Snow monitoring at strategic locations improves water supply forecasting more than basin-wide mapping

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 15th, 2025

In the Western United States, water supply forecasting has traditionally relied on snow water equivalent measurements at ground-based stations due to their strong correla

In the Western United States, water supply forecasting has traditionally relied on snow water equivalent measurements at ground-based stations due to their strong correlations with streamflow volume during spring and summer. However, stations are sparse and sample a small area, prompting interest in spatially complete – but costly – basin-wide mapping from airborne surveys or future satellite missions. Here we show that adding strategic measurements at snow hotspots – localized areas with untapped information for predicting streamflow – consistently outperforms spatially complete surveys that provide basin-average snowpack, both in basins with and without existing stations. While both improve forecast skill, hotspot monitoring increases correlations with streamflow volume by 11-14% (median) across 390 basins, compared to 4% from basin-wide surveys. These findings hold across snowpack datasets, skill metrics, and statistical models. The greatest gains in water supply prediction come from leveraging existing stations and expanding snow measurements to the right places, rather than everywhere.

Snow Survey Procedure Manual

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 1st, 2014

By any measure, California’s agriculture, hydroelectric production, domestic use, riparian health, and recreation all put tremendous demands on the state’s often limi

By any measure, California’s agriculture, hydroelectric production, domestic use, riparian health, and recreation all put tremendous demands on the state’s often limited water resource. Because of California’s Mediterranean climate, little significant precipitation occurs during the summer and autumn months. Accurate assessments of mid-winter precipitation, therefore, are a vital determinant of the state’s available water. During most years, maximum snow water equivalent1 (SWE) in the Sierra Nevada denotes the annual peak of surface water resource. Snow water equivalent is a key index not only for forecasting stream and river flow timing and amount, but for a wide variety of water management decisions targeted days and months into the future. The goal of the snow survey is to obtain an accurate measure of SWE at predetermined locations: snow courses. Snow courses typically have between five and ten measurement points spread out over one or more straight-line transects. Transects can be short, or several hundred meters in length. Some snow courses are coincident with recording or data-transmitting weather instrumentation; many others stand alone in very wild and remote locations. Most snow courses are measured once per month throughout the winter (accumulation) and spring (ablation) seasons, though some may be measured at different frequencies. Several California snow course records go back to the 1920s (some to 1910). Data from the measurements are used to develop—and continuously refine—indices of stream flow for the respective watersheds. A critical first step in characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of California’s SWE is by measuring its 261 snow courses throughout the state. The aim of this document is to address snow survey procedure and equipment, review data collection, and discuss surveyor safety. While some subjects (avalanche safety, wilderness first aid) are, in their entirety, beyond the scope of this work, industry standards and procedures are presented. The author hopes this document will find utility as an office-based training manual for those new to snow surveys, as well as a field guide and reference to all who conduct snow surveys. As of this writing, many advances in the remote sensing (by ground-, aircraft- and spacecraft-based instrumentation) of snow cover are being developed. No doubt these developments in both procedure and instrumentation will continue to advance. However, there currently exists no practical, automated technique with which to measure SWE at the number of locations and at the point-accuracy of ground-based, manual measurements. Manual measurements remain the standard for calibrating and “ground-truthing” automated instrumentation, and have the advantage that they can be obtained independent of most surface and weather conditions. For the foreseeable future, snow surveys will continue to be a vital part of the water management structure in California.

Snow-eater heat waves of the western United States

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | August 5th, 2026

Abrupt snowmelt, triggered by rain-on-snow events or “snow-eater heat waves,” can cause flooding, initiate or accelerate snow drought, and affect water availability.

Abrupt snowmelt, triggered by rain-on-snow events or “snow-eater heat waves,” can cause flooding, initiate or accelerate snow drought, and affect water availability. However, the characteristics (e.g., area, duration, and frequency), impacts, and trends of snow-eater heat waves have received little attention. To address this gap, we developed a method to identify snow-eater heat waves and estimate their melt potential using 20th Century Reanalysis version 3 air temperature data, the TempestExtremes algorithm, and an operational snowmelt model (SNOW-17) across 1850–2015. Melt season snow-eater heat waves typically last 3 to 5 days, with three to five events, doubling snowmelt rates. Seven of 11 spring superfloods are shown to coincide with snow-eater heat waves. Since the 1850s, snow-eater heat waves have increased in area and frequency, decreased in duration, and shifted earlier in the melt season. Incorporating snow-eater heat-wave impacts into SNOW-17 enhances extreme melt estimates, improving water management support tools.

Social and economic impacts of climate

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | August 9th, 2016

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions—such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms—influence the nature of societies and th

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions—such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms—influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent “adaptation gaps,” current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes.

Socio-hydrological drought impacts on urban water affordability

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 19th, 2023

In water-stressed regions, droughts pose a critical challenge to urban water security for low-income households. Droughts reduce water availability, forcing water provide

In water-stressed regions, droughts pose a critical challenge to urban water security for low-income households. Droughts reduce water availability, forcing water providers to invest in additional supplies or enact expensive, short-term emergency measures. These costs are frequently passed on to households through increased rates and surcharges, driving up water bills for low-income households and altering patterns of water consumption. Here we have developed a socio-hydrological modelling approach that integrates hydrology, water infrastructure, utility decision-making and household behaviour to understand the impacts of droughts on household water affordability. We present here an application based on Santa Cruz, California and show that many drought resilience strategies raise water bills for low-income households and lower them for high-income households. We also found that low-income households are most vulnerable to both changing drought characteristics and infrastructure lock-in.

Socio‐ecohydrology and the urban water challenge

Ecohydrology (Wiley) | March 11th, 2011

Urban water systems are highly engineered. However, hydrology and ecology are still closely linked in semi‐arid urban ecosystems in which surface characteristics, veget

Urban water systems are highly engineered. However, hydrology and ecology are still closely linked in semi‐arid urban ecosystems in which surface characteristics, vegetation, and water flows are all highly transformed. Although these systems are human‐dominated, there are many uncertainties in the water budgets of semi‐arid cities, because evapotranspiration, runoff, groundwater recharge, and leakage are poorly constrained. Decision‐making, governance, and socioeconomic factors play important roles in determining urban hydrologic budgets. We offer a framework to integrate these factors in studies that combine biophysical and social dimensions of the urban water system using the example of western US cities, which are facing critical issues in water supply and demand, and which can benefit from a more comprehensive understanding of the factors that determine water consumption, distribution and availability. Because of the severity of the water crisis in the western US, and the biophysical, institutional, and cultural barriers to developing and implementing new water management practices, this region provides useful lessons for addressing water challenges in other regions.

Solano Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan

Solano Subbasin GSA Collaborative | November 30th, 2021

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) encourages groundwater management at the local level. Local entities are responsible for forming Groundwater Sustainabil

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) encourages groundwater management at the local level. Local entities are responsible for forming Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) to develop and implement Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs) to guide sustainable management of groundwater basins or subbasins identified as high or medium priority by the State. Five GSAs in the Solano Subbasin organized to form the Solano Collaborative to develop a single GSP for the Subbasin: Solano Subbasin GSA, Solano Irrigation District GSA, City of Vacaville GSA, Northern Delta GSA, and Sacramento County GSA. The Solano Collaborative together with five other GSAs have adopted the Solano Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan.

Solar Energy and Groundwater in the San Joaquin Valley

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | October 26th, 2022

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) requires groundwater users to bring their basins into balance over the next two decades. In the San Joaquin Valley, this

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) requires groundwater users to bring their basins into balance over the next two decades. In the San Joaquin Valley, this will likely mean taking more than 500,000 acres of agricultural land out of intensive irrigated production. Local and regional economies could be stressed as a result, with some regular employment opportunities in agriculture disappearing and public revenues declining if lands are not put to new uses. As landowners and newly formed groundwater agencies tackle the groundwater deficits in their areas, utility-scale solar development—already an attractive option for landowners owning property with or without water rights—could offer an opportunity to keep lands that exit irrigated production economically productive. Moreover, development could provide multiple benefits by helping to supplement habitat and mitigate dust generation on transitioning lands. However, the expansion of solar hinges on whether state-level energy system planning processes—in conjunction with local land use planning—can address the transmission challenges that threaten the region’s promise as a solar power hub.

Sonoma Valley Groundwater Sustainability Plan

Sonoma Water | January 29th, 2022

South American Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan

Sacramento County | October 29th, 2021

Groundwater management in the South American Subbasin (SASb) has been occurring for decades. Stable groundwater conditions in terms of groundwater levels, storage volume

Groundwater management in the South American Subbasin (SASb) has been occurring for decades. Stable groundwater conditions in terms of groundwater levels, storage volume, and interconnected surface waters have been achieved due to a variety of historically implemented projects and management actions. To ensure continued sustainable conditions allowing for future groundwater use to the benefit of all users in the SASb over the next 50-years, with climate change considered, a groundwater sustainability plan (GSP) has been developed and will be implemented to achieve the sustainability goal for the basin in the next 20 years. Due to size, this file has been divided into eight parts. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8