August 2025 Most Probable 24-Month Study
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 15th, 2025
The August 2024 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2025, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, a Shortage Condition consistent with Section 2.D.1.a will govern the operation of Lake Mead for calendar year (CY) 2025. In addition, Section III.B of Exhibit 1 to the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) Agreement will also govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2025. Lower Basin projections for Lake Mead take into consideration additional conservation efforts under the LC Conservation Program.
The August 2025 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2026, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,575 feet and at or above 3,525 feet and the Lake Mead elevation to be at or above 1,025 feet. Consistent with Section 6.C.1 of the Interim Guidelines, and Section 6.E of the 2024 Interim Guidelines SEIS ROD, the operational tier for Lake Powell in WY 2026 is the Mid-Elevation Release Tier and the water year release volume from Lake Powell is projected to be 7.48 maf. Given the hydrologic variability of the Colorado River System, the actual water year 2026 operations, and being consistent with Section 6.E of the 2024 Interim Guidelines SEIS ROD, the projected release from Lake Powell in water year 2026 may be less than 7.48 maf.
The August 2025 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2026, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, a Shortage Condition consistent with Section 2.D.1.a will govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2026. In addition, Section III.B of Exhibit 1 to the Lower Basin DCP Agreement will also govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2026. Lower Basin projections for Lake Mead take into consideration additional conservation efforts under the LC Conservation Program.
The 2026 operational tier determinations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead will be documented in the 2026 AOP, which is currently in development.
Related scenarios:
Keywords
Colorado River, drought, modeling, upper watershed management, water project operations