San Andreas Fault Stress Change Due To Groundwater Withdrawal in California’s Central Valley, 1860-2010

We investigate the spatial and temporal effects of groundwater removal in California’s Central Valley on ground surface deformation and on stress changes on the nearby central San Andreas fault (CSAF). In particular, we focus on two outstanding questions: (a) What are the spatial distributions of Coulomb failure stress (ΔCFS) on the CSAF? (b) What are the effects of viscoelasticity on uplift and ΔCSF over time? We focus on the well studied 2006–2010 drought, estimating the change in groundwater storage and the resulting uplift and stress change through a numerical model for the Earth. Viscoelastic effects are examined through an estimate of historical groundwater change from 1860-1961 and a hydrological model from 1961-2003 added to the 2006–2010 drought estimates. Here we find that lower crust or upper mantle viscosity variations enhance uplift and stress changes and that CSAF stress changes may accumulate with time, especially with droughts and groundwater consumption.