Potential Impacts of Reduced Inflows to the Salton Sea: Forecasting Non-market Damages

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | September 28th, 2022

Punctuated Sediment Discharge during Early Pliocene Birth of the Colorado River: Evidence from Regional Stratigraphy, Sedimentology, and Paleontology

Sedimentary Geology (Elsevier) | January 1st, 2018

The Colorado River in the southwestern U.S. provides an excellent natural laboratory for studying the origins of a continent-scale river system, because deposits th

The Colorado River in the southwestern U.S. provides an excellent natural laboratory for studying the origins of a continent-scale river system, because deposits that formed prior to and during river initiation are well exposed in the lower river valley and nearby basinal sink. This paper presents a synthesis of regional stratigraphy, sedimentology, and micropaleontology from the southern Bouse Formation and similar-age deposits in the western Salton Trough, which we use to interpret processes that controlled the birth and early evolution of the Colorado River. The southern Bouse Formation is divided into three laterally persistent members: basal carbonate, siliciclastic, and upper bioclastic members. Basal carbonate accumulated in a tide-dominated marine embayment during a rise of relative sea level between ~ 6.3 and 5.4 Ma, prior to arrival of the Colorado River. The transition to green claystone records initial rapid influx of river water and its distal clay wash load into the subtidal marine embayment at ~ 5.4–5.3 Ma. This was followed by rapid southward progradation of the Colorado River delta, establishment of the earliest through-flowing river, and deposition of river-derived turbidites in the western Salton Trough (Wind Caves paleocanyon) between ~ 5.3 and 5.1 Ma. Early delta progradation was followed by regional shut-down of river sand output between ~ 5.1 and 4.8 Ma that resulted in deposition of marine clay in the Salton Trough, retreat of the delta, and re-flooding of the lower river valley by shallow marine water that deposited the Bouse upper bioclastic member. Resumption of sediment discharge at ~ 4.8 Ma drove massive progradation of fluvial-deltaic deposits back down the river valley into the northern Gulf and Salton Trough. These results provide evidence for a discontinuous, start-stop-start history of sand output during initiation of the Colorado River that is not predicted by existing models for this system. The underlying controls on punctuated sediment discharge are assessed by comparing the depositional chronology to the record of global sea-level change. The lower Colorado River Valley and Salton Trough experienced marine transgression during a gradual fall in global sea level between ~ 6.3 and 5.5 Ma, implicating tectonic subsidence as the main driver of latest Miocene relative sea-level rise. A major fall of global sea level at 5.3 Ma outpaced subsidence and drove regional delta progradation, earliest flushing of Colorado River sand into the northern Gulf of California, and erosion of Bouse basal carbonate and siliciclastic members. The lower Colorado River valley was re-flooded by shallow marine waters during smaller changes in global sea level ~ 5.1–4.8 Ma, after the river first ran through it, which requires a mechanism to stop delivery of sand to the lower river valley. We propose that tectonically controlled subsidence along the lower Colorado River, upstream of the southern Bouse study area, temporarily trapped sediment and stopped delivery of sand to the lower river valley and northern Gulf of California for ~ 200–300 kyr. Massive progradation of the fluvial-deltaic system back down the river valley into the Salton Trough starting ~ 4.8–4.5 Ma apparently was driven by a huge increase in sediment discharge that overwhelmed the sediment-storage capacity of sub-basins along the lower river corridor and established the fully integrated river channel network.

Recent global decline in endorheic basin water storages

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 30th, 2018

Endorheic (hydrologically landlocked) basins spatially concur with arid/semi-arid climates. Given limited precipitation but high potential evaporation, their water storag

Endorheic (hydrologically landlocked) basins spatially concur with arid/semi-arid climates. Given limited precipitation but high potential evaporation, their water storage is vulnerable to subtle flux perturbations, which are exacerbated by global warming and human activities. Increasing regional evidence suggests a probably recent net decline in endorheic water storage, but this remains unquantified at a global scale. By integrating satellite observations and hydrological modelling, we reveal that during 2002–2016 the global endorheic system experienced a widespread water loss of about 106.3 Gt yr−1, attributed to comparable losses in surface water, soil moisture and groundwater. This decadal decline, disparate from water storage fluctuations in exorheic basins, appears less sensitive to El Niño–Southern Oscillation-driven climate variability, which implies a possible response to longer-term climate conditions and human water management. In the mass-conserved hydrosphere, such an endorheic water loss not only exacerbates local water stress, but also imposes excess water on exorheic basins, leading to a potential sea level rise that matches the contribution of nearly half of the land glacier retreat (excluding Greenland and Antarctica). Given these dual ramifications, we suggest the necessity for long-term monitoring of water storage variation in the global endorheic system and the inclusion of its net contribution to future sea level budgeting.

Report on Salton Sea Projects

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | April 8th, 2016

Formed in 1905 when Colorado River flood waters breached an irrigation diversion structure and caused the river to temporarily flow into the then-dry Salton Sink, today�

Formed in 1905 when Colorado River flood waters breached an irrigation diversion structure and caused the river to temporarily flow into the then-dry Salton Sink, today’s Salton Sea is only the latest in a long succession of waterbodies to occupy the area. At 350 square miles, California’s largest lake is hydrologically connected to the Colorado River system and has been largely maintained since the 1905 event by irrigation water from agricultural production in the Imperial Valley. The historic Quantification Settlement Agreement (2003) provided California the means to implement water transfers and supply programs that allowed the state to live within its 4.4 million acre-foot basic annual apportionment of Colorado River water. Though long plagued by problems associated with its terminality—and resultant accumulation of salts, nutrients, and other impurities—the water transfers contained in the QSA meant a hastening of its ecological decline. Mitigation waters were provided for the Sea in the agreement, but are set to expire in 2017.  In response to growing concern about the impending and current deterioration of conditions at the Salton Sea, California Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. in May 2015 created the Salton Sea Task Force to rapidly evaluate and take action to bring certainty to the Sea’s future and develop a series of findings that would guide further action at the lake. To coordinate and facilitate the actions the Governor also created the position of Assistant Secretary for Salton Sea Policy within the California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA).  The Salton Sea Task Force issued their findings in November 2015, which called for the development of a Salton Sea Management Program that covered three major elements: sustainable habitat; air quality and potential private sector energy development. The Task Force also acknowledged that a successful program depends on the following three principles: 1) strong state, federal, and local partnerships; 2) clear and achievable milestones with state directed plans to achieve them; and 3) committed participation from all stakeholders who share the goals of protecting air quality, reducing habitat impacts, and maintaining a secure Colorado River Water Supply. Task Force findings also contained a series of actions for implementation by the California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) that included the development of a Salton Sea Management Plan with short and midterm goals for habitat and dust suppression projects, an improved public awareness and local partnerships program and an accelerated implementation of planning, permitting and construction. 

Response in the water quality of the Salton Sea, California, to changes in phosphorus loading: an empirical modeling approach

Hydrobiologia (Springer) | January 10th, 2008

Salton Sea, California, like many other lakes, has become eutrophic because of excessive nutrient loading, primarily phosphorus (P). A Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL)

Salton Sea, California, like many other lakes, has become eutrophic because of excessive nutrient loading, primarily phosphorus (P). A Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) is being prepared for P to reduce the input of P to the Sea. In order to better understand how P-load reductions should affect the average annual water quality of this terminal saline lake, three different eutrophication programs (BATHTUB, WiLMS, and the Seepage Lake Model) were applied. After verifying that specific empirical models within these programs were applicable to this saline lake, each model was calibrated using water quality and nutrient-loading data for 1999 and then used to simulate the effects of specific P-load reductions. Model simulations indicate that a 50% decrease in external P loading would decrease near-surface total phosphorus concentrations (TP) by 25– 50%. Application of other empirical models demonstrated that this decrease in loading should decrease near-surface chlorophyll a concentrations (Chl a) by 17–63% and increase Secchi depths (SD) by 38–97%. The wide range in estimated responses in Chl a and SD were primarily caused by uncertainty in how non-algal turbidity would respond to P-load reductions. If only the models most applicable to the Salton Sea are considered, a 70–90% P-load reduction is required for the Sea to be classified as moderately eutrophic (trophic state index of 55). These models simulate steady-state conditions in the Sea; therefore, it is difficult to ascertain how long it would take for the simulated changes to occur after load reductions.

Salton Sea Fisheries Long-term Monitoring Sampling Report: Summer 2017

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | July 13th, 2017

In early 2016, historic indices of tilapia abundance at the Salton Sea appeared to have reversed: tilapia fry were no longer observed in places where fish were regularly

In early 2016, historic indices of tilapia abundance at the Salton Sea appeared to have reversed: tilapia fry were no longer observed in places where fish were regularly visible in the past, piscivorous bird numbers at the lake were severely reduced, anglers were only catching a small fraction of past numbers of fish, and only a few small fish kills were observed. As observations of these conditions continued in early 2017, the question of whether the tilapia population was still viable was the impetus for the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) to re-initiate gillnetting efforts.

Salton Sea Management Program Conceptual Project Implementation and Cost Estimates to Meet State Board Targets

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | April 27th, 2017

The Salton Sea Management Program (SSMP) has developed a 10-year plan for Phase I that envisions a range of activities for habitat creation and dust management as

The Salton Sea Management Program (SSMP) has developed a 10-year plan for Phase I that envisions a range of activities for habitat creation and dust management as the Salton Sea recedes over 2018–2028. The California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), through an order revising Order WRO 2002–0013, outlines annual and cumulative target areas for restoration through creation of habitat and dust suppression projects. These targets are defined for each year, ranging from a cumulative 500 acres by January 1, 2019, to a cumulative 29,800 acres by January 1, 2029, with a minimum 50 percent of the area being designated for fish and wildlife habitat projects. Areas around the sea are proposed for restoration projects, specifically at the southern end of the sea near the inflows of the Alamo and New rivers, and the northern end of the sea near the inflow of the Whitewater River. In a prior document (Salton Sea Management Plan Phase I: 10 Year Plan, March 2018), an overview of the project areas and activities was presented. This document presents a high-level plan for achieving the annual goals in the SWRCB order, by means of creation of wet habitat and dust control areas in different parts of the Salton Sea lakebed. This document identifies conceptual habitat ponds to be created, the associated wetted areas, and the additional dust control areas required to meet the order targets. For each of the conceptual project areas, there are estimates for berm lengths, heights, and needs for additional infrastructure, such as pumps and pipelines, causeways for equipment access, and levee extensions along river channels for flood protection of newly created habitat. Planned cross sections for the different types of linear structures are shown. Cost estimates are provided for each of the project areas over time to develop a total cost estimate. The conceptual habitat and dust control areas are based on the best current information on Salton Sea bathymetry, and demonstrate a reasonable path forward to attain the State Board order targets. The costs associated with these targets as presented in this document can be used for additional planning as part of the SSMP over the next decade. It is recognized that the actual footprints of individual projects may change in future years as better information becomes available on lakebed elevations, and relationships with other non-SSMP projects for habitat and dust control are better understood. These cost estimates are a refinement of estimates presented in the Salton Sea Management Plan Phase I: 10-Year Plan (March 2017). The cost estimates incorporate the best available cost information, and include the development of conceptual berm designs and supporting infrastructure, such as water diversions, pumps, and pipelines, and levees for river extensions. For these reasons, the cost estimate presented here supersedes the March 2017 estimate of $383 million for the 10-year implementation. But, all cost estimates at this stage are considered preliminary, and subject to revision as new field and construction data become available, and as designs are adjusted to best meet overall program needs. In the remainder of this document, two key topics are presented. In Chapter 2, there are estimates of the projected elevations of the Salton Sea over the 2018–2028 period, based on a hydrologic model of the sea. This is needed to allow estimation of exposed lakebed with the goal of constructing new habitat under dry conditions. Proposed conceptual project footprints, design and cost assumptions, and cost summaries are presented in Chapter 3.

Salton Sea Management Program Phase I: 10-Year Plan

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | March 1st, 2017

Under the leadership of Governor Edmund G Brown Jr., the 2014 California Water Action Plan set forth a vision for California water management that balances statew

Under the leadership of Governor Edmund G Brown Jr., the 2014 California Water Action Plan set forth a vision for California water management that balances statewide water supply security with the protection of public, economic and ecological health. The Salton Sea offers a unique opportunity to preserve these values by leveraging a convergence of support from federal, state, and local stakeholders for a smaller and sustainable sea achieved through the projects outlined in this plan. The Salton Sea is California’s largest lake. Thirty-five miles long and 15 miles wide, the desert lake extends from the Coachella Valley into the Imperial Valley. Though saltier than the ocean, the Sea supports an abundance of fish, a food source for millions of migratory birds on the Pacific Flyway. Managing the Sea’s natural, agricultural, andmunicipal water inflows to maximize bird and fish habitat and minimize fine-particle air pollution will allow California to protect regional health, ecological wealth and a stable water supply. The Salton Sea formed in the Salton Trough in Imperial and Riverside counties. Much of the trough is below sea level and has a long history of periodic inundation from the shifting delta of the Colorado River or from infrequent storm events. The last Colorado River inundation of the area occurred in 1905 when an irrigation canal inlet gate failed and flooded much of the area. Since then, lake inflows have been primarily from agricultural activities in the area. Inflows from the New and Alamo rivers are primarily farm return flow water, although there is some inflow from Mexico, particularly during large precipitation events. Over the last several decades, water levels at the Salton Sea have declined and salinity concentrations have increased due to climate fluctuations, agricultural conservation measures, cropping practices and reduced inflows from Mexico. Recent water transfers from the Imperial Valley have further accelerated the rate of lake elevation decline and have increased the rate of salinity concentration. Declining lake levels threaten important bird habitat and pose public health risk due to particulate air pollution. Over the last 40 years numerous ideas and plans have been proposed by various entities to restore the Salton Sea. None have been implemented for a variety of reasons, including lack of a shared vision, funding constraints, and reduced inflows. In 2015, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. formed the Salton Sea Task Force with principle staff and members of various state agencies to identify short- and medium- term goals to respond to air quality and ecological threats at the Salton Sea. The Task Force developed actions for the Salton Sea that included: Develop and implement the Salton Sea Management Program through departments within the California Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Agencies Improve public outreach and local partnerships Accelerate project implementation and delivery Meet a short-term goal of 9,000 acres to 12,000 acres of dust suppression and habitat projects Establish a medium-term goal of 18,000 acres to 25,000 acres of dust suppression and habitat projects. The State’s Salton Sea Management Plan (SSMP) has several phases of development to protect air quality and ecosystem values at the Salton Sea. This draft technical memorandum prepared by the State of California outlines the SSMP’s first, 10-year phase (Phase I Plan). It will guide State and federal actions to meet the commitments outlined in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) executed on August 31, 2016, and amended on January 18, 2017 by the Department of Interior (DOI) and the California Natural Resource Agency (CNRA). The MOU, among other things, identified a goal of developing projects to protect or improve air quality, wildlife habitat, and water quality as necessary to minimize human health and ecosystem impact at the Salton Sea in the mid-term. While guided by the MOU, the SSMP is a longer-term process that has been developed and will be implemented by the State of California. This first phase of development has been planned to expedite construction of habitat and to suppress dust on areas of playa that have been or will be exposed at the Salton Sea by 2028. The Phase I Plan outlines the process for developing additional management measurements for the Salton Sea that will be implemented in later phases. The Phase I Plan also addresses the requirements of Assembly Bill 1095 (Garcia 2015) by including those projects deemed “shovel-ready projects” and including estimates of cost. Those projects include: Water backbone infrastructure, which will provide conveyance of river and Salton Sea water to air quality and habitat projects. SSMP air quality and habitat projects associated with the water backbone infrastructure The CNRA’s Phase I Species Conservation Habitat Project (saline impoundments along the southern shore to support fish and wildlife) Red Hill Bay Project, an effort of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Imperial Irrigation District to restore habitat on the southeastern shore. Torres-Martinez Wetland project, an effort of the Torres Martinez Desert Cahuilla Indians to build shallow wetlands along the northern edge of the Salton Sea. The Phase I Plan considers the implications of the 17-year drought on the Colorado River. The drought may force reductions of Colorado River water to the Lower Basin States, which in turn could impact inflows to the Salton Sea. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, seven Colorado River basin states and key principals of several water management agencies have been developing a Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) that includes implemented and proposed actions to address the potential water shortage. The Department of Interior Order No. 3344 - Actions to Address Effects of Historic Drought on Colorado River Water Supplies (DOI, January18, 2017) further outlines the details of the DCP. One component of the Phase I Plan is to evaluate the current hydrologic modeling for the Salton Sea and to include some of the proposed actions in the model to evaluate their potential impact to Salton Sea inflows.   As the Air Quality Planning and Implementation section of this document notes, the air quality mitigation will consist of measures to keep exposed playa wet or vegetated. A series of Best Available Control Measures (BACM) are being evaluated by the Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) Water Transfer mitigation program, which was created under a 2003 agricultural-to-urban water transfer agreement involving the State of California, the Imperial Irrigation District, Coachella Valley Water District, and the San Diego County Water Authority. The work of determining these best strategies will be paid for by the QSA Joint Powers Authority. The Phase I Plan involves coordination among Imperial Irrigation District, Imperial County Air Pollution Control District, South Coast Air Quality Management District and other agencies to ensure that the latest information about how lakebed exposure may affect air quality is included in the development of BACM pilot projects. In order to provide ample time for public input into this plan, the SSMP will schedule several regional workshops to solicit input from community members and stakeholders as well as provide necessary time for general public comment. This process will be announced via the program’s website. Associated documents: Salton Sea Management Program Conceptual Project Implementation and Cost Estimates to Meet State Board Targets, 4/27/2018 Appendix 1. Figures Appendix 2. Cost Projections Appendix 3. Ten-Year Phase I Plan Schedule Plan Spanish Translation: Programa de Gestión de Salton Sea Fase I: Plan de 10 Años *Plan appendices index from California Natural Resources Agency.

Salton Sea Management Program Phase I: 10-Year Plan Appendix 1. Figures

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | March 1st, 2017

Salton Sea Management Program Phase I: 10-Year Plan Appendix 2. Cost Projections

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | March 1st, 2017