Synthesizing Relationships Between Winter-Run Chinook Salmon Out-Migration Survival and Water Operations in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta

Sacramento River winter-run Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are an endangered population that faces numerous challenges across its life cycle, including juvenile out-migration through the heavily anthropogenically modified Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, or Delta. Water exports from pumping facilities in the Delta can alter local hydrology and influence movement of out-migrating juveniles, some of which are observed in or near pumping facilities. Monitoring and regulations, intended to protect out-migrating fish through restrictions on pumping, are predicated on assumed relationships among fish observations, water operations, and through-Delta migratory survival. In this study, we use a new conceptual model to review the current state of science for winter-run Chinook Salmon out-migration survival in the Delta, and use simulation modeling to address pertinent knowledge gaps. Results of this study highlight varying support for the influence of Sacramento River flow, temperature, and water exports on routing and survival in different regions of the Delta. The contributions of specific routing pathways to the interior Delta (e.g., through Threemile Slough) to survival, and the relationship between fish entrainment at pumping facilities and overall migratory survival, remain uncertain. Recommended future work includes continued fine-scale acoustic telemetry studies throughout the Delta, novel integrated modeling of monitoring data, and contextualizing the relevance of Delta-based survival to population viability by incorporating explicit uncertainties about survival into existing life-cycle models.