Modeling California’s high-elevation hydropower systems in energy units

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 22nd, 2009

This paper presents a novel approach for modeling high-elevation hydropower systems. Conservation of energy and energy flows (rather than water volume or mass flows) is

This paper presents a novel approach for modeling high-elevation hydropower systems. Conservation of energy and energy flows (rather than water volume or mass flows) is used as the basis for modeling more than 135 high-elevation high-head hydropower sites throughout California. The unusual energy basis for reservoir modeling allows for development of hydropower operations models for a large number of plants to estimate large-scale system behavior without the expense and time needed to develop traditional streamflow and reservoir volume-based models in absence of storage and release capacity, penstock head, and efficiency information. Potential applications of the developed Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) include examination of the effects of climate change and energy prices on system-wide generation and hydropower revenues. An extensive comparison of the EBHOM with a traditional hydropower optimization model used in California produced similar results and indicated good reliability of EBHOM’s predictions.

Modeling Cost, Energy, and Total Organic Carbon Trade-Offs for Stormwater Spreading Basin Systems Receiving Recycled Water Produced Using Membrane-Based, Ozone-Based, and Hybrid Advanced Treatment Trains

American Chemical Society (ACS) | January 31st, 2019

To address water scarcity, cities are pursuing options for augmenting groundwater recharge with recycled water. Ozone-based treatment trains comprising ozone and biologic

To address water scarcity, cities are pursuing options for augmenting groundwater recharge with recycled water. Ozone-based treatment trains comprising ozone and biologically activated carbon potentially offer cost-effective alternatives to membrane-based treatment, the standard process for potable reuse in numerous countries. However, regulations in multiple states effectively limit the extent to which ozone-based treatment alone can produce recycled water for groundwater recharge. To investigate the trade-offs between treatment costs and regulatory constraints, this study presents methods for modeling and optimizing designs for (1) producing recycled water using membrane-based treatment, ozone-based treatment, and hybrid treatment trains comprising ozone-based treatment with a membrane sidestream, and (2) delivering that water to stormwater spreading basins. We present a case study of Los Angeles, CA, to demonstrate the model’s application under realistic conditions, including regulations that limit spreading recycled water based on its concentration of total organic carbon and the extent of dilution. While the membrane-based treatment train exhibits economies of scale, we demonstrate how regulatory constraints create a diseconomies of scale effect for hybrid treatment systems because larger scales necessitate a higher proportion of recycled water undergo membrane treatment. Nevertheless, relative to membrane-based treatment, we identify opportunities for ozone-based or hybrid treatment trains to reduce treatment costs and energy use by up to 62% and 59%, respectively, for systems with up to 1 m3/s (23 million gallons per day) mean water recycling rate, potentially lowering the barrier for decentralized water recycling systems. This modeling approach could inform planning and policy regarding recycled water projects for groundwater recharge through spreading basins and, with additional modification, other potable reuse applications.

Modeling Functional Flows in California’s Rivers

Frontiers in Environmental Science (Frontiers) | March 11th, 2022

Modeling guides groundwater management in a basin with river–aquifer interactions

California Agriculture (UCANR) | March 13th, 2018

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 seeks to maintain groundwater discharge to streams to support environmental goals. In Scott Valley, in Siskiyou

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 seeks to maintain groundwater discharge to streams to support environmental goals. In Scott Valley, in Siskiyou County, the Scott River and its tributaries are an important salmonid spawning habitat, and about 10% of average annual Scott River stream flow comes from groundwater. The local groundwater advisory committee is developing groundwater management alternatives that would increase summer and early fall stream flows. We developed a model to provide a framework to evaluate those alternatives. We first created a water budget for the Scott Valley groundwater basin and integrated the detailed, spatiotemporally distributed water budget results into a computer model of the basin that simultaneously accounted for groundwater flow, stream flow and landscape water fluxes. Different conceptual representations (using the MODFLOW RIV package and MODFLOW SFR package) of the stream–aquifer boundary provided significantly different results in the seasonal dynamics of groundwater–surface water fluxes. As groundwater sustainability agencies draw up plans to meet SGMA requirements, they must choose and test simulation tools carefully.

Modeling Land Subsidence Using InSAR and Airborne Electromagnetic Data

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 13th, 2019

Land subsidence as a result of groundwater overpumping in the San Joaquin Valley, California, is associated with the loss of groundwater storage and aquifer contaminatio

Land subsidence as a result of groundwater overpumping in the San Joaquin Valley, California, is associated with the loss of groundwater storage and aquifer contamination. Although the physical processes governing land subsidence are well understood, building predictive models of subsidence is challenging because so much subsurface information is required to do so accurately. For the first time, we integrate airborne electromagnetic data, representing the subsurface, with subsidence data, mapped by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), to model deformation. By combining both data sets, we are able to solve for hydrologic and geophysical properties of the subsurface to effectively model the complex spatiotemporal process of deformation. The resulting model reveals that roughly 3 m of subsidence has occurred at one location of our study area from 1990 to 2018. This model also allows us to predict subsidence more accurately under future hydrologic scenarios, which is needed to develop plans for sustainable groundwater use.

Modeling residential development in California from 2000 to 2050: Integrating wildfire risk, wildland and agricultural encroachment

Land Use Policy (Elsevier) | November 1st, 2014

Between 1940 and 2000, nearly 10 million housing units were constructed throughout California. This increased interaction between human and natural communities creates a

Between 1940 and 2000, nearly 10 million housing units were constructed throughout California. This increased interaction between human and natural communities creates a number of significant socio-ecological challenges. Here we present a novel spatially explicit model that allows better characterization of the extent and intensity of future housing settlements using three development scenarios between 2000 and 2050. We estimate that California’s exurban land classes will replace nearly 12 million acres of wild and agricultural lands. This will increase threats to ecosystems and those presented by wild fire, as the number of houses in ‘very high’ wildfire severity zones increases by nearly 1 million.

Modeling the dispersal of the San Francisco Bay plume over the Northern and central California shelf

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (Elsevier) | April 19th, 2023

High-resolution simulations by the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) were used to investigate the dispersal of the San Francisco Bay (SFB) plume over the northern-cen

High-resolution simulations by the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) were used to investigate the dispersal of the San Francisco Bay (SFB) plume over the northern-central California continental shelf during the period of 2011 to 2012. The modeled bulk dynamics of surface currents and state variables showed many similarities to corresponding observations. After entering the Pacific Ocean through the Golden Gate, the SFB plume is dispersed across the shelf via three pathways: (i) along the southern coast towards Monterey Bay, (ii) along the northern coast towards Point Arena, and (iii) an offshore pathway restricted within the shelf break. On the two-year mean timescale, the along-shore zone of impact of the northward-dispersed plume is about 1.5 times longer than that of the southern branch. Due to the opposite surface Ekman transports induced by the northerly or southerly winds, the southern plume branch occupies a broader cross-shore extent, roughly twice as wide as the northern branch which extends roughly two times deeper due to coastal downwelling. Besides these mean characteristics, the SFB plume dispersal also shows considerable temporal variability in response to various forcings, with wind and surface-current forcing most strongly related to the dispersing direction. Applying constituent-oriented age theory, we determine that it can be as long as 50 days since the SFB plume was last in contact with SFB before being flushed away from the Gulf of the Farallones. This study sheds light on the transport and fate of SFB plume and its impact zone with implications for California’s marine ecosystems.

Modeling the dynamic penetration depth of post-1950s water in unconfined aquifers using environmental tracers: Central Valley, California

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | December 5th, 2022

The penetration depth of post-1950s recharge (D-1950) in aquifers is a marker that is frequently used to identify groundwater that is susceptible to anthropogenic contami

The penetration depth of post-1950s recharge (D-1950) in aquifers is a marker that is frequently used to identify groundwater that is susceptible to anthropogenic contamination. Here, we compute D-1950 values at wells, interpolate them in space, and project them across time to map the moving front of modern recharge in four dimensions in the Central Valley aquifer system, California, USA. Tracers of groundwater age (tritium, carbon-14, noble gases, sulfur hexafluoride, and chlorofluorocarbons) were collected at 650 wells spatially distributed throughout the Central Valley and were fit to a lumped-parameter model that assumes a logarithmic age-depth profile in the aquifer. For samples where tritium was present (>0.3 tritium units), the model was used to predict D-1950 at wells screened above or across the modern-premodern interface (n = 484). Wells with samples where tritium was absent (≤0.3 tritium units) were used to define the depth beyond which groundwater is completely premodern (n = 166). Predicted D-1950 values were below the depth of screen bottoms for wells where groundwater is completely modern, and above the depth of screen tops for wells where groundwater is completely premodern. The interpolated surface of D-1950 is dynamic, less prone to extreme values, and produces maps with lower interpolation errors due to a higher spatial density of wells than maps based on the depth of premodern groundwater. Between 2005 and 2025, D-1950 is expected to deepen by 11 and 12 m in the northern and southern parts of the Central Valley, respectively. Areas where D-1950 increases rapidly are likely to see increases in nitrate and other anthropogenic contaminants associated with the downward moving front of modern water.

Modeling the effect of habitat availability and quality on endangered winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production in the Sacramento Valley

Ecological Modelling (Elsevier) | March 13th, 2021

Reconciliation between water uses and sustaining aquatic species populations requires an effort to identify and quantify essential habitat characteristics for ecosystem h

Reconciliation between water uses and sustaining aquatic species populations requires an effort to identify and quantify essential habitat characteristics for ecosystem health and valuation methods to predict ecosystem response to restoration actions. This process is particularly challenging for anadromous fish species such as California's Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon, due to their limited geographic range and diverse life history habitat requirements. Tools, such as life-cycle models, are needed to manage population dynamics and quantify the composite effects of processes across space and time. Nevertheless, complex institutions can hinder result interpretation and communication, and limit model use in decision-making. This paper focuses on the federally endangered and endemic Sacramento River winter-run Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by developing a Winter-Run Habitat-based Population Model (WRHAP). WRHAP is a conceptual, freshwater rearing stage model that includes alternative rearing habitats reported in the literature (e.g., floodplains, off-channel and tributaries), defines rules of habitat use based on instream conditions, and incorporates a juvenile growth module that combines bioenergetics modeling with empirical growth rates. Model outputs reasonably follow observed out-migration patterns and provide a realistic smolt size distribution arriving at the San Francisco Bay. This effort demonstrates the importance of currently “non-critical” habitats (as defined by the Endangered Species Act) for juvenile development, with floodplain habitat contributing to a quarter of out-migrating biomass (despite < 18% availability and <10% of total rearing days), and off-channel growth being one of the most sensitive parameters (explaining ~13% of average juvenile weight variance). The model shows the utility of a simple population model to explore relationships between habitat quality/quantity and juvenile development, and to assist water/environmental management and decision-making processes focused on species recovery.

Modeling the impact of future rainfall changes on the effectiveness of urban stormwater control measures

Springer Nature | February 19th, 2024

The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks of stormwater pollution and urban flooding in the coming

The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks of stormwater pollution and urban flooding in the coming decades. Using outputs from an ensemble of global climate models to drive a high spatial resolution stormwater model, we analyzed climate change impacts on urban stormwater runoff and control measures for 23 cities across the United States. Runoff model outputs for two future emissions scenarios ending in 2055 were compared against a historical scenario to assess changes. All cities showed increases in average annual stormwater runoff, with changes up to 30% over the next 30 years due to a greater frequency of high intensity storm events. Runoff model outputs showed substantial variation across cities with untreated stormwater runoff increasing by as much as 48%. Patterns of future runoff impacts within cities will affect the performance of distributed treatment strategies such as Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) to meet municipal water quality improvement and runoff reduction goals. Results indicate that adoption of adaptable design standards and decision support tools that readily accommodate projected precipitation changes are critical for supporting more resilient designs of stormwater control measures.