stream and Arroyo Seco recharge (20.9 percent), seawater intrusion (3.4 percent), and other sources (3.4 percent). Outflow components consisted of agricultural pumpage (91.5 percent), municipal pumpage (4.0 percent), and riparian phreatophyte evapotranspiration (4.5 percent). For the steady-state calibration, 70 percent of the simulated water levels were within 9 feet of measured water levels for 1970-81. A sensitivity analysis determined the overall stability of the model results. The model input variable that probably contributes most to the uncertainty of the results is the quantity of ground-water recharge contributed by irrigation return flow to the unconfined aquifer. A 15-percent change in the estimate of this variable causes an 11-percent change in the simulated river-seepage rate and a 6-percent change in the simulated seawater-intrusion rate. The calibrated model was used to investigate several water-resources management alternatives. Projected pumpage increase at a rate of 1 percent per year for 20 years caused declines in mean annual water levels of 10 to 20 feet in some areas and an increase in seawater intrusion from 18,900 to 23,600 acre-feet per year. Pumpage decreases in the coastal area decreased seawater intrusion more effectively than pumpage decreases farther inland. When pumpage was decreased near the coast, seawater intrusion decreased oneseventh as much. When pumpage was decreased uniformly throughout the valley, the decrease in seawater intrusion was only one-fourteenth the decrease in pumpage. Simulations indicated that replacement of ground-water pumpage with imported surface water in a 9,000-acre service area near the coast would result in a decrease in seawater intrusion equaling nearly onehalf the quantity of imported water. This further confirmed that the rate of seawater intrusion is most sensitive to pumpage near the coast.

Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies from 1980-2017

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 29th, 2020

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and flood events along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present‐day charac

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and flood events along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present‐day characteristics of AR‐related precipitation extremes, a selection of nine most intense historical AR events during 1980–2017 is simulated using a dynamical downscaling modeling framework based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. We find that the chosen framework and Weather Research and Forecasting Model configuration reproduces both large‐scale atmospheric features—including parent synoptic‐scale cyclones—as well as the filamentary corridors of integrated vapor transport associated with the ARs themselves. The accuracy of simulated extreme precipitation maxima, relative to in situ and interpolated gridded observations, improves notably with increasing model resolution, with improvements as large as 40–60% for fine scale (3 km) relative to coarse‐scale (27 km) simulations. A separate set of simulations using smoothed topography suggests that much of these gains stem from the improved representation of complex terrain. Additionally, using the 12 December 1995 storm in Northern California as an example, we demonstrate that only the highest‐resolution simulations resolve important fine‐scale features—such as localized orographically forced vertical motion and powerful near hurricane‐force boundary layer winds. Given the demonstrated ability of a targeted dynamical downscaling framework to capture both local extreme precipitation and key fine‐scale characteristics of the most intense ARs in the historical record, we argue that such a configuration may be highly conducive to understanding AR‐related extremes and associated changes in a warming climate.

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water resources of the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed, Santa Barbara County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | February 1st, 2022

In the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW), western Santa Barbara County, California, groundwater is the primary source of water for agricultural irrigation, the t

In the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW), western Santa Barbara County, California, groundwater is the primary source of water for agricultural irrigation, the town of Los Alamos, and supplemental water to Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB). Groundwater pumpage has increased since the 1970s as non-irrigated agricultural land has been converted to irrigated land and as local pumping for municipal use has increased. This increase in groundwater use has resulted in declining groundwater levels, adjustments in surface-water flows and species habitats, and changes in water quality. Water managers are addressing the challenges of meeting this increased demand while maintaining sustainable groundwater supplies. To address these challenges, Santa Barbara County Water Agency, Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) undertook a cooperative study to characterize the integrated hydrologic system of the SACVW and develop tools to better understand and manage the groundwater system. The objectives of this study were to improve the understanding of the integrated hydrologic system and incorporate the understanding into an integrated groundwater and surface-water flow model that can be used to help manage the water resources in the SACVW. The San Antonio Creek integrated model (SACIM) was developed using the USGS coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model to simulate the hydrologic system of the SACVW and provide annual and average water budgets for 1948–2018 water years. Results from the SACIM indicated that between 1948 and 2018, total groundwater from storage (storage depletion) for the period was 453,300 acre-feet (acre-ft). Agricultural pumpage was the largest discharge and accounted for a total of 1,020,000 acre-ft of groundwater. Increased pumpage since the mid-1980s (of which agricultural pumpage is the primary component) is tied to an increased rate of storage depletion and reduced rates of groundwater evapotranspiration and surface leakage (groundwater discharge to the surface and soil zone). The increased pumpage also reduced subsurface inflow to Barka Slough, resulting in a decline in upward flow through the underlying hydrogeologic units and surface leakage. In addition to quantifying historical changes in the integrated hydrologic system, the SACIM is a tool than can be used by water managers to evaluate the effects of different climatic and hydrologic conditions and management strategies.

Small Water Systems and Rural Communities Drought and Water Shortage Contingency Planning and Risk Assessment, Part 1

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 25th, 2021

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42, which directs the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small wate

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42, which directs the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small water suppliers and rural communities that may be at risk of drought and water shortage vulnerability, and to propose recommendations and information in support of improving their drought preparedness. The report is published in two parts: Part 1 deals with drought and water shortage contingency planning recommendations, and Part 2 presents a methodology of drought and water shortage vulnerability assessment and risk scoring. Additionally, below are links for Part 1 appendices. Appendix 1: Literature Review Appendix 2: Proposed Water Shortage Contingency Plan Components for Small Water Systems Serving 1,000 to 2,999 Service Connections Appendix 3: Proposed Umbrella Water Shortage Contingency Plan Components Appendix 4: Indian Health Service Template for a Drought Contingency Plan for a Tribal Public Water System Appendix 5: County Drought Advisory Group General Funding and Financing Issues

Small Water Systems and Rural Communities Drought and Water Shortage Contingency Planning and Risk Assessment, Part 2

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 25th, 2021

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42 which directs California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small water sup

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42 which directs California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small water suppliers and rural communities that may be at risk of drought and water shortage vulnerability and propose recommendations and information in support of improving the drought preparedness of small water suppliers and rural communities. The report is published in two parts: Part 1 dealing with drought and water shortage contingency planning recommendations, and Part 2 presenting a methodology and results of drought and water shortage vulnerability assessment and risk scoring. Additionally, below are links for Part 2 appendices. Appendix 1: Drought and Water Shortage Risk Scoring: California’s Small Water Supplier and Self-Supplied Communities Appendix 2: Drought and Water Shortage Risk Scoring: Risk Score Results of Small Water Suppliers Appendix 3: Drought and Water Shortage Risk Scoring: Risk Score Results of Self-Supplied Communities

Snow monitoring at strategic locations improves water supply forecasting more than basin-wide mapping

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 15th, 2025

In the Western United States, water supply forecasting has traditionally relied on snow water equivalent measurements at ground-based stations due to their strong correla

In the Western United States, water supply forecasting has traditionally relied on snow water equivalent measurements at ground-based stations due to their strong correlations with streamflow volume during spring and summer. However, stations are sparse and sample a small area, prompting interest in spatially complete – but costly – basin-wide mapping from airborne surveys or future satellite missions. Here we show that adding strategic measurements at snow hotspots – localized areas with untapped information for predicting streamflow – consistently outperforms spatially complete surveys that provide basin-average snowpack, both in basins with and without existing stations. While both improve forecast skill, hotspot monitoring increases correlations with streamflow volume by 11-14% (median) across 390 basins, compared to 4% from basin-wide surveys. These findings hold across snowpack datasets, skill metrics, and statistical models. The greatest gains in water supply prediction come from leveraging existing stations and expanding snow measurements to the right places, rather than everywhere.

Snowmelt risk telecouplings for irrigated agriculture

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 31st, 2022

Climate change is altering the timing and magnitude of snowmelt, which may either directly or indirectly via global trade affect agriculture and livelihoods dependent on

Climate change is altering the timing and magnitude of snowmelt, which may either directly or indirectly via global trade affect agriculture and livelihoods dependent on snowmelt. Here, we integrate subannual irrigation and snowmelt dynamics and a model of international trade to assess the global redistribution of snowmelt dependencies and risks under climate change. We estimate that 16% of snowmelt used for irrigation is for agricultural products traded globally, of which over 70% is from five countries. Globally, we observe a prodigious snowmelt dependence and risk diffusion, with particularly evident importing of products at risk in western Europe. In Germany and the UK, local fraction of surface-water-irrigated agriculture supply exposed to snowmelt risks could increase from negligible to 16% and 10%, respectively, under a 2 °C warming. Our results reveal the trade-exposure of agricultural supplies, highlighting regions and crops whose consumption may be vulnerable to changing snowmelt even if their domestic production is not.

Socio-hydrological drought impacts on urban water affordability

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 19th, 2023

In water-stressed regions, droughts pose a critical challenge to urban water security for low-income households. Droughts reduce water availability, forcing water provide

In water-stressed regions, droughts pose a critical challenge to urban water security for low-income households. Droughts reduce water availability, forcing water providers to invest in additional supplies or enact expensive, short-term emergency measures. These costs are frequently passed on to households through increased rates and surcharges, driving up water bills for low-income households and altering patterns of water consumption. Here we have developed a socio-hydrological modelling approach that integrates hydrology, water infrastructure, utility decision-making and household behaviour to understand the impacts of droughts on household water affordability. We present here an application based on Santa Cruz, California and show that many drought resilience strategies raise water bills for low-income households and lower them for high-income households. We also found that low-income households are most vulnerable to both changing drought characteristics and infrastructure lock-in.