The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 13th, 2014

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.

The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 13th, 2014

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.

The Key Role of Heavy Precipitation Events in Climate Model Disagreements of Future Annual Precipitation Changes in California

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | August 6th, 2013

Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over Cal- ifornia, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt

Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over Cal- ifornia, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human-induced climate change. This dis- agreement is explored in terms of daily precipitation frequency and intensity. It is found that divergent model projections of changes in the incidence of rare heavy (.60 mm day21) daily precipitation events explain much of the model disagreement on annual time scales, yet represent only 0.3% of precipitating days and 9% of annual precipitation volume. Of the 25 downscaled model projections examined here, 21 agree that pre- cipitation frequency will decrease by the 2060s, with a mean reduction of 6–14 days yr21. This reduces Cal- ifornia’s mean annual precipitation by about 5.7%. Partly offsetting this, 16 of the 25 projections agree that daily precipitation intensity will increase, which accounts for a model average 5.3% increase in annual pre- cipitation. Between these conflicting tendencies, 12 projections show drier annual conditions by the 2060s and 13 show wetter. These results are obtained from 16 global general circulation models downscaled with dif- ferent combinations of dynamical methods [Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), Regional Spectral Model (RSM), and version 3 of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3)] and statistical methods [bias cor- rection with spatial disaggregation (BCSD) and bias correction with constructed analogs (BCCA)], although not all downscaling methods were applied to each global model. Model disagreements in the projected change in occurrence of the heaviest precipitation days (.60 mm day21) account for the majority of disagreement in the projected change in annual precipitation, and occur preferentially over the Sierra Nevada and Northern California. When such events are excluded, nearly twice as many projections show drier future conditions.

The Lower Colorado Basin Fiscal Years 2019 & 2020

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | January 4th, 2021

The magnitude and spatial patterns of historical and future hydrologic change in California’s watersheds

Ecological Society of America (ESA) | February 12th, 2015

Process-based models that link climate and hydrology permit improved assessments of climate change impacts among watersheds. We used the Basin Characterization Model (BCM

Process-based models that link climate and hydrology permit improved assessments of climate change impacts among watersheds. We used the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model to (1) ask what is the magnitude of historical and projected future change in the hydrology of California’s watersheds; (2) test the spatial congruence of watersheds with the most historical and future hydrologic change; and (3) identify watersheds with high levels of hydrologic change under drier and wetter future climates. We assessed change for 5135 watersheds over a 60-year historical period and compared it to 90-year future projections. Watershed change was analyzed for climatic water deficit, April 1st snowpack, recharge, and runoff. Watersheds were ranked by change for the historical and twofuture scenarios. We developed a normalized index of hydrologic change that combined the four variables, and identified which watersheds show the most spatial congruence of large historical change and continued change under the two futures. Of the top 20%of all watersheds (1028), 591 in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and Northwestern eco-regions have high spatial congruence across all time periods. Among watersheds where change accelerates in the future, but not historically, a majority are congruent between both climate models, predominantly in the Sierra Nevada, Cascade Ranges and the Northwestern eco-regions. This congruence of impacts in watersheds under drier or wetter scenarios is driven by snowpack, but in areas with low snowpack, hydrologic change varied spatially depending on projected precipitation and temperature, with 151 watersheds in Northwestern California showing high levels of drying under the drier scenario, while 103 watersheds in Central western and Southwestern California show increasing hydrologic activity under the wetter scenario. In some regions, the loss of snowpack allows the cycle of runoff and recharge to function without delay represented by springtime snow melt, causing these watersheds to become more immediately hydrologically responsive to changing climate. The study also found watersheds with low rainfall that have already passed through their highest response to changing climate, and show less future change. The methods used here can also be used to identify watersheds resilient to changing climate.

The Magnitude of California's Water Challenges

UnIversity of California, Davis (UC Davis) | June 4th, 2024

California will see increasing water scarcity from climate change, the end of overdrafting groundwater and the Colorado River’s massive reservoirs, increased water dedi

California will see increasing water scarcity from climate change, the end of overdrafting groundwater and the Colorado River’s massive reservoirs, increased water dedications for environmental flows, and other factors, such as salination of aquifers and land subsidence reducing canal capacities. Total reduction in average water availability in the coming decades will likely range from 4.6 to 9 million acre-feet per year. For context, this is equivalent to the water use of 1 – 2.8 million acres of irrigated agriculture or most urban water use in California. Perhaps 20-30% of this loss will likely be addressed by ongoing water conservation and supply improvements, being planned and implemented, leaving a 3 – 7.2 million acre-feet/year likely net average difference between statewide water demands and availability.

The Metropolitan Aqueduct: Colorado River Water for Cities in the Metropolitan Water District

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) | March 12th, 1931

The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California Annual Report for the Fiscal Year July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) | December 1st, 2019

The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California History and First Annual Report for the Period Ending June 30, 1938

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) | January 20th, 1939

The most important issue about water is not supply, but how it is used

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 14th, 2023